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BenBronx
Joined: 19 May 2010
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Post subject: Minor Premiership / Best % = Premiers? (1990-2017) | |
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It goes without saying that Richmond look set to win the minor premiership and are considered by many as favourites to go back-to-back and win the flag. It got me wondering since the VFL became the AFL how often a team that won the minor premiership had gone on to win the AFL Grand Final. With all the deflating injuries we have suffered this season that look set to ruin our chances this year I thought I'd share this statistic with you as I try to remain positive and have belief that we can still go all the way this year...
It turns out that only a third of all minor Premiers have gone on to win the flag in the same year (nine times in 27 years) since the first AFL season in 1990. Collingwood were one of those in 2010...
1990
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Collingwood
1991
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: Hawthorn
1992
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: West Coast
1993
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Essendon
1994
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: West Coast
1995
Minor Premiers: C*rlton
Premiers: C*rlton
1996
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: North Melbourne
1997
Minor Premiers: St Kilda
Premiers: Adelaide
1998
Minor Premiers: North Melbourne
Premiers: Adelaide
1999
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: North Melbourne
2000
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Essendon
2001
Minor Premiers: Essendon
Premiers: Brisbane Lions
2002
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Brisbane
2003
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Brisbane
2004
Minor Premiers: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Port Adelaide
2005
Minor Premiers: Adelaide
Premiers: Sydney
2006
Minor Premiers: West Coast
Premiers: West Coast
2007
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: Geelong
2008
Minor Premiers: Geelong
Premiers: Hawthorn
2009
Minor Premiers: St Kilda
Premiers: Geelong
2010
Minor Premiers: Collingwood
Premiers: Collingwood
2011
Minor Premiers: Collingwood
Premiers: Geelong
2012
Minor Premiers: Hawthorn
Premiers: Sydney
2013
Minor Premiers: Hawthorn
Premiers: Hawthorn
2014
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: Hawthorn
2015
Minor Premiers: Fremantle
Premiers: Hawthorn
2016
Minor Premiers: Sydney
Premiers: Western Bulldogs
2017
Minor Premiers: Adelaide
Premiers: Richmond
Last edited by BenBronx on Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:48 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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how many times in that period did the team with the best percentage win the flag? _________________ Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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BenBronx
Joined: 19 May 2010
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Post subject: | |
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E wrote: | how many times in that period did the team with the best percentage win the flag? |
Interestingly teams with the best % during the home & away season historically have the same chance of winning the Premiership as the minor premiers - with the statistics showing they also go on to win the flag a third of the time (nine times in 27 years).
1990
Best %: Essendon
Premiers: Collingwood
1991
Best %: West Coast
Premiers: Hawthorn
1992
Best %: Geelong
Premiers: West Coast
1993
Best %: North Melbourne
Premiers: Essendon
1994
Best %: C*rlton
Premiers: West Coast
1995
Best %: C*rlton
Premiers: C*rlton
1996
Best %: North Melbourne
Premiers: North Melbourne
1997
Best %: Adelaide
Premiers: Adelaide
1998
Best %: Adelaide
Premiers: Adelaide
1999
Best %: Brisbane
Premiers: North Melbourne
2000
Best %: Essendon
Premiers: Essendon
2001
Best %: Essendon
Premiers: Brisbane Lions
2002
Best %: Brisbane
Premiers: Brisbane
2003
Best %: Port Adelaide
Premiers: Brisbane
2004
Best %: Brisbane
Premiers: Port Adelaide
2005
Best %: Adelaide
Premiers: Sydney
2006
Best %: Adelaide
Premiers: West Coast
2007
Best %: Geelong
Premiers: Geelong
2008
Best %: Geelong
Premiers: Hawthorn
2009
Best %: St Kilda
Premiers: Geelong
2010
Best %: Geelong
Premiers: Collingwood
2011
Best %: Collingwood
Premiers: Geelong
2012
Best %: Hawthorn
Premiers: Sydney
2013
Best %: Hawthorn
Premiers: Hawthorn
2014
Best %: Sydney
Premiers: Hawthorn
2015
Best %: Hawthorn
Premiers: Hawthorn
2016
Best %: Sydney
Premiers: Western Bulldogs
2017
Best %: Adelaide
Premiers: Richmond |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
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so, given that only 1/3 of minor premiers won the flag, does that mean that statistically you have a better chance of winning the flag if you don't finish 1st?
In each of the past 4 seasons, the minor premier has played in the GF and lost. _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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BenBronx
Joined: 19 May 2010
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This is a list of where teams finished on the ladder in the year they won the flag...
1990 - Collingwood (2nd)
1991 - Hawthorn (2nd)
1992 - West Coast (4th)
1993 - Essendon (1st)
1994 - West Coast (1st)
1995 - C*rlton (1st)
1996 - North Melbourne (2nd)
1997 - Adelaide (4th)
1998 - Adelaide (5th)
1999 - North Melbourne (2nd)
2000 - Essendon (1st)
2001 - Brisbane (2nd)
2002 - Brisbane (2nd)
2003 - Brisbane (3rd)
2004 - Port Adelaide (1st)
2005 - Sydney (3rd)
2006 - West Coast (1st)
2007 - Geelong (1st)
2008 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2009 - Geelong (2nd)
2010 - Collingwood (1st)
2011 - Geelong (2nd)
2012 - Sydney (3rd)
2013 - Hawthorn (1st)
2014 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2015 - Hawthorn (3rd)
2016 - Western Bulldogs (7th)
2017 - Richmond (3rd)
Grand Final Winners By Ladder Position:
1st - 9
2nd - 10
3rd - 5
4th - 1
5th - 1
6th - 0
7th - 1
8th - 0 |
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BenBronx
Joined: 19 May 2010
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Post subject: | |
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I have looked to see if the final H&A ladder positions in the year prior to the team winning the flag gave any evidence of what was to come. In 15 of the 27 AFL seasons the team that went on to win the flag the following season finished inside the top 4. Only 3 times in the history of the AFL has a team gone on to win the flag having not even made the finals in the previous season (Adelaide 1997, Geelong 2007, Richmond 2017). That is the task facing us this year. It's interesting to note that it has happened once a decade and always when the year ends with a '7'.
1990 - Collingwood (5th)
1991 - Hawthorn (5th)
1992 - West Coast (1st)
1993 - Essendon (8th)
1994 - West Coast (6th)
1995 - C*rlton (2nd)
1996 - North Melbourne (6th)
1997 - Adelaide (12th)
1998 - Adelaide (4th)
1999 - North Melbourne (1st)
2000 - Essendon (1st)
2001 - Brisbane (6th)
2002 - Brisbane (2nd)
2003 - Brisbane (2nd)
2004 - Port Adelaide (1st)
2005 - Sydney (6th)
2006 - West Coast (2nd)
2007 - Geelong (10th)
2008 - Hawthorn (5th)
2009 - Geelong (1st)
2010 - Collingwood (4th)
2011 - Geelong (2nd)
2012 - Sydney (7th)
2013 - Hawthorn (1st)
2014 - Hawthorn (1st)
2015 - Hawthorn (2nd)
2016 - Western Bulldogs (6th)
2017 - Richmond (13th) |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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What did you find? |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Location: Lexus Centre
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So the best chance is clearly finishing top 2, so given % will be the difference between 2nd and 3rd, we can definitively say, % matters! |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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Having a bye at the end of the home and always has certainly opened up the possibility of winning a flag from outside the top four.
For mine, the best chance of winning a flag in Sept, is to be in the eight and playing your best footy in August.
We have a whole month ahead of us where most clubs fortunes will either fluctuate or consolidate.
Strap yourself in, it’s going to be a bumpy ride. |
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Piethagoras' Theorem
the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk
Joined: 29 May 2006
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so, what we're basically saying is, 100% of the time the GF was won by a team that made the 8. _________________ Formally frankiboy and FrankieGoesToCollingwood. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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FrankieGoesToCollingwood wrote: | so, what we're basically saying is, 100% of the time the GF was won by a team that made the 8. |
Yep, but 25 of the 27 premiers finished in the top 4. _________________ Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Sides who have made the Grand Final after missing the finals in the previous year.
Essendon (1993) = 7th in 1992
Carlton (1993) = 6th in 1992
Geelong (1994) = 7th in 1993
Sydney (1996) = 12th in 1995
Adelaide (1997) = 12th in 1996
St Kilda (1997) = 10th in 1996
Carlton (1999) = 11th in 1998
Melbourne (2000) = 14th in 1999
Collingwood (2002) = 9th in 2001
Geelong (2007) = 10th in 2006
Port Adelaide (2007) = 12th in 2006
West Coast (2015) = 9th in 2014
Richmond (2017) = 13th in 2016
BOLD = Winner
UNDERLINE = Runner Up _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
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Skids wrote: | FrankieGoesToCollingwood wrote: | so, what we're basically saying is, 100% of the time the GF was won by a team that made the 8. |
Yep, but 25 of the 27 premiers finished in the top 4. |
and 24 of those were top 3 _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005 Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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Tigers should be UnBackable Favorites for that and the Flag _________________ I am Da Man |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010 Location: Living rent free
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so really, top 3 or bust _________________ Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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