Brazilian elections

[watt price tully]

If you think Donald Trump is a self centred dangerous narcissistic lunatic who puts himself before anyone else & were taken aback by the incidents of January 6, 2000 elections with the violent attempted insurrection you ain’t seen nothin’ yet:


Bolsanaro is Trump writ worse:

https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/latenightlive/is-the-bolsonaro-era-about-to-end-/101475650

https://www.theage.com.au/world/south-america/world-s-most-important-power-shift-no-it-s-not-the-british-monarchy-20220927-p5blg1.html

🤦‍♂️😱

[David]

It's my birthday on the 2nd. Bolsonaro getting the flick that day would be a nice present.

[watt price tully]

[stui magpie]

Bolsanaro seems like an award winning douche. I don't see it ending well.

[Jezza]

1st round results:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) = 57,255,683 (48.43%)
Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) = 51,070,935 (43.20%) - INCUMBENT
Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) = 4,915,261 (4.16%)
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) = 3,599,188 (3.04%)
Soraya Thronicke (Brazil Union) = 600,932 (0.51%)
Luiz Felipe d'Avila (New Party) = 559,680 (0.47%)
Kelmon Souza (Brazilian Labour Party) = 81,127 (0.07%)
Leonardo Péricles (Popular Unity) = 53,518 (0.05%)
Sofia Manzano (Brazilian Communist Party) = 45,615 (0.04%)
Vera Lúcia Salgado (United Socialist Workers' Party) = 25,623 (0.02%)
José Maria Eymael (Christian Democracy) = 16,603 (0.01%)

2nd and final round of voting will be held on October 30 between the top 2 candidates.

[David]

I haven’t followed this closely and don’t know enough about Brazilian politics to know where the various minor parties fall on the political spectrum, but my understanding is that Bolsonaro has greatly overperformed expectations and has a big chance of winning the run-off.

Edit: on further inspection, the Democratic Labour Party is of the left and the majority of its voters would presumably back Lula in the run-off, which on its own would push him over 50%. But of course that’s assuming that people vote the same way in four weeks’ time, which may not necessarily be the case. As for the rest, Brazilian Democratic Movement, Brazil Union and The New Party are right-leaning, and the others are presumably too small to matter. So you’re looking at something like a 51.5–48.5 left–right split based on these results.

[Jezza]

^ Based on my limited understanding of it, most polls had Bolsonaro in the 30s so he exceeded expectations getting 43% of the primary vote.

Whether it's enough to propel him to re-election? Time will tell.

[David]

Looks like Lula has squeaked home:

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/30/1132561987/brazil-election-lula-da-silva

[Jezza]

Lula wins 50.9% to 49.1% against Bolsonaro.

The election was closer than what polls expected.

[David]

Yes, I read that even in the second round Lula was still being predicted to win 53–54%. Interesting that polling is still getting it so wrong.

[watt price tully]

After burning and razing large parts of the Amazon (allowing and willing it to happen) Bolsanaro supporters are ramping it up. He lost BTW however 🤦‍♂️😱

https://www.theage.com.au/world/south-america/bolsonaristas-attack-police-headquarters-as-lula-s-victory-certified-20221213-p5c60z.html