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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Post subject: 2020 US election results | |
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/
This is a new thread in relation to the actual election votes. I will unlock it on the day. In the meantime, I've included fivethirtyeight's report about what might get counted meaningfully on the (US) night of the polls - and what you might reasonably take from those results, hour by hour.
Here's fivethirtyeight's conclusion:
Quote: | In total, if we stick to just the states where we are expected to get quick projections and where we are confident we know what those projections will be, Biden would have 192 electoral votes at this point and Trump would have 119. So it’s very possible that we will go to bed not knowing who has won the presidential election. Of course, it’s also possible that, if either Biden or Trump does better than we expect them to, they will win enough states on election night to be formally declared the winner.
Even if not, though, states like Florida where we think we’ll get results quickly but where both candidates have a shot will be strong indicators of who is on track to win. So even if we don’t have a winner on election night, that doesn’t mean we won’t have a pretty good idea. |
Of course, 270 electoral votes are required to remain or become President, so, in substance, the prediction is, in substance, that - if the polls are in the ballpark - we won't know the outcome on the Tuesday night (Wednesday morning, AEDT).
Last edited by Pies4shaw on Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:21 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005 Location: somewhere
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That’s good interesting read, and it feels like a relief coming on! Hopefully there is t much rioting _________________ You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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CNN calls Indiana for Trump.
Biden 0-11 Trump _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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Let's hope the global economy wrecker gets moved on so we don't have to keep paying for his mistakes.
First, you vote in a reality TV clown and malignant narcissist with a trail of debt and bankruptcy. Then, you watch him flounder like a halfwit to protect his image as a pandemic sweeps the country. Then, you endure the resulting economic collapse and suffering as hundreds of thousands of people die.
Finally, you man up and correct your monumentally reckless and negligent error, having reflected on the time you failed to do this when you voted for wrecker George W. for a second time. _________________ In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Update
Florida (59%) = Biden 49.4 - 49.7 Trump
Georgia (4%) = Biden 53.1 - 45.8 Trump
New Hampshire (2%) = Biden 59.2 - 40.3 Trump _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Lazza
Joined: 04 Feb 2003 Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia
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Too close the call at this time. 50:50 chance.
My hunch fwiw is a Biden win, running away.
Trump needs a miracle to win but he has done this before. _________________ Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine! |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Miami Dade County = Biden 54-45 Trump. Clinton won it 63-34 in 2016.
Biden doing well in Pinellas and Duval counties. _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Biden wins Vermont
Biden 3-11 Trump _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Biden wins Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware and District of Columbia.
Trump wins Oklahoma.
Biden 30-18 Trump _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Update
Florida (82%) = Biden 49.4 - 49.6 Trump _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Trump wins Kentucky.
Biden 30-26 Trump _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Biden doing well in Ohio so far. _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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