Rudd Vs Beazley

[HAL]

Ahem. I've lost the context, bazdaddy. Are we still on [quote] Most?

[eddiesmith]

Another term for the Libs, poor whingeing Labor supporters

[David]

I think what Bazdaddy MIGHT be trying to get at is something that has struck me as well...
Rudd just doesn't look like someone with a killer instinct... or for that matter, someone with much personality at all. Granted, one could have said the same about Howard, but I really can't see Rudd coming close to winning the next election.

Anyhow, the Labor party obviously doesn't hold Rudd in all that much esteem, when you consider that they picked Beazley over him last time. I can't even imagine why... if they had gone the other way, Rudd would now have two years experience in the opposition job and thus a far greater chance of getting into power, but instead they wasted the last two years with a leader who they knew wasn't going to get them anywhere.

[nomadjack]

The party was burned by the Latham 'experiment' David, which is why they opted for the experienced Beazley instead of another new face. They was also no clear consensus regarding Rudd at the time (Stephen Smith, Julia Gillard and to a lesser extent Lindsay Tanner were almost on a level footing with Rudd at the time, Rudd has since pulled away from them), as well as a lot of factional baggage left over from the Beazley/Crean challenge which has since dissipated. Aside from this, nobody wants to be leader of the opposition 3 years out from an election. There is very little to be gained, and a lot to be lost, incleading credibilityand freshness in the eyes of the electorate. Ideally, you would want about 18 months in the job before an election.

As for Labor's chances under Rudd, and the likelihood of him being elected PM, have a look at the polls, which are currently running at 54/46 in favour of the ALP on two party preferred. These bounce around a lot obviously, and could be anywhere in the lead up to the election, but the interesting thing about the latest AC Nielsen poll is the strength of Labor's primary vote under a Rudd/Gillard leadership team - up to 48% compared to around 39-40% for Beazley, and particularly its strength in Queensland, where Labor needs to pick up a swag of seats to win government.

Rudd and Gillard are both tough and skilled political operators who will provide a genuine challenge to the coalition. The fact that the leadership issue has now been settled on Labor's side will also them to put the spotlight back on leadership tensions within the Liberal party. This is potentially the achilles heal for the conservatives. Nobody believes Howard will stay around for a full term if re-elected, and absolutely nobody wants to see Costello as leader. My sense is that a lot of people realise that the government is really floundering at the moment, and are just waiting to give the coalition a good kicking ala Keating in 1996. The only thing that has been stopping them has been the absence of a viable and credible alternative to deliver it. Rudd will offer this.

By the way, if you want to talk killer instinct, talk to someone who worked in his office when he was Wayne Goss' chief of staff. By all accounts he doesn't put up with any crap, is unbelievably driven and is an incredibly hard taskmaster.

[eddies bank balance]

[HAL]

How old are you? What is your real name?

[David]

[pietillidie]

[Proud Pies]

i know exactly what Jenny Macklin looked like.

She looks like this

[David]

well, I've changed my position slightly... Rudd might stand a chance of knocking Howard out after all. It's just a question of whether he can build enough support in the next 11 months (or however long it is until the election)

PP, wouldn't know her if I bumped into her on the street.