Draft Lottery

[didick]

Pert has suggested bottom four on the ladder go into a lottery for the first four draft positions. Not a bad idea. But why not make it all teams that didn't make finals? Then there is really no incentive for a time vying for the last spot in the 8, or any team in the bottom half, to tank.
E, any thoughts from the American leagues?

[E]

I have a lot of thoughts on this.

Personally, i dont think tanking is such a big deal in Australia since they stopped giving priority picks

Interestingly, in the NBA, where there might be only 1 or 2 difference makers in any given draft, the existence of a 15 team lottery doesn't actually stop teams from tanking at the end of the year (as even though you aren't guaranteed the number 1 pick, your odds are much better).

Remember that basketball is different to football as 1 player (on a court of 5) can totally chance a franchise. If you dont believe me, look at how LeBron James' teams have done even though he has moved around. a commentator speculated that if Lebron James was on the 76ers (the worst team in basketball), they would probably be a playoff team.

I dont think its as big a deal in the AFL as their generally usnt a great difference between the 1 pick and the 2 pick (i'd love to see an analysis of the success of these picks over the last 20 years).

Separately, having a four team lottery with a 25% chance each of getting number 1 might actually result in more tanking rather than less. yep, more tanking from more teams. Think about this If you take the view that the difference between pick 1 and pick 2 is minimal, there isnt really much to be gained by tanking. However, if i am fifth last with three weeks to go, why wouldn't i drop the last few games to finish fourth to last since the difference could be the difference between pick 1 vs pick 5 (a pretty big difference). i would think most people would agree that this is a big difference. Huge.

I wouldn't do it. Its like the head high contact rule. the theory is a good one, but the execution would likely create more issues than first thought.

[Presti35]

This is the only aspect of U.S. sports I would definitely consider bringing into AFL.

No to wildcard games. No to split divisions. No to red cards. No to a top ten.

Yes to a draft lottery.

However, if they were to bring it in, it would not be long until people start suggesting that it is rigged, even if it wasn't.

[didick]

Interesting. Thanks E. A very complex issue. More thinking required.

[jackcass]

Not a huge fan of the concept and I think we've got things that'll reduce the level of "tanking" going forward.

Firstly, the quality of potential high draftees. The last couple of seasons we've seen that the top 3-4 kids have all been excellent prospects and teams have largely prioritised on team needs when they've selected Weitering or Schache or Oliver in 2015 or McCartin or Petracca in 2014. You get a good kid either way.

And secondly, changes to the process to get priority picks allocated. While we did benefit from it, it was always a flawed system.

I think bigger issues for the draft are getting the balance right with the academies, and the awarding of FA compensation in the first round and/or aligned to the teams finishing position.

I think when GWS have won a few flags they'll redress the academy imbalance.

I think we should have a formula that identifies an appropriate compo pick in the 2nd round and beyond that isn't linked to where the team finished. The disparity between the Buddy and Frawley compo was ridiculous. I also think there needs to be an exclusion of the top 2 or 4 sides from obtaining FAs.

[ronrat]

The academies are really a substitute for father and son. Therefore Sydney and Brisbane are double dipping. First thing they should stop.