Victorian State Election 2022

[watt price tully]

^ remarkable. 53 seats and getting closer to the 55 seat Danslide. Magnificent. Three huge fails:

1. Murdoch Press;
2. The rabid right anti vaxxer so called freedom voters and their ilk; and,
3. The Liberal Party who courted # 2 above and who are represented by #1 above or at least # 1 above does their bidding.

Very happy 😊😊😊

[Pies4shaw]

^ The ALP looks like winning both Preston and Bass. The Lib leads by about 90 votes in Pakenham but that may or may not hold up when preferences are formally distributed tomorrow. Thus, it seems very likely that the ALP will have 55 seats and could still have 56 if Pakenham goes its way. The Greens will have 4 and the LNP will have either 27 or 28 (before Narracan). It's been likely for a week that there are going to be more progressive-party reps in the Assembly than there were after the 2018 election - specifically, either 59 or 60 this time, compared to 58 after 2018.

[eddiesmith]

[David]

In the lower house, yes. Remains to be seen whether they'll also gain 1, 2 or 3 seats in the upper house, but I agree that talk of a "greenslide" on election night was premature – they certainly didn't go backwards, but haven't made huge ground either.

[Pies4shaw]

Preston called for the ALP. That’s 54 called for them. Bass and Pakenham are still to be called. It’s lucky none of this matters (they only govern us, after all), otherwise we might be concerned about how long it takes to count 40,000 votes.

[David]

[David]

Latest Legislative Council updates, courtesy of Kevin Bonham's blog (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/victoria-2022-legislative-council-live.html):

• Eastern Vic: There was some suggestion that Legalise Cannabis might be able to win a seat off Labor here, but that seems almost certain to fail.
• NE Metro: Pretty much certain that the Greens win this over Transport Matters now, even though the ABC calculator still has the latter ahead.
• Northern Metro: Somyurek's position is getting better by the day, to the extent now that he's heavily favoured to win the seat as opposed to Fiona Patten. Bonham is "not seeing anything to suggest this is recoverable" for her.
• Northern Vic: One Nation still favoured for the final seat, but may be at risk here from Labor.
• SE Metro: David Limbrick of the Lib Dems has taken a slight lead over the Liberal candidate in this seat; seems like a real 50–50 between those two at this stage.
• Southern Metro: Has been one of the clearest outcomes since the beginning – 2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Green.
• Western Metro: Continues to be a very tight race between Legalise Cannabis (leading slightly) and the Victorian Socialists. Greens have been mentioned as a remote chance for that spot too, but I'm not sure how that works.
• Western Vic: Legalise Cannabis ahead of the Greens, just.

If the current leads all hold up, this will be the seat breakdown:

15 Labor
14 Coalition
3 Greens
3 Legalise Cannabis
1 Animal Justice
1 Liberal Democrats
1 Shooters & Fishers
1 DLP
1 One Nation

[Pies4shaw]

In the Assembly, the ABC has now called Pakenham for the ALP, following the distribution of preferences today. Bass is the only seat remaining to be called (apart from Narracan, which awaits an election). The ALP is expected to win it also.

As things stand, then, it appears that the final outcome (before Narracan) will be:

ALP 56 (ie, one more member than was elected in the so-called "Danslide" of 2018)
LNP 27
Greens 4.

[watt price tully]

[Jezza]

^ Bass will likely be finalised tomorrow. Labor should win this seat based on current numbers.

Think the Narracan election will be held in January/February. The Coalition is expected to hold this seat.

[Jezza]

Lower House update.

Seats (87.1% counted)

Labor = 55
Coalition = 27
Greens = 4
Other = 0

Primary Vote: (87.1% counted)

Labor = 37.0% (-5.9)
Coalition = 34.4% (-0.8]
Greens = 11.5% (+0.8]
Other = 17.1% (+5.9)

Two Party Preferred: (87.1% counted)

Labor = 54.9% (-2.4)
Coalition = 45.1% (+2.4)

Seats gained and lost:

Labor gains Glen Waverley, Ripon and Hastings.
Labor lost Richmond, Nepean and Hawthorn.

Coalition gains Shepparton, Nepean, Morwell, Hawthorn and Mildura.
Coalition lost Glen Waverley, Ripon and Hastings.

Greens gain Richmond.
Greens have no losses.

Independents have no gains.
Independents lost Shepparton, Mildura and Morwell.

Seats in Doubt:

Bass = Labor 50.3 - 49.7 Coalition - (89.1% counted)

[David]

Bass has been called for Labor, which means the Lower House has been finalised (pending the special election in Narracan). It’ll be 56 Labor, 28 Coalition, 4 Greens.

[Jezza]

Labor (56 seats)

Two party preferred // TPP swing

1. Dandenong = 69.1% // (-4.0% swing)
2. Laverton = 68.0% // (-5.4% swing)
3. Kalkallo = 66.4% // (-4.4% swing)
4. Lara = 66.2% // (-3.0% swing)
5. Thomastown = 66.0% // (-11.4% swing)
6. Broadmeadows = 65.5% // (-9.8% swing)
7. Geelong = 64.7% // (+4.4% swing)
8. Bendigo West = 64.3% // (-4.2% swing)
9. Kororoit = 64.2% // (-11.1% swing)
10. Oakleigh = 63.5% // (-2.6% swing)
11. Wendouree = 63.5% // (+2.4% swing)
12. Williamstown = 63.4% // (-6.5% swing)
13. Ivanhoe = 63.0% // (+0.7% swing)
14. Bundoora = 62.7% // (-3.5% swing)
15. Tarneit = 62.6% // (-5.3% swing)
16. Essendon = 62.5% // (-3.4% swing)
17. Mill Park = 61.4% // (-13.5% swing)
18. Albert Park = 61.2% // (-1.9% swing)
19. Bendigo East = 60.9% // (-1.2% swing)
20. Werribee = 60.5% // (+1.3% swing)
21. Clarinda = 60.4% // (-4.6% swing)
22. Mulgrave = 60.2% // (-5.6% swing)
23. Carrum = 59.9% // (-2.0% swing)
24. South Barwon = 59.8% // (+6.8% swing)
25. St Albans = 59.6% // (-12.4% swing)
26. Macedon = 59.5% // (-3.8% swing)
27. Narre Warren North = 59.2% // (-1.3% swing)
28. Cranbourne = 59.0% // (-0.3% swing)
29. Eltham = 59.0% // (-1.5% swing)
30. Frankston = 58.7% // (-1.5% swing)
31. Sydenham = 58.7% // (-9.0% swing)
32. Bellarine = 58.5% // (-3.0% swing)
33. Narre Warren South = 58.5% // (-1.9% swing)
34. Point Cook = 58.3% // (-4.4% swing)
35. Mordialloc = 58.2% // (-5.2% swing)
36. Bentleigh = 58.0% // (-3.4% swing)
37. Monbulk = 57.6% // (+0.5% swing)
38. Ringwood = 57.5% // (+4.3% swing)
39. Box Hill = 57.2% // (+4.1% swing)
40. Eureka = 57.2% // (-2.1% swing)
41. Greenvale = 56.9% // (-15.1% swing)
42. Niddrie = 56.7% // (-5.8% swing)
43. Sunbury = 56.4% // (-8.1% swing)
44. Ashwood = 56.2% // (+4.2% swing)
45. Melton = 54.6% // (-0.4% swing)
46. Yan Yean = 54.5% // (-11.1% swing)
47. Bayswater = 54.2% // (+4.8% swing)
48. Footscray = 54.2% vs Greens // (-13.9% swing)
49. Glen Waverley = 53.3% (GAIN) // (+4.2% swing)
50. Ripon = 53.0% (GAIN) // (+0.2% swing)
51. Preston = 52.1% vs Greens // (-19.2% swing)
52. Pascoe Vale = 52.0% vs Greens // (-20.3% swing)
53. Hastings = 51.4% (GAIN) // (+1.3% swing)
54. Pakenham = 50.4% // (-1.8% swing)
55. Bass = 50.2% // (+0.9% swing)
56. Northcote = 50.2% vs Greens // (-1.5% swing)


Coalition (27 seats)

Two party preferred // TPP swing

1. Gippsland East = 73.9% // (+6.3% swing)
2. Murray Plains = 73.0% // (-1.0% swing)
3. Lowan = 71.6% // (+0.6% swing)
4. Ovens Valley = 68.0% // (+5.9% swing)
5. Gippsland South = 65.2% // (+1.2% swing)
6. Euroa = 59.9% // (-5.4% swing)
7. Malvern = 58.4% // (+2.4% swing)
8. South-West Coast = 58.0% // (+4.8% swing)
9. Eildon = 57.1% // (+6.0% swing)
10. Shepparton = 56.8% (GAIN) vs Independent // (+12.1% swing)
11. Nepean = 56.7% (GAIN) // (+7.4% swing)
12. Bulleen = 55.9% // (+0.4% swing)
13. Evelyn = 55.2% // (+3.4% swing)
14. Sandringham = 55.1% // (+4.7% swing)
15. Berwick = 54.7% // (+3.5% swing)
16. Morwell = 54.4% (GAIN) // (+8.4% swing)
17. Brighton = 54.2% // (+3.7% swing)
18. Warrandyte = 54.2% // (+0.4% swing)
19. Kew = 54.0% // (-0.7% swing)
20. Rowville = 53.7% // (-1.8% swing)
21. Caulfield = 52.1% // (+2.0% swing)
22. Polwarth = 51.8% // (-0.2% swing)
23. Hawthorn = 51.7% (GAIN) // (+2.3% swing)
24. Croydon = 51.4% // (+0.4% swing)
25. Mildura = 51.2% vs Independent (GAIN) // (+0.9% swing)
26. Benambra = 50.9% vs Independent // (-1.6% swing)
27. Mornington = 50.7% vs Teal // (-4.3% swing)


Greens (4 seats)

Two party preferred // TPP swing

1. Brunswick = 63.5% vs Labor // (+11.5% swing)
2. Prahran = 62.0% vs Coalition // (+3.0% swing)
3. Melbourne = 60.2% vs Labor // (+8.5% swing)
4. Richmond = 57.3% (GAIN) vs Labor // (+13.2% swing)


Other (0 seats)

[Pies4shaw]

Labor claims seat of Bass, meaning party has surpassed 2018 'Danslide' in Victorian lower house

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-09/bass-labor-jordan-crugnale-lower-house-victorian-election/101756968 story

[Jezza]

PRIMARY VOTE

Labor

50.0% - 54.9% = Dandenong (54.9), Kalkallo (53.9), Thomastown (51.7), Mulgrave (51.0)

45.0% - 49.9% = Carrum (49.9), Mill Park (49.9), Lara (49.7), Bendigo East (48.3), Narre Warren South (48.0), Bundoora (47.8], Wendouree (47.6), Narre Warren North (46.8], Tarneit (46.6), Bendigo West (46.5), Geelong (46.4), Cranbourne (46.2), Laverton (45.9), Bentleigh (45.8], Broadmeadows (45.7), Clarinda (45.5), Werribee (45.4), Oakleigh (45.0)

40.0% - 44.9% = Eltham (44.5), South Barwon (44.2), Mordialloc (44.0), Niddrie (43.9), Sydenham (43.5), Kororoit (43.3), Footscray (43.1), Sunbury (43.1), Ivanhoe (42.7), Bellarine (42.6), St Albans (42.3), Frankston (41.6), Greenvale (41.5), Williamstown (41.5), Box Hill (41.4), Macedon (41.4), Yan Yean (41.4), Bayswater (41.3), Essendon (41.1), Eureka (41.1), Glen Waverley (40.6), Northcote (40.6), Ashwood (40.3), Point Cook (40.0)

35.0% - 39.9% = Ringwood (39.0), Pascoe Vale (38.8], Ripon (38.5), Melton (37.7), Preston (37.6), Hastings (37.3), Albert Park (36.4), Monbulk (36.0), Berwick (35.8]

30.0% - 34.9% = Croydon (34.1), Pakenham (33.9), Warrandyte (33.2), Rowville (32.9), Richmond (32.8], Bulleen (32.7), Evelyn (32.7), Bass (32.6), Nepean (32.6), Morwell (31.5), Melbourne (30.6), Euroa (30.4)

25.0% - 29.9% = Polwarth (29.3), Eildon (29.0), Brunswick (28.5), Caulfield (27.8], Prahran (26.6), Malvern (26.1), Sandringham (25.7)

20.0% - 24.9% = Brighton (24.7), Gippsland South (23.4), Kew (22.7), Hawthorn (22.1), Mornington (22.0), South-West Coast (21.2), Ovens Valley (20.7)

15.0% - 19.9% = Lowan (19.6), Murray Plains (18.7), Gippsland East (17.0)

10.0% - 14.9% = Benambra (13.1)

5.0% - 9.9% = Shepparton (7.9), Mildura (6.5)


Bold = Labor won the seat


Coalition

60.0% - 64.9% = Gippsland East (63.4), Murray Plains (61.9)

55.0% - 59.9% = Lowan (59.0)

50.0% - 54.9% = Euroa (53.8], Gippsland South (53.3), Malvern (52.8], Shepparton (52.7), Ovens Valley (52.1)

45.0% - 49.9% = Bulleen (48.1), Nepean (48.1), Eildon (47.4), Warrandyte (47.3), Evelyn (46.7), Sandringham (46.4), Brighton (45.6), Berwick (45.2), Mildura (45.0)

40.0% - 44.9% = Caulfield (44.5), Kew (44.3), Bass (43.5), Croydon (43.0), Benambra (42.9), South-West Coast (42.9), Mornington (42.6), Polwarth (42.5), Hawthorn (42.3), Rowville (40.6), Glen Waverley (40.2)

35.0% - 39.9% = Hastings (39.8], Morwell (38.4), Ashwood (37.2), Bentleigh (36.4), Ripon (36.2), Bayswater (35.6), Eltham (35.6), Box Hill (35.2)

30.0% - 34.9% = Niddrie (34.0), Yan Yean (33.9), Ringwood (33.8], Bellarine (33.1), Pakenham (32.4), South Barwon (32.1), Eureka (31.6), Sunbury (31.6), Mordialloc (31.4), Prahran (31.1), Ivanhoe (31.0), Carrum (30.3), Macedon (30.0)

25.0% - 29.9% = Albert Park (29.8], Wendouree (29.7), Essendon (29.5), Monbulk (29.5), Frankston (29.4), Oakleigh (29.3), Sydenham (29.0), Narre Warren South (28.7), Clarinda (28.6), Williamstown (28.1), Bundoora (27.7), Cranbourne (27.5), Bendigo East (27.4), Narre Warren North (27.3), Geelong (27.2), Tarneit (26.8], Mill Park (25.9), Greenvale (25.4), St Albans (25.4), Werribee (25.3), Bendigo West (25.0)

20.0% - 24.9% = Point Cook (24.7), Kororoit (24.3), Melton (24.3), Thomastown (24.0), Broadmeadows (23.1), Kalkallo (22.9), Laverton (22.2), Dandenong (21.5), Lara (21.4), Pascoe Vale (21.0)

15.0% - 19.9% = Richmond (18.8], Footscray (17.9), Melbourne (17.7), Preston (17.3), Mulgrave (17.2)

10.0% - 14.9% = Northcote (12.2), Brunswick (10.9)


Bold = Coalition won the seat


Greens

40.0% - 44.9% = Brunswick (43.6)

35.0% - 39.9% = Melbourne (37.3), Prahran (36.4)

30.0% - 34.9% = Richmond (34.7), Northcote (30.0)

25.0% - 29.9%

20.0% - 24.9% = Footscray (22.4), Pascoe Vale (22.4), Albert Park (20.9)

15.0% - 19.9% = Ivanhoe (19.2), Polwarth (16.7), Oakleigh (16.6), Caulfield (15.8], Malvern (15.6), Ringwood (15.5), Williamstown (15.4), Geelong (15.3), Essendon (15.1), Preston (15.1), Monbulk (15.0)

10.0% - 14.9% = Ashwood (14.8], Sandringham (14.7), Box Hill (14.1), Brighton (13.8], Eltham (13.5), Bundoora (13.2), Frankston (12.7), South Barwon (12.6), Macedon (12.5), Bellarine (11.8], Warrandyte (11.7), Bendigo West (11.5), Lara (11.3), Eildon (11.2), Hawthorn (11.1), Croydon (10.8], Eureka (10.8], Bentleigh (10.7), Bulleen (10.6), Wendouree (10.4), Mordialloc (10.3), Hastings (10.0)

5.0% - 9.9% = Berwick (9.7), Glen Waverley (9.6), Laverton (9.4), Evelyn (9.3), Ovens Valley (9.0), Nepean (8.8], Bendigo East (8.7), Broadmeadows (8.4), Gippsland South (8.3), Kew (8.3), Bass (8.1), Dandenong (8.1), Clarinda (7.9), Carrum (7.6), Bayswater (7.4), Niddrie (7.4), Tarneit (7.4), Mill Park (7.3), Rowville (7.0), Narre Warren North (6.8], Point Cook (6.8], St Albans (6.8], Thomastown (6.8], Werribee (6.8], Kororoit (6.6), Narre Warren South (6.6), Pakenham (6.6), Sunbury (6.5), Gippsland East (6.4), Mornington (6.4), Mornington (6.4), Yan Yean (6.4), Lowan (6.0), Ripon (6.0), Greenvale (5.8], Sydenham (5.8], Cranbourne (5.6), South-West Coast (5.4), Euroa (5.3), Kalkallo (5.3), Mulgrave (5.1)

0.0% - 4.9% = Melton (4.6), Morwell (4.2), Benambra (3.9), Murray Plains (3.8], Shepparton (2.6), Mildura (2.3)


Bold = Greens won the seat