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Morrigu 
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
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| stui magpie wrote: | I did something today I just don't do. I humbly suggest you all do similar.
I reached out to some family and friends and did the RUOK. |
Good advice!
I know very few on here will care but I am very distressed at what will happen to the animal sanctuaries that rely on overnight guests and donations - the animals still need to be fed and cared for 
Last edited by Morrigu on Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:32 am; edited 1 time in total |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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How might COVID-19 compare to the flu in our hospitals?
Estimated ICU admissions || estimated total hospitalizations
Influenza (2017) 2581 | 29000
Influenza (2018) 464 | 5800
COVID-19 (20% infected) 256370 | 1025482
COVID-19 (25% infected) 320463 | 1281852
COVID-19 (40% infected) 512741 | 2050963
COVID-19 (60% infected) 769111 | 3076445
"It's also important to note that the admissions projected in this chart wouldn't all happen at once, but surge periods are forecast where admissions threaten to outnumber beds."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-australia-covid-19-icu-beds-ventilators-hospitals/12090420 |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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Latest numbers
Confirmed (Deaths) - Recoveries
USA = 123,781 (2,229) - 3,238
Italy = 92,472 (10,023) - 12,384
China = 81,439 (3,300) - 75,448
Spain = 78,797 (6,528) - 14,709
Germany = 58,247 (455) - 8,481
Iran = 38,309 (2,640) - 12,391
France = 37,575 (2,314) - 5,700
UK = 17,089 (1,019) - 135
Switzerland = 14,352 (282) - 1,595
Belgium = 10,836 (431) - 1,359
...........................................................
Australia = 3,984 (16) - 241
183 territories
678,113 confirmed cases
31,748 deaths
146,319 recoveries
4.68% case fatality rate
Australia:
- Confirmed cases = 3,984
---- New South Wales = 1,791
---- Victoria = 769
---- Queensland = 656
---- Western Australia = 312
---- South Australia = 299
---- ACT = 77
---- Tasmania = 66
---- NT = 14
- Deaths = 16
- Recoveries = 241
- Case fatality rate = 0.40%
Active Cases = 500,046
- USA = 118,314
- Italy = 70,065
- Spain = 57,560
- Germany = 49,311
- France = 29,561
- Iran = 23,278
- UK = 15,935
- Switzerland = 12,475
- Netherlands = 9,120
- Belgium = 9,046
............................................
- Australia = 3,727
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| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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AUSTRALIA
Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases
22/03/2020 = 1,352 (281) = 26%
23/03/2020 = 1,716 (364) = 27%
24/03/2020 = 2,146 (430) = 25%
25/03/2020 = 2,431 (285) = 13%
26/03/2020 = 2,805 (374) = 15%
27/03/2020 = 3,179 (374) = 13%
28/03/2020 = 3,639 (460) = 14%
29/03/2020 = 3,984 (345) = 9%
241 recovered, 16 deaths.
VICTORIA
Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases
22/03/2020 = 296 (67) = 29%
23/03/2020 = 355 (59) = 20%
24/03/2020 = 411 (56) = 16%
25/03/2020 = 466 (55) = 13%
26/03/2020 = 520 (54) = 12%
27/03/2020 = 574 (54) = 10%
28/03/2020 = 685 (111) = 19%
29/03/2020 = 769 (84) = 12%
193 recovered, 4 deaths.
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| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | K wrote: | | Jezza wrote: | | K wrote: | ...
Assumptions:
Time from infection to death 3 weeks;
Death rate of infected about 1%;
Number of infections doubling every [4] days (in the past 3 weeks).
...
---> about 40,000 infections (compared with 3167 officially confirmed).
... |
Australia's testing has been more extensive and thorough compared to the UK where Boris and the health authorities admit the figure is probably 10 to 20 higher than being reported.
I believe our numbers are within the ball park ... |
The question is which assumption is wrong that could bring the estimate down. ...
Do we have demographic info on the 13 victims??
... |
The sample is dramatically skewed by the number of returning travellers who have been infected (or have infected others directly) and the age of the victims. ... |
I rinsed and repeated with a few modifications.
Assumptions:
Time from infection to death 3 weeks;
Number of infections doubling every 3.5 days (in the past 3 weeks);
Death rates of 70-79 and 80+ age groups as in BBC article;
Coverage (i.e. percentage of infections missed) identical over all age groups.
And the numbers you get... are even higher. 
So I'm not buying this estimation method. Maybe several things are breaking down. e.g. I now think the percentage of infections tested is probably not the same for all age groups (the last assumption). I can imagine elderly, sickly people who don't complain much and don't have access to GPs are probably under-represented in testing. |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| Tannin wrote: | | What'sinaname wrote: | | We'll be in isolation for the next six months. |
That is what the Prime Minister is aiming for, six months of this or longer. Start too late, do too little ... well of course it's going to take forever and kill a lot of people.
Contrast with the aim of the state Premiers (esp Vic, WA, Tas, & NSW), which is to go hard and get this damn thing over and finished ASAP with minimal loss of life and the soonest possible resumption of normal service. |
So what’s this quick fix that would save us all? Seems like these places who went hard are experiencing second waves of infections once they try to return to normal.
As for the Victorian government, they told us 40-60% of people WILL get it, not sure their plans are on a quick fix unless it’s everyone gets it quickly and hope they build immunity? Then there’s NSW who are responsible fir the sudden increase in cases...
But I find it funny we have a national cabinet making decisions which includes the PM and all the state premiers yet every bad decision is the PMs fault and every good decision is the states going alone... |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| eddiesmith wrote: | ...
Seems like these places who went hard are experiencing second waves of infections once they try to return to normal.
... |
No. They are bracing themselves for second waves. I don't think those second waves have clearly arrived yet. And their fear is based upon it being imported by outsiders. It doesn't have anything to do with going hard and fast. Maybe there'll be second waves whatever you do, but the waves might be different, depending on what you do.
e.g.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6701986/china-defends-against-virus-second-wave/?cs=14232 |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Japan risks second coronavirus wave as hygiene fatigue sets in
https://www.ft.com/content/194d488d-952a-41bc-8a96-0cd67e2f3b52
"Japan’s pristine handrails and the calm upping of standards are just two examples used to explain the country’s subdued coronavirus case numbers since the outbreak began in China in January.
But the country’s low infection rate is now being called into question, with a spike in Tokyo raising alarm that Japan has been overly complacent and is set for a “second wave” of illness.
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“There is a need for everyone to share a sense of urgency,” said Satoshi Hori, one of Japan’s leading experts on infection control and a professor at Juntendo University. “But people are becoming tired of exercising restraint.”
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Japan had appeared to be an outlier. Despite its initial botched handling of the quarantine on the Diamond Princess, it had reported a relatively low number of cases compared to many nearby countries.
Experts have been divided on why. Japan was theoretically vulnerable to a dangerous and fast-moving epidemic, with a quarter of the population aged over 65, high smoking rates and notoriously congested cities and public transport systems.
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Experts say a variety of factors have favoured Japan. They include habits such as bowing rather than shaking hands, removal of shoes indoors, the routine provision of hand wipes in restaurants and the fact that wearing masks is standard in flu and hay fever seasons.
The country also has one of the world’s most generous healthcare systems and many of the elderly live in rural areas far away from their city-dwelling offspring. Mr Abe’s decision to shut down schools from the beginning of March may have helped too.
But until recently, Japan tested for the virus very selectively, arguing it had to focus on the critically ill to avoid overwhelming hospitals. That helped to keep official cases low but also created a potential pitfall by allowing Mr Abe to hold back from declaring an emergency.
“It doesn’t make any sense that a country next to China is seeing an expansion in cases only at the same time as European countries,” said Masahiro Kami, a physician and head of the non-profit Medical Governance Research Institute. “It’s just a matter of testing.”
The German Embassy in Tokyo last week warned the risk of infection in Japan “could not be assessed seriously” because of the lack of testing." |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| K wrote: | | Quote: | | K wrote: | ...
Assumptions:
Time from infection to death 3 weeks;
Death rate of infected about 1%;
Number of infections doubling every [4] days (in the past 3 weeks).
...
---> about 40,000 infections (compared with 3167 officially confirmed).
... |
<snip> |
[Modified] Assumptions:
Time from infection to death 3 weeks;
Number of infections doubling every 3.5 days (in the past 3 weeks);
Death rates of 70-79 and 80+ age groups as in BBC article;
Coverage (i.e. percentage of infections missed) identical over all age groups.
And the numbers you get... are even higher.
So I'm not buying this estimation method. Maybe several things are breaking down. e.g. I now think the percentage of infections tested is probably not the same for all age groups (the last assumption). I can imagine elderly, sickly people who don't complain much and don't have access to GPs are probably under-represented in testing. |
Different estimate...
Assumptions:
1. 35% of infected people are asymptomatic.
2. 75% sensitivity of tests (25% false negative rate).
3. 75% of symptomatic infection cases are being tested.*
---> Total infections are about 3 times the number of confirmed infections.
Officially, Victoria has had 769 cases, Australia 3984.
So it's estimated about 2300 infections in Victoria, 12000 in Australia.
* The last assumption is a guess, but it's hard for me to believe it's more than that. It's probably less.
Included with the second is that there are no false positives.
The first is midway between reported values.
P.S. The Age reports: "More than 39,000 Victorians have been tested to date."
I guess that's about 0.6% of the population.
Iceland is reported to have randomly tested 3.5% of its population. Norway will introduce random tests too.
Iceland has a much smaller population than Victoria, but Norway has a larger population. |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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The federal government has been doing far too little too late and ought to have acted much sooner.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Tannin
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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Tannin
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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The Tasmanian Government, meanwhile, is going hard and getting it right. For the next four weeks, we are not permitted to leave our homes for any reason other than a short list of essential tasks.
Note that Tasmania has very little Covid spread at present, but the state government is going hard right now to make sure it stays that way.
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�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| 17: A “woman in her 80s” has died in Tasmania. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Tannin wrote: | The Tasmanian Government, meanwhile, is going hard and getting it right. For the next four weeks, we are not permitted to leave our homes for any reason other than a short list of essential tasks.
Note that Tasmania has very little Covid spread at present, but the state government is going hard right now to make sure it stays that way. |
Have you moved to Tassie? 
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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think positive 
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| Tannin wrote: | The Tasmanian Government, meanwhile, is going hard and getting it right. For the next four weeks, we are not permitted to leave our homes for any reason other than a short list of essential tasks.
Note that Tasmania has very little Covid spread at present, but the state government is going hard right now to make sure it stays that way. |
you moved!! is it warmer than Ballarat!! id expect so!!
i really wish we would lock down as hard, so many $$%^%%$ idiots around, thinking they are flaunting it, but they are just killing their grand parents.
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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