Vic State Election

[David]

Quick update on the legislative council: Labor are not going to have a majority in the upper house (only 17 or 18 out of 40 seats) and will have to deal with a sizeable crossbench, but there�s still a chance they�ll only need to negotiate with mostly like-minded crossbenchers (the Greens and Animal Justice will win one seat each). That means there�s a lot at stake in the Northern Metropolitan region, where the Reason (formerly Sex) Party�s Fiona Patten is in a tight contest with the Derryn Hinch candidate for the last seat. Final results should be known over the next few days.

[watt price tully]

At his point in time Labour is slightly ahead in Caulfield. This is a huge shock and is on the same scale as Hawthorn. It's gone Labour, Libs and now too close to call since last week!

I still think the Libs will get in by further postal votes but to rid the Parliamant of Southwick would be doing a community service.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-in-danger-of-losing-caulfield-as-labor-swoops-in-late-surge-20181130-p50jdu.html

[Pies4shaw]

So, State-wide in the Lower House, the Libs got 30.5% of the vote and the Nats got 4.81%. That�s a whisker over 35% of the vote between them. Interesting.

[Pies4shaw]

So, the ABC has finally adjusted its predictions and has decided that the Greens are going to retain Melbourne and Prahran and win Brunswick.

Moreover, now that the dust has settled on the Northcote situation, it is plain that the ALP's hold on the seat is now marginal. The ALP held it on 6.04% margin after the 2014 State election (and a margin of about 4,700 votes), lost it at the 2017 byelection and now holds it on the two-party preferred vote by only 1.7% (a margin of under 400 votes) from the Greens.

[Wokko]

Liberals need to figure out if they're a party of inner city elite 'moderates' or try and change tack and bring in the working class "Howards Battlers" again who they've lost en masse in Victoria.

Conservative politics isn't the domain of rich douchebags from the inner suburbs anymore but the Libs haven't figured that one out yet.

[Jezza]

[Pies4shaw]

[watt price tully]

[David]

The Greens have won in Prahran again, which means that, along with Brunswick (which was called for them on the weekend), they now have three lower-house seats (same as last term).

[Jezza]

According to ABC:

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY:

Labor = 54
Coalition = 25
Greens = 3
Independent = 2

Four seats are still in doubt.

Benambra (currently held by Liberal) = 89.6% counted
- Liberal = 20,817 (50.3%)
- Independent = 20,593 (49.7%)

Difference of 224 votes.

Hawthorn (currently held by Liberal) = 90.9% counted
- Labor = 19,717 (50.2%)
- Liberal = 19,544 (49.8%)

Difference of 173 votes.

Mildura (currently held by Nationals) = 88.3% counted
- Independent = 18,752 (50.3%)
- National = 18,512 (49.7%)

Difference of 240 votes

Ripon (currently held by Liberal) = 91.4% counted
- Liberal = 20,178 (50.1%)
- Labor = 20,099 (49.9%)

Difference of 79 votes

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL (projection):

Labor = 19
Coalition = 10
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party = 3
Transport Matters Party = 2
Greens = 1
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 1
Liberal Democrats = 1
Animal Justice Party = 1
Sustainable Australia = 1

[David]

According to Kevin Bonham, Mildura�s been won by the independent Ali Cupper, and Hawthorn and Benambra will almost certainly go to Labor and Liberal respectively (which will mean that Pesutto is out of a job and Michael O�Brien is likely to be elected opposition leader unopposed). Ripon seems like it�s too close for a call and headed for a recount.

[Pies4shaw]

Assuming that is right and giving Ripon to the Libs, the numbers would be ALP 55, LNP 27, Greens 3 and Independents 3.

The LNP will need to gain 18 seats at the 2022 election to govern without minor parties. There are other ways to cut the figures, of course, but the following looks to me to be a reasonable estimate of the present position.
Assuming they can recover all 3 seats held by independents (essentially as National Party seats), they will need on present percentages (which, of course, will change with a redistribution before the next election) to achieve a uniform (or equivalent) 7% swing across the board to take at least a further 14 seats directly from the ALP (it is almost inconceivable that they can take either of Brunswick or Melbourne without a coup), then take either Prahran from the Greens or Eltham from the ALP as well (both are on a 7.2% margin). The Nats 6 seats look safe (present margins are between 12.6% and 24%). On the other hand, the Libs hold 9 seats by 1.7% or less and, as things stand, none by more than 7.3%. By contrast, the ALP holds 40 seats by at least 8.5%.

Thus, although the Liberal vote probably bottomed-out at this election, they wouldn't want a further 2% slide - or they could easily be cut to just 12 seats in the Assembly from 2022.

[stui magpie]

^

It's interesting.

Victoria was always a traditional Liberal state until recently, while NSW was more Labor, which had an impact on industrial relations in the 2 states. That seems to have reversed in recent times.

In Vic, the libs will be pushing shit uphill. The old adage will run true, people don't vote in new governments they vote out bad ones. It's up to Labor and Dandrews to stay in.

[David]

[Culprit]

Now former shadow attorney-general John Pesutto is looking for a new job. It's pure Karma. Greens winning Prahran, so it's never over till it's over.

ALP will have to sway say 3 voters in the upper house.

Where do they get the three votes required to pass legislation?

Derryen Linch, mostly vote Liberal
Liberal Democrats by name will vote Liberal
Transport Matters being Taxi Operators will definitely vote Liberal as I cannot see the ALP Government accepting their demands.
NRA, I would suggest would vote Liberal.
Greens will be an ally in most cases and that leaves Animal Justice Party and Sustainable Party and I would say that they are achievable.

Their may be some wheeling and dealing but it's not too bad.

In saying that I would suggest the Liberals will join the ALP in voting in amendments to the preference system to kill off the pop up parties.