Vic State Election
Users browsing this topic:0 Registered, 0 Hidden and 1 Guest Registered Users: None |
|
View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: the edge of the deep green sea
|
Post subject: | |
|
Quick update on the legislative council: Labor are not going to have a majority in the upper house (only 17 or 18 out of 40 seats) and will have to deal with a sizeable crossbench, but theres still a chance theyll only need to negotiate with mostly like-minded crossbenchers (the Greens and Animal Justice will win one seat each). That means theres a lot at stake in the Northern Metropolitan region, where the Reason (formerly Sex) Partys Fiona Patten is in a tight contest with the Derryn Hinch candidate for the last seat. Final results should be known over the next few days. _________________ "Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
|
|
|
|
watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
|
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
Post subject: | |
|
So, State-wide in the Lower House, the Libs got 30.5% of the vote and the Nats got 4.81%. Thats a whisker over 35% of the vote between them. Interesting. |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
Post subject: | |
|
So, the ABC has finally adjusted its predictions and has decided that the Greens are going to retain Melbourne and Prahran and win Brunswick.
Moreover, now that the dust has settled on the Northcote situation, it is plain that the ALP's hold on the seat is now marginal. The ALP held it on 6.04% margin after the 2014 State election (and a margin of about 4,700 votes), lost it at the 2017 byelection and now holds it on the two-party preferred vote by only 1.7% (a margin of under 400 votes) from the Greens. |
|
|
|
|
Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
|
Post subject: | |
|
Liberals need to figure out if they're a party of inner city elite 'moderates' or try and change tack and bring in the working class "Howards Battlers" again who they've lost en masse in Victoria.
Conservative politics isn't the domain of rich douchebags from the inner suburbs anymore but the Libs haven't figured that one out yet. |
|
|
|
|
Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
|
Post subject: | |
|
Wokko wrote: | Liberals need to figure out if they're a party of inner city elite 'moderates' or try and change tack and bring in the working class "Howards Battlers" again who they've lost en masse in Victoria.
Conservative politics isn't the domain of rich douchebags from the inner suburbs anymore but the Libs haven't figured that one out yet. |
Exactly. The Liberals are splitting and need to make an important decision on what they ideologically stand for.
I don't think the "Labor-lites" and conservatives can peacefully co-exist with one another anymore. _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
Post subject: | |
|
Jezza wrote: | Wokko wrote: | Liberals need to figure out if they're a party of inner city elite 'moderates' or try and change tack and bring in the working class "Howards Battlers" again who they've lost en masse in Victoria.
Conservative politics isn't the domain of rich douchebags from the inner suburbs anymore but the Libs haven't figured that one out yet. |
Exactly. The Liberals are splitting and need to make an important decision on what they ideologically stand for.
I don't think the "Labor-lites" and conservatives can peacefully co-exist with one another anymore. |
The "Labor-ites" you refer to are the old Liberal Party that many people used to vote for. There's no need to vote for the Duttzis when you can vote for the ALP and get, more or less, Liberal-Lite. |
|
|
|
|
watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
|
Post subject: | |
|
Wokko wrote: | Liberals need to figure out if they're a party of inner city elite 'moderates' or try and change tack and bring in the working class "Howards Battlers" again who they've lost en masse in Victoria.
Conservative politics isn't the domain of rich douchebags from the inner suburbs anymore but the Libs haven't figured that one out yet. |
Yes indeed, the right wing of the party has been so suppressed weve barely heard from them at all. If only they could have more power and exposure. Im all in favour of power being proportionate to their numbers. _________________ “I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
|
|
|
|
David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: the edge of the deep green sea
|
Post subject: | |
|
The Greens have won in Prahran again, which means that, along with Brunswick (which was called for them on the weekend), they now have three lower-house seats (same as last term). _________________ "Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
|
|
|
|
Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
|
Post subject: | |
|
According to ABC:
LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY:
Labor = 54
Coalition = 25
Greens = 3
Independent = 2
Four seats are still in doubt.
Benambra (currently held by Liberal) = 89.6% counted
- Liberal = 20,817 (50.3%)
- Independent = 20,593 (49.7%)
Difference of 224 votes.
Hawthorn (currently held by Liberal) = 90.9% counted
- Labor = 19,717 (50.2%)
- Liberal = 19,544 (49.8%)
Difference of 173 votes.
Mildura (currently held by Nationals) = 88.3% counted
- Independent = 18,752 (50.3%)
- National = 18,512 (49.7%)
Difference of 240 votes
Ripon (currently held by Liberal) = 91.4% counted
- Liberal = 20,178 (50.1%)
- Labor = 20,099 (49.9%)
Difference of 79 votes
LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL (projection):
Labor = 19
Coalition = 10
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party = 3
Transport Matters Party = 2
Greens = 1
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 1
Liberal Democrats = 1
Animal Justice Party = 1
Sustainable Australia = 1 _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
|
|
|
|
David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: the edge of the deep green sea
|
Post subject: | |
|
According to Kevin Bonham, Milduras been won by the independent Ali Cupper, and Hawthorn and Benambra will almost certainly go to Labor and Liberal respectively (which will mean that Pesutto is out of a job and Michael OBrien is likely to be elected opposition leader unopposed). Ripon seems like its too close for a call and headed for a recount. _________________ "Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
Post subject: | |
|
Assuming that is right and giving Ripon to the Libs, the numbers would be ALP 55, LNP 27, Greens 3 and Independents 3.
The LNP will need to gain 18 seats at the 2022 election to govern without minor parties. There are other ways to cut the figures, of course, but the following looks to me to be a reasonable estimate of the present position.
Assuming they can recover all 3 seats held by independents (essentially as National Party seats), they will need on present percentages (which, of course, will change with a redistribution before the next election) to achieve a uniform (or equivalent) 7% swing across the board to take at least a further 14 seats directly from the ALP (it is almost inconceivable that they can take either of Brunswick or Melbourne without a coup), then take either Prahran from the Greens or Eltham from the ALP as well (both are on a 7.2% margin). The Nats 6 seats look safe (present margins are between 12.6% and 24%). On the other hand, the Libs hold 9 seats by 1.7% or less and, as things stand, none by more than 7.3%. By contrast, the ALP holds 40 seats by at least 8.5%.
Thus, although the Liberal vote probably bottomed-out at this election, they wouldn't want a further 2% slide - or they could easily be cut to just 12 seats in the Assembly from 2022. |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
|
Post subject: | |
|
^
It's interesting.
Victoria was always a traditional Liberal state until recently, while NSW was more Labor, which had an impact on industrial relations in the 2 states. That seems to have reversed in recent times.
In Vic, the libs will be pushing shit uphill. The old adage will run true, people don't vote in new governments they vote out bad ones. It's up to Labor and Dandrews to stay in. _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: the edge of the deep green sea
|
Post subject: | |
|
Pies4shaw wrote: | Assuming that is right and giving Ripon to the Libs, the numbers would be ALP 55, LNP 27, Greens 3 and Independents 3.
The LNP will need to gain 18 seats at the 2022 election to govern without minor parties. There are other ways to cut the figures, of course, but the following looks to me to be a reasonable estimate of the present position.
Assuming they can recover all 3 seats held by independents (essentially as National Party seats), they will need on present percentages (which, of course, will change with a redistribution before the next election) to achieve a uniform (or equivalent) 7% swing across the board to take at least a further 14 seats directly from the ALP (it is almost inconceivable that they can take either of Brunswick or Melbourne without a coup), then take either Prahran from the Greens or Eltham from the ALP as well (both are on a 7.2% margin). The Nats 6 seats look safe (present margins are between 12.6% and 24%). On the other hand, the Libs hold 9 seats by 1.7% or less and, as things stand, none by more than 7.3%. By contrast, the ALP holds 40 seats by at least 8.5%.
Thus, although the Liberal vote probably bottomed-out at this election, they wouldn't want a further 2% slide - or they could easily be cut to just 12 seats in the Assembly from 2022. |
To be honest, after the Queensland Labor wipe-out in 2012 and stunning return to power in 2015, I wouldn't presume anything about future elections one year is a long time in politics nowadays, let alone four! But it is a pleasant thing to dream about for now... _________________ "Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
|
|
|
|
Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003 Location: Port Melbourne
|
Post subject: | |
|
Now former shadow attorney-general John Pesutto is looking for a new job. It's pure Karma. Greens winning Prahran, so it's never over till it's over.
ALP will have to sway say 3 voters in the upper house.
Where do they get the three votes required to pass legislation?
Derryen Linch, mostly vote Liberal
Liberal Democrats by name will vote Liberal
Transport Matters being Taxi Operators will definitely vote Liberal as I cannot see the ALP Government accepting their demands.
NRA, I would suggest would vote Liberal.
Greens will be an ally in most cases and that leaves Animal Justice Party and Sustainable Party and I would say that they are achievable.
Their may be some wheeling and dealing but it's not too bad.
In saying that I would suggest the Liberals will join the ALP in voting in amendments to the preference system to kill off the pop up parties. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum You cannot attach files in this forum You cannot download files in this forum
|
|