Minor Premiership / Best % = Premiers? (1990-2017)

[BenBronx]

It goes without saying that Richmond look set to win the minor premiership and are considered by many as favourites to go back-to-back and win the flag. It got me wondering since the VFL became the AFL how often a team that won the minor premiership had gone on to win the AFL Grand Final. With all the deflating injuries we have suffered this season that look set to ruin our chances this year I thought I'd share this statistic with you as I try to remain positive and have belief that we can still go all the way this year...

It turns out that only a third of all minor Premiers have gone on to win the flag in the same year (nine times in 27 years) since the first AFL season in 1990. Collingwood were one of those in 2010...

1990
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Collingwood

1991
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: Hawthorn

1992
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: West Coast

1993
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Essendon

1994
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: West Coast

1995
Minor Premiers: C*rlton
Premiers: C*rlton

1996
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: North Melbourne

1997
Minor Premiers: St Kilda
Premiers: Adelaide

1998
Minor Premiers: North Melbourne
Premiers: Adelaide

1999
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: North Melbourne

2000
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Essendon

2001
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Brisbane Lions

2002
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Brisbane

2003
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Brisbane

2004
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Port Adelaide

2005
Minor Premiers: Adelaide
Premiers: Sydney

2006
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: West Coast

2007
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: Geelong

2008
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: Hawthorn

2009
Minor Premiers: St Kilda
Premiers: Geelong

2010
Minor Premiers: Collingwood
Premiers: Collingwood

2011
Minor Premiers: Collingwood
Premiers: Geelong

2012
Minor Premiers: Hawthorn
Premiers: Sydney

2013
Minor Premiers: Hawthorn
Premiers: Hawthorn

2014
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: Hawthorn

2015
Minor Premiers: Fremantle
Premiers: Hawthorn

2016
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: Western Bulldogs

2017
Minor Premiers: Adelaide
Premiers: Richmond

[E]

how many times in that period did the team with the best percentage win the flag?

[BenBronx]

[stui magpie]

so, given that only 1/3 of minor premiers won the flag, does that mean that statistically you have a better chance of winning the flag if you don't finish 1st?

In each of the past 4 seasons, the minor premier has played in the GF and lost.

[BenBronx]

This is a list of where teams finished on the ladder in the year they won the flag...

1990 - Collingwood (2nd)
1991 - Hawthorn (2nd)
1992 - West Coast (4th)
1993 - Essendon (1st)
1994 - West Coast (1st)
1995 - C*rlton (1st)
1996 - North Melbourne (2nd)
1997 - Adelaide (4th)
1998 - Adelaide (5th)
1999 - North Melbourne (2nd)
2000 - Essendon (1st)
2001 - Brisbane (2nd)
2002 - Brisbane (2nd)
2003 - Brisbane (3rd)
2004 - Port Adelaide (1st)
2005 - Sydney (3rd)
2006 - West Coast (1st)
2007 - Geelong (1st)
2008 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2009 - Geelong (2nd)
2010 - Collingwood (1st)
2011 - Geelong (2nd)
2012 - Sydney (3rd)
2013 - Hawthorn (1st)
2014 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2015 - Hawthorn (3rd)
2016 - Western Bulldogs (7th)
2017 - Richmond (3rd)

Grand Final Winners By Ladder Position:
1st - 9
2nd - 10
3rd - 5
4th - 1
5th - 1
6th - 0
7th - 1
8th - 0

[BenBronx]

I have looked to see if the final H&A ladder positions in the year prior to the team winning the flag gave any evidence of what was to come. In 15 of the 27 AFL seasons the team that went on to win the flag the following season finished inside the top 4. Only 3 times in the history of the AFL has a team gone on to win the flag having not even made the finals in the previous season (Adelaide 1997, Geelong 2007, Richmond 2017). That is the task facing us this year. It's interesting to note that it has happened once a decade and always when the year ends with a '7'.

1990 - Collingwood (5th)
1991 - Hawthorn (5th)
1992 - West Coast (1st)
1993 - Essendon (8th)
1994 - West Coast (6th)
1995 - C*rlton (2nd)
1996 - North Melbourne (6th)
1997 - Adelaide (12th)
1998 - Adelaide (4th)
1999 - North Melbourne (1st)
2000 - Essendon (1st)
2001 - Brisbane (6th)
2002 - Brisbane (2nd)
2003 - Brisbane (2nd)
2004 - Port Adelaide (1st)
2005 - Sydney (6th)
2006 - West Coast (2nd)
2007 - Geelong (10th)
2008 - Hawthorn (5th)
2009 - Geelong (1st)
2010 - Collingwood (4th)
2011 - Geelong (2nd)
2012 - Sydney (7th)
2013 - Hawthorn (1st)
2014 - Hawthorn (1st)
2015 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2016 - Western Bulldogs (6th)
2017 - Richmond (13th)

[HAL]

What did you find?

[eddiesmith]

So the best chance is clearly finishing top 2, so given % will be the difference between 2nd and 3rd, we can definitively say, % matters!

[Pies2016]

Having a bye at the end of the home and always has certainly opened up the possibility of winning a flag from outside the top four.
For mine, the best chance of winning a flag in Sept, is to be in the eight and playing your best footy in August.
We have a whole month ahead of us where most clubs fortunes will either fluctuate or consolidate.
Strap yourself in, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

[Piethagoras' Theorem]

so, what we're basically saying is, 100% of the time the GF was won by a team that made the 8.

[Skids]

[Jezza]

Sides who have made the Grand Final after missing the finals in the previous year.

Essendon (1993) = 7th in 1992
Carlton (1993) = 6th in 1992
Geelong (1994) = 7th in 1993
Sydney (1996) = 12th in 1995
Adelaide (1997) = 12th in 1996
St Kilda (1997) = 10th in 1996
Carlton (1999) = 11th in 1998
Melbourne (2000) = 14th in 1999
Collingwood (2002) = 9th in 2001
Geelong (2007) = 10th in 2006
Port Adelaide (2007) = 12th in 2006
West Coast (2015) = 9th in 2014
Richmond (2017) = 13th in 2016

BOLD = Winner
UNDERLINE = Runner Up

[stui magpie]

[Dave The Man]

Tigers should be UnBackable Favorites for that and the Flag

[What'sinaname]

so really, top 3 or bust