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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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^ remarkable. 53 seats and getting closer to the 55 seat Danslide. Magnificent. Three huge fails:
1. Murdoch Press;
2. The rabid right anti vaxxer so called freedom voters and their ilk; and,
3. The Liberal Party who courted # 2 above and who are represented by #1 above or at least # 1 above does their bidding.
Very happy 😊😊😊 _________________ “I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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^ The ALP looks like winning both Preston and Bass. The Lib leads by about 90 votes in Pakenham but that may or may not hold up when preferences are formally distributed tomorrow. Thus, it seems very likely that the ALP will have 55 seats and could still have 56 if Pakenham goes its way. The Greens will have 4 and the LNP will have either 27 or 28 (before Narracan). It's been likely for a week that there are going to be more progressive-party reps in the Assembly than there were after the 2018 election - specifically, either 59 or 60 this time, compared to 58 after 2018. |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 22 Nov 2004 Location: Lexus Centre
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David wrote: | Labor have officially won Northcote by 184 votes. |
So it’s officially just the 1 seat gained for the Greenslide? |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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In the lower house, yes. Remains to be seen whether they'll also gain 1, 2 or 3 seats in the upper house, but I agree that talk of a "greenslide" on election night was premature – they certainly didn't go backwards, but haven't made huge ground either. _________________ "Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Preston called for the ALP. That’s 54 called for them. Bass and Pakenham are still to be called. It’s lucky none of this matters (they only govern us, after all), otherwise we might be concerned about how long it takes to count 40,000 votes. |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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Pies4shaw wrote: | ^ The ALP looks like winning both Preston and Bass. The Lib leads by about 90 votes in Pakenham but that may or may not hold up when preferences are formally distributed tomorrow. Thus, it seems very likely that the ALP will have 55 seats and could still have 56 if Pakenham goes its way. The Greens will have 4 and the LNP will have either 27 or 28 (before Narracan). It's been likely for a week that there are going to be more progressive-party reps in the Assembly than there were after the 2018 election - specifically, either 59 or 60 this time, compared to 58 after 2018. |
I guess it depends how one categorises the three rural independents who lost their seats in this election, as 58 only accounted for Labor + the Greens. Ali Cupper seems to have been relatively progressive (at one stage signing up to an informal partnership with the Reason Party and voting with the Andrews government more often than not), while Suzanna Sheed seems to have a similarly progressive record (see an old list here from her first term in parliament: https://web.archive.org/web/20170110235643/http://vicvote.review/assembly/members/Suzanna%20Sheed.html).
Assuming that former National Russell Northe was more conservative-leaning, that would mean that the overall progressive tilt of the legislative assembly will have either held steady on 60 or dropped by one. Either way, no question it's an impressive and unexpected result to back up such a large landslide after such a tumultuous four years. _________________ "Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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Latest Legislative Council updates, courtesy of Kevin Bonham's blog (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/victoria-2022-legislative-council-live.html):
• Eastern Vic: There was some suggestion that Legalise Cannabis might be able to win a seat off Labor here, but that seems almost certain to fail.
• NE Metro: Pretty much certain that the Greens win this over Transport Matters now, even though the ABC calculator still has the latter ahead.
• Northern Metro: Somyurek's position is getting better by the day, to the extent now that he's heavily favoured to win the seat as opposed to Fiona Patten. Bonham is "not seeing anything to suggest this is recoverable" for her.
• Northern Vic: One Nation still favoured for the final seat, but may be at risk here from Labor.
• SE Metro: David Limbrick of the Lib Dems has taken a slight lead over the Liberal candidate in this seat; seems like a real 50–50 between those two at this stage.
• Southern Metro: Has been one of the clearest outcomes since the beginning – 2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Green.
• Western Metro: Continues to be a very tight race between Legalise Cannabis (leading slightly) and the Victorian Socialists. Greens have been mentioned as a remote chance for that spot too, but I'm not sure how that works.
• Western Vic: Legalise Cannabis ahead of the Greens, just.
If the current leads all hold up, this will be the seat breakdown:
15 Labor
14 Coalition
3 Greens
3 Legalise Cannabis
1 Animal Justice
1 Liberal Democrats
1 Shooters & Fishers
1 DLP
1 One Nation _________________ "Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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In the Assembly, the ABC has now called Pakenham for the ALP, following the distribution of preferences today. Bass is the only seat remaining to be called (apart from Narracan, which awaits an election). The ALP is expected to win it also.
As things stand, then, it appears that the final outcome (before Narracan) will be:
ALP 56 (ie, one more member than was elected in the so-called "Danslide" of 2018)
LNP 27
Greens 4. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Pies4shaw wrote: | In the Assembly, the ABC has now called Pakenham for the ALP, following the distribution of preferences today. Bass is the only seat remaining to be called (apart from Narracan, which awaits an election). The ALP is expected to win it also.
As things stand, then, it appears that the final outcome (before Narracan) will be:
ALP 56 (ie, one more member than was elected in the so-called "Danslide" of 2018)
LNP 27
Greens 4. |
I’ve got the ABC saying 55 with Bass likely ALP and Narracan to still hold an election. _________________ “I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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^ Bass will likely be finalised tomorrow. Labor should win this seat based on current numbers.
Think the Narracan election will be held in January/February. The Coalition is expected to hold this seat. _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Lower House update.
Seats (87.1% counted)
Labor = 55
Coalition = 27
Greens = 4
Other = 0
Primary Vote: (87.1% counted)
Labor = 37.0% (-5.9)
Coalition = 34.4% (-0.8]
Greens = 11.5% (+0.8]
Other = 17.1% (+5.9)
Two Party Preferred: (87.1% counted)
Labor = 54.9% (-2.4)
Coalition = 45.1% (+2.4)
Seats gained and lost:
Labor gains Glen Waverley, Ripon and Hastings.
Labor lost Richmond, Nepean and Hawthorn.
Coalition gains Shepparton, Nepean, Morwell, Hawthorn and Mildura.
Coalition lost Glen Waverley, Ripon and Hastings.
Greens gain Richmond.
Greens have no losses.
Independents have no gains.
Independents lost Shepparton, Mildura and Morwell.
Seats in Doubt:
Bass = Labor 50.3 - 49.7 Coalition - (89.1% counted) _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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Bass has been called for Labor, which means the Lower House has been finalised (pending the special election in Narracan). It’ll be 56 Labor, 28 Coalition, 4 Greens. _________________ "Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Labor (56 seats)
Two party preferred // TPP swing
1. Dandenong = 69.1% // (-4.0% swing)
2. Laverton = 68.0% // (-5.4% swing)
3. Kalkallo = 66.4% // (-4.4% swing)
4. Lara = 66.2% // (-3.0% swing)
5. Thomastown = 66.0% // (-11.4% swing)
6. Broadmeadows = 65.5% // (-9.8% swing)
7. Geelong = 64.7% // (+4.4% swing)
8. Bendigo West = 64.3% // (-4.2% swing)
9. Kororoit = 64.2% // (-11.1% swing)
10. Oakleigh = 63.5% // (-2.6% swing)
11. Wendouree = 63.5% // (+2.4% swing)
12. Williamstown = 63.4% // (-6.5% swing)
13. Ivanhoe = 63.0% // (+0.7% swing)
14. Bundoora = 62.7% // (-3.5% swing)
15. Tarneit = 62.6% // (-5.3% swing)
16. Essendon = 62.5% // (-3.4% swing)
17. Mill Park = 61.4% // (-13.5% swing)
18. Albert Park = 61.2% // (-1.9% swing)
19. Bendigo East = 60.9% // (-1.2% swing)
20. Werribee = 60.5% // (+1.3% swing)
21. Clarinda = 60.4% // (-4.6% swing)
22. Mulgrave = 60.2% // (-5.6% swing)
23. Carrum = 59.9% // (-2.0% swing)
24. South Barwon = 59.8% // (+6.8% swing)
25. St Albans = 59.6% // (-12.4% swing)
26. Macedon = 59.5% // (-3.8% swing)
27. Narre Warren North = 59.2% // (-1.3% swing)
28. Cranbourne = 59.0% // (-0.3% swing)
29. Eltham = 59.0% // (-1.5% swing)
30. Frankston = 58.7% // (-1.5% swing)
31. Sydenham = 58.7% // (-9.0% swing)
32. Bellarine = 58.5% // (-3.0% swing)
33. Narre Warren South = 58.5% // (-1.9% swing)
34. Point Cook = 58.3% // (-4.4% swing)
35. Mordialloc = 58.2% // (-5.2% swing)
36. Bentleigh = 58.0% // (-3.4% swing)
37. Monbulk = 57.6% // (+0.5% swing)
38. Ringwood = 57.5% // (+4.3% swing)
39. Box Hill = 57.2% // (+4.1% swing)
40. Eureka = 57.2% // (-2.1% swing)
41. Greenvale = 56.9% // (-15.1% swing)
42. Niddrie = 56.7% // (-5.8% swing)
43. Sunbury = 56.4% // (-8.1% swing)
44. Ashwood = 56.2% // (+4.2% swing)
45. Melton = 54.6% // (-0.4% swing)
46. Yan Yean = 54.5% // (-11.1% swing)
47. Bayswater = 54.2% // (+4.8% swing)
48. Footscray = 54.2% vs Greens // (-13.9% swing)
49. Glen Waverley = 53.3% (GAIN) // (+4.2% swing)
50. Ripon = 53.0% (GAIN) // (+0.2% swing)
51. Preston = 52.1% vs Greens // (-19.2% swing)
52. Pascoe Vale = 52.0% vs Greens // (-20.3% swing)
53. Hastings = 51.4% (GAIN) // (+1.3% swing)
54. Pakenham = 50.4% // (-1.8% swing)
55. Bass = 50.2% // (+0.9% swing)
56. Northcote = 50.2% vs Greens // (-1.5% swing)
Coalition (27 seats)
Two party preferred // TPP swing
1. Gippsland East = 73.9% // (+6.3% swing)
2. Murray Plains = 73.0% // (-1.0% swing)
3. Lowan = 71.6% // (+0.6% swing)
4. Ovens Valley = 68.0% // (+5.9% swing)
5. Gippsland South = 65.2% // (+1.2% swing)
6. Euroa = 59.9% // (-5.4% swing)
7. Malvern = 58.4% // (+2.4% swing)
8. South-West Coast = 58.0% // (+4.8% swing)
9. Eildon = 57.1% // (+6.0% swing)
10. Shepparton = 56.8% (GAIN) vs Independent // (+12.1% swing)
11. Nepean = 56.7% (GAIN) // (+7.4% swing)
12. Bulleen = 55.9% // (+0.4% swing)
13. Evelyn = 55.2% // (+3.4% swing)
14. Sandringham = 55.1% // (+4.7% swing)
15. Berwick = 54.7% // (+3.5% swing)
16. Morwell = 54.4% (GAIN) // (+8.4% swing)
17. Brighton = 54.2% // (+3.7% swing)
18. Warrandyte = 54.2% // (+0.4% swing)
19. Kew = 54.0% // (-0.7% swing)
20. Rowville = 53.7% // (-1.8% swing)
21. Caulfield = 52.1% // (+2.0% swing)
22. Polwarth = 51.8% // (-0.2% swing)
23. Hawthorn = 51.7% (GAIN) // (+2.3% swing)
24. Croydon = 51.4% // (+0.4% swing)
25. Mildura = 51.2% vs Independent (GAIN) // (+0.9% swing)
26. Benambra = 50.9% vs Independent // (-1.6% swing)
27. Mornington = 50.7% vs Teal // (-4.3% swing)
Greens (4 seats)
Two party preferred // TPP swing
1. Brunswick = 63.5% vs Labor // (+11.5% swing)
2. Prahran = 62.0% vs Coalition // (+3.0% swing)
3. Melbourne = 60.2% vs Labor // (+8.5% swing)
4. Richmond = 57.3% (GAIN) vs Labor // (+13.2% swing)
Other (0 seats) _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 |
Last edited by Jezza on Fri Dec 09, 2022 8:49 pm; edited 4 times in total |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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PRIMARY VOTE
Labor
50.0% - 54.9% = Dandenong (54.9), Kalkallo (53.9), Thomastown (51.7), Mulgrave (51.0)
45.0% - 49.9% = Carrum (49.9), Mill Park (49.9), Lara (49.7), Bendigo East (48.3), Narre Warren South (48.0), Bundoora (47.8], Wendouree (47.6), Narre Warren North (46.8], Tarneit (46.6), Bendigo West (46.5), Geelong (46.4), Cranbourne (46.2), Laverton (45.9), Bentleigh (45.8], Broadmeadows (45.7), Clarinda (45.5), Werribee (45.4), Oakleigh (45.0)
40.0% - 44.9% = Eltham (44.5), South Barwon (44.2), Mordialloc (44.0), Niddrie (43.9), Sydenham (43.5), Kororoit (43.3), Footscray (43.1), Sunbury (43.1), Ivanhoe (42.7), Bellarine (42.6), St Albans (42.3), Frankston (41.6), Greenvale (41.5), Williamstown (41.5), Box Hill (41.4), Macedon (41.4), Yan Yean (41.4), Bayswater (41.3), Essendon (41.1), Eureka (41.1), Glen Waverley (40.6), Northcote (40.6), Ashwood (40.3), Point Cook (40.0)
35.0% - 39.9% = Ringwood (39.0), Pascoe Vale (38.8], Ripon (38.5), Melton (37.7), Preston (37.6), Hastings (37.3), Albert Park (36.4), Monbulk (36.0), Berwick (35.8]
30.0% - 34.9% = Croydon (34.1), Pakenham (33.9), Warrandyte (33.2), Rowville (32.9), Richmond (32.8], Bulleen (32.7), Evelyn (32.7), Bass (32.6), Nepean (32.6), Morwell (31.5), Melbourne (30.6), Euroa (30.4)
25.0% - 29.9% = Polwarth (29.3), Eildon (29.0), Brunswick (28.5), Caulfield (27.8], Prahran (26.6), Malvern (26.1), Sandringham (25.7)
20.0% - 24.9% = Brighton (24.7), Gippsland South (23.4), Kew (22.7), Hawthorn (22.1), Mornington (22.0), South-West Coast (21.2), Ovens Valley (20.7)
15.0% - 19.9% = Lowan (19.6), Murray Plains (18.7), Gippsland East (17.0)
10.0% - 14.9% = Benambra (13.1)
5.0% - 9.9% = Shepparton (7.9), Mildura (6.5)
Bold = Labor won the seat
Coalition
60.0% - 64.9% = Gippsland East (63.4), Murray Plains (61.9)
55.0% - 59.9% = Lowan (59.0)
50.0% - 54.9% = Euroa (53.8], Gippsland South (53.3), Malvern (52.8], Shepparton (52.7), Ovens Valley (52.1)
45.0% - 49.9% = Bulleen (48.1), Nepean (48.1), Eildon (47.4), Warrandyte (47.3), Evelyn (46.7), Sandringham (46.4), Brighton (45.6), Berwick (45.2), Mildura (45.0)
40.0% - 44.9% = Caulfield (44.5), Kew (44.3), Bass (43.5), Croydon (43.0), Benambra (42.9), South-West Coast (42.9), Mornington (42.6), Polwarth (42.5), Hawthorn (42.3), Rowville (40.6), Glen Waverley (40.2)
35.0% - 39.9% = Hastings (39.8], Morwell (38.4), Ashwood (37.2), Bentleigh (36.4), Ripon (36.2), Bayswater (35.6), Eltham (35.6), Box Hill (35.2)
30.0% - 34.9% = Niddrie (34.0), Yan Yean (33.9), Ringwood (33.8], Bellarine (33.1), Pakenham (32.4), South Barwon (32.1), Eureka (31.6), Sunbury (31.6), Mordialloc (31.4), Prahran (31.1), Ivanhoe (31.0), Carrum (30.3), Macedon (30.0)
25.0% - 29.9% = Albert Park (29.8], Wendouree (29.7), Essendon (29.5), Monbulk (29.5), Frankston (29.4), Oakleigh (29.3), Sydenham (29.0), Narre Warren South (28.7), Clarinda (28.6), Williamstown (28.1), Bundoora (27.7), Cranbourne (27.5), Bendigo East (27.4), Narre Warren North (27.3), Geelong (27.2), Tarneit (26.8], Mill Park (25.9), Greenvale (25.4), St Albans (25.4), Werribee (25.3), Bendigo West (25.0)
20.0% - 24.9% = Point Cook (24.7), Kororoit (24.3), Melton (24.3), Thomastown (24.0), Broadmeadows (23.1), Kalkallo (22.9), Laverton (22.2), Dandenong (21.5), Lara (21.4), Pascoe Vale (21.0)
15.0% - 19.9% = Richmond (18.8], Footscray (17.9), Melbourne (17.7), Preston (17.3), Mulgrave (17.2)
10.0% - 14.9% = Northcote (12.2), Brunswick (10.9)
Bold = Coalition won the seat
Greens
40.0% - 44.9% = Brunswick (43.6)
35.0% - 39.9% = Melbourne (37.3), Prahran (36.4)
30.0% - 34.9% = Richmond (34.7), Northcote (30.0)
25.0% - 29.9%
20.0% - 24.9% = Footscray (22.4), Pascoe Vale (22.4), Albert Park (20.9)
15.0% - 19.9% = Ivanhoe (19.2), Polwarth (16.7), Oakleigh (16.6), Caulfield (15.8], Malvern (15.6), Ringwood (15.5), Williamstown (15.4), Geelong (15.3), Essendon (15.1), Preston (15.1), Monbulk (15.0)
10.0% - 14.9% = Ashwood (14.8], Sandringham (14.7), Box Hill (14.1), Brighton (13.8], Eltham (13.5), Bundoora (13.2), Frankston (12.7), South Barwon (12.6), Macedon (12.5), Bellarine (11.8], Warrandyte (11.7), Bendigo West (11.5), Lara (11.3), Eildon (11.2), Hawthorn (11.1), Croydon (10.8], Eureka (10.8], Bentleigh (10.7), Bulleen (10.6), Wendouree (10.4), Mordialloc (10.3), Hastings (10.0)
5.0% - 9.9% = Berwick (9.7), Glen Waverley (9.6), Laverton (9.4), Evelyn (9.3), Ovens Valley (9.0), Nepean (8.8], Bendigo East (8.7), Broadmeadows (8.4), Gippsland South (8.3), Kew (8.3), Bass (8.1), Dandenong (8.1), Clarinda (7.9), Carrum (7.6), Bayswater (7.4), Niddrie (7.4), Tarneit (7.4), Mill Park (7.3), Rowville (7.0), Narre Warren North (6.8], Point Cook (6.8], St Albans (6.8], Thomastown (6.8], Werribee (6.8], Kororoit (6.6), Narre Warren South (6.6), Pakenham (6.6), Sunbury (6.5), Gippsland East (6.4), Mornington (6.4), Mornington (6.4), Yan Yean (6.4), Lowan (6.0), Ripon (6.0), Greenvale (5.8], Sydenham (5.8], Cranbourne (5.6), South-West Coast (5.4), Euroa (5.3), Kalkallo (5.3), Mulgrave (5.1)
0.0% - 4.9% = Melton (4.6), Morwell (4.2), Benambra (3.9), Murray Plains (3.8], Shepparton (2.6), Mildura (2.3)
Bold = Greens won the seat _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 |
Last edited by Jezza on Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:39 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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