US election 2020
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Who do you hope wins the US Election? |
Trump |
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39% |
[ 9 ] |
Biden |
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39% |
[ 9 ] |
Don't Care |
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21% |
[ 5 ] |
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Total Votes : 23 |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/donald-trump-tax-returns-irs-750-dollars
Quote: | Three enterprising reporters for the New York Times published a bombshell report Sunday evening on Donald Trump’s financial life, making it clear that the President of the United States is a desperate, cash-hungry grifter who paid no federal income taxes at all in ten of the fifteen years leading up to his run for office and has, in his frenzied quest to stay afloat, “propped up his sagging bottom line” by exploiting his office.
Readers learn that Trump, who inherited an immense fortune from his father, found countless ways to squander his capital. And, like his old man, he also found countless ways to short the government, including, according to the Times, paying his daughter Ivanka legally dubious consulting fees. At the same time, Trump has accumulated hundreds of millions of dollars in debt that he must soon repay. He is an almost comically inept businessman; he is the sum of his debt and bankruptcies. Nearly everything he touches turns to lead. Were it not for his investments in Trump Tower, “The Apprentice,” and little else—and were it not for the tireless ministrations of his accountants—he would likely be on his back. The question is: Will anyone care?
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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We already know the piece of dog faeces is nothing but a high-stakes fraud and conman surviving on thuggery, blackmail, self-dealing, corruption and criminal dealings, powered by a malignant narcissism-cum-psychopathy that would see the average person sectioned.
Basically, he's too big a con to fail. Has been all along, and even more so now so many fundamentalist fools have debased themselves by attaching their self-esteem to his fate.
He'll simply deny this, of course, which is his standard game. It's about time Americans turned custom into law and made the bastard meet expectations and release them whether he wants to or not.
NYT wrote: | Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.
He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.
As the president wages a re-election campaign that polls say he is in danger of losing, his finances are under stress, beset by losses and hundreds of millions of dollars in debt coming due that he has personally guaranteed. Also hanging over him is a decade-long audit battle with the Internal Revenue Service over the legitimacy of a $72.9 million tax refund that he claimed, and received, after declaring huge losses. An adverse ruling could cost him more than $100 million.
The tax returns that Mr. Trump has long fought to keep private tell a story fundamentally different from the one he has sold to the American public. His reports to the I.R.S. portray a businessman who takes in hundreds of millions of dollars a year yet racks up chronic losses that he aggressively employs to avoid paying taxes. Now, with his financial challenges mounting, the records show that he depends more and more on making money from businesses that put him in potential and often direct conflict of interest with his job as president. |
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html
A lot of people are going to face a serious reckoning when this creep's time comes. Win or lose won't matter; they will still be the unconscionable halfwits who normalised a pathological wrecker, criminal and killer, and fell for his infantile clown act. My recommendation would be to start denying it now, because Trump conning his way to another victory will only make the reckoning worse when it eventually arrives. _________________ In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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The latest polls:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
Even Rasmussen now has Biden 8% ahead (even before the train wreck debate). A fair review of the recent polling would be that virtually all of it has Biden with around twice the lead Clinton had at the same point in the last race. Although there is a lot of uncertainty (the next article deals with that in an intelligent and thoughtful way), even if the polls are as wrong as they were last time (and you'd like to think that the people who do this for a living have put a fair bit of work into trying to correct that), Biden is still more likely than not (to put it neutrally) to win.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/
An extract:
Quote: | President Trump’s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.1
If we look at potential tipping-point states, the race is a bit closer, but not that much closer. After a couple of strong polls for Joe Biden earlier this week in Pennsylvania — the state that’s currently most likely to decide the election — Trump now trails there by 5 to 6 points. He’s down by about 7 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile. Those states, along with Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire — where Biden has also polled strongly lately — suggest that Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago. Indeed, Biden is as close to winning South Carolina or Alaska as Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, based on recent polls of those states.
At a time when Trump desperately needed a boost, the debate probably didn’t help him either — it may have hurt him. Every scientific poll we’ve seen had Trump losing the debate, some by narrow margins and some by wide ones.
That includes the poll FiveThirtyEight conducted with Ipsos, which surveyed the same group of voters before and after the debate. While the poll didn’t show a massive swing — most voters stuck to their initial preferences — more voters did rate Biden’s performance favorably, and Biden gained ground relative to Trump based on the number of voters who said they were certain to vote for him, roughly tantamount to a 3-point swing toward Biden in head-to-head polls.
Now, I’m not predicting this will happen, but if Biden’s national lead were to expand to 9 or 10 points, which is consistent with the sorts of polling bounces we’ve seen in the past for candidates who were perceived to win debates — especially challengers debating an incumbent for the first time — Trump’s situation could become quite desperate.
To be clear, none of this means that Trump’s chances are kaput. As of this writing, our forecast still gives him around a 21 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. That’s not great, but it’s a lot better than zero.
But it’s possible Trump’s chances may decline further after post-debate polling begins to roll into our forecast. Furthermore, the mere passage of time helps Biden in our model, because every day that Trump doesn’t gain ground is a day when his fate becomes slightly more sealed. (Lots of people have already voted!) Case in point: In an election held today — Trump has no more time to make up ground — his chances would be 9 percent, not 21 percent, according to our forecast.
Then again, there are some possibilities that our model doesn’t account for, and they have become more pertinent after Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power and declined to commit to respecting the election results. As we wrote when launching the forecast:
We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.
Let’s back up for a second. This is FiveThirtyEight’s fourth presidential election campaign. And in the previous three, there was at least some question about who was ahead in the stretch run of the race. John McCain, for instance, briefly pulled ahead of Barack Obama following the 2008 Republican convention, and Obama didn’t really solidify his lead until early October. In 2012, national polls were very tight between Obama and Mitt Romney following the first presidential debate, and remained fairly tight thereafter (although Obama always maintained an Electoral College edge). And people forget how close the 2016 race was for stretches of the campaign; it was not such a huge upset. In fact, Hillary Clinton led by only 1.4 points in our national polling average heading into the first debate that year.
But there isn’t any of that ambiguity this time. Since we launched our general election polling averages on June 18, Biden has never led by less than 6.6 points nationally. Literally only one national poll — a Rasmussen Reports poll that put Trump ahead by less than a full percentage point — has shown Trump leading by any margin during that period. It’s been an exceptionally stable race. |
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doriswilgus
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Location: the great southern land
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Good God,I just saw the poll about who people here want to win the election.Who knew there were so many Trumpistas on this site?Scary. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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Truly horrifying, isn't it! _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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doriswilgus
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Location: the great southern land
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David wrote: | Truly horrifying, isn't it! |
Yes,it is.But I don’t think the poll here is reflective of how people in Australia think about Trump generally.I think his support in this country would be well under 20%.Personally,I don’t know anyone who can stand a bar of him. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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^ Yes, I think you're right on that. And would probably be the same in most other countries, too (perhaps with the exception of Russia, Hungary, Poland and a few other Christian fundamentalist-dominated places like that where Trump and Trump-style politics remain popular). _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Lazza
Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia
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doriswilgus wrote: | David wrote: | Truly horrifying, isn't it! |
Yes,it is.But I don’t think the poll here is reflective of how people in Australia think about Trump generally.I think his support in this country would be well under 20%.Personally,I don’t know anyone who can stand a bar of him. |
From my part of the country (Victoria - Bendigo) I would confidently say that the support for Trump will be well under 10%. Among the friends and relatives of our family, no one (even those who support the Liberals) supports Trump. _________________ Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine! |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005 Location: somewhere
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Lazza wrote: | doriswilgus wrote: | David wrote: | Truly horrifying, isn't it! |
Yes,it is.But I don’t think the poll here is reflective of how people in Australia think about Trump generally.I think his support in this country would be well under 20%.Personally,I don’t know anyone who can stand a bar of him. |
From my part of the country (Victoria - Bendigo) I would confidently say that the support for Trump will be well under 10%. Among the friends and relatives of our family, no one (even those who support the Liberals) supports Trump. |
I can’t believe it’s come to this, still can’t believe he one the first time, even though I get why. But was Biden really the best the opposition could come up with? I try to avoid political discussions I just can’t be bothered. With the arguments, my hubby is a trump fantastic, me, I think he did some good, some nuts, some bad, at the least he hopefully shook up the establishment. I do know a couple of other trump supporters that have come out of the woodwork, one surprised me with her out there supporting, but then she’s one of those moronic boots out for dan nutters too.
One thing that has happened I think isthere is less mystery? Less protection? for the first family. Certainly less respect! As Harry has brought down the queen of England. Not a bad thing. To a point. _________________ You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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Tannin
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006 Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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Trump is telling people he has got the coronavirus.
True or false?
Election tactic for the sympathy vote?
Incompetence and carelessness?
Or both? _________________ �Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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swoop42
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008 Location: The 18
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The timing is highly suspicious to me and it wouldn't surprise if it's just some desperate act by the people behind Trump to shift focus from his debate antics.
Still if he croaks it I'm happy to say I was wrong. _________________ He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Speedy recovery to the President and First Lady.
Best wishes to both of them. _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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swoop42 wrote: | The timing is highly suspicious to me and it wouldn't surprise if it's just some desperate act by the people behind Trump to shift focus from his debate antics.
Still if he croaks it I'm happy to say I was wrong. |
Well, if he dies, the most you’ll know is that if it was a stunt, it didn’t quite end the way he wanted. |
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Lazza
Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia
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Well is this a cunning stunt to revive his position or will he end up being a stunning c___ suffering from Covid? In all seriousness I hope he recovers well as there is a more than 90% chance of recovery. Get well Trumpy. _________________ Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine! |
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