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regan is true fullback
Joined: 27 Dec 2002
Location: Granville. nsw
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just in from Queensland, I think if you look at the figures here, there is an interesting trend going on, including the loss of the Premiers seat, already, and the parties are neck and neck.
In memory of Leunig's immortal cartoon from 1974:
"Malcolm Mackerras is pulling himself!"
Surely after this, having completely p*ssed off the mob, Coriolanus must fall on his sword... |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Too early to call yet. Only 3 booths counted in Ashgrove so far (Newmans seat) . A long way to go but a good start.
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Would love to see the Libs lose this. Would be unprecedented, and most agree it's not going to happen, but fingers crossed. Whatever happens, it'll be worth watching Campbell Newman's "victory" speech. 
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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Are people being serious when they say Campbell Newman may lose his seat? I haven't been following this state election very closely at all so I'm not sure what to make of that.
I do know that the polls yesterday suggested that this would be neck and neck.
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Polls suggesting Ashgrove is 55-45 Labor's way. It'd actually be a surprise if Newman holds it.
This article raises a fascinating possibility, though:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/01/30/could-newman-stay-premier-if-he-loses-his-seat-its-happened-before/
| Quote: | Barring a last-minute turnaround, it looks likely that Campbell Newman will lose his inner-city Brisbane seat of Ashgrove. However, as our very own William Bowe has predicted, his party looks set to win the election. And theoretically, that means he could remain premier of Queensland.
A column in The Conversation by Sydney University professor of constitutional law Anne Twomey has quickly made a splash after suggesting there was no legal reason Newman could not continue as premier. The argument goes like this: calling an election doesnt mean the position of premier is vacant. Leaders continue to lead through an election and sometimes after, if the result is uncertain. And only a change in government necessitates a new premier. If the LNP wants to keep Newman, theres no reason it couldnt, even if he were no longer in Parliament. South Australia and Victoria have provisions indicating an office bearer cannot hold office for more than three months without a seat in Parliament, but Queensland has no such provisions, despite attempts by former premier Peter Beattie to bring them in in 2005. So if Newman can keep his party room on side, he could theoretically continue to be premier for the whole of the next term, despite losing his seat.
Twomey has support for her interpretation. Speaking on ABC Brisbane local radio yesterday, former lecturer in constitutional law at the Queensland University of Technology John Pyke said that was his understanding as well. Laureate Professor Cheryl Saunders, of the Melbourne Law School, also agrees. Anne Twomeys views are right, she told Crikey, although noting it would be odd for a person who had lost his or her seat to hang on to office in the absence of some explicit constitutional authority for this.
And as Twomey told Crikey today, its happened before in other Westminister systems. In Canada, it isnt even that unusual.
In British Columbia in 2013, for example, the British Columbia Liberal Party won its fourth election, but new leader Christy Clark didnt win her seat. She stayed premier and was subsequently elected in a byelection after another MP stepped down on her behalf.
And if you go back further, to 1984, you find circumstances somewhat similar to Newmans. John Turner was elected prime minister of Canada by the party room after the resignation of Pierre Trudeau, even though he didnt hold a seat at the time. Instead of contesting a byelection, he then advised the Canadian governor-general to dissolve the Parliament. He then won his seat but the party as a whole was comprehensively defeated in one of Canadas biggest ever political landslides. Turner was prime minister for 79 days.
But public attitudes here are very different to those in Canada, Twomey concedes. Over here, the attitude is youre a loser for not winning your seat, so why should you get a second chance? she told Crikey. But when you read the news clippings about the same events in Canada, theres this idea that the leader is a victim who led their party to victory and who is thus deserving of a seat. In fact, sometimes when it happens there, the opposing party will choose not even to run someone against a leader of the other party. So theres a totally different attitude over there.
Its uncharted water for Australia. Any attempt by Newman to remain premier despite losing his seat would likely put the Queenslands governor, currently former chief justice Paul de Jersey, in a difficult position. But its unlikely to come to that. Despite Newman yesterday insisting theres no plan B for his party should he lose his seat, its hard to see the party room defering to someone who doesnt even have a vote in Parliament. Not when theres a premiership for the taking. |
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swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
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| Jezza wrote: | Are people being serious when they say Campbell Newman may lose his seat? I haven't been following this state election very closely at all so I'm not sure what to make of that.
I do know that the polls yesterday suggested that this would be neck and neck. |
I think you mean redneck and neck.
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He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
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swoop42
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
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| watt price tully wrote: | | regan is true fullback wrote: | just in from Queensland, I think if you look at the figures here, there is an interesting trend going on, including the loss of the Premiers seat, already, and the parties are neck and neck.
In memory of Leunig's immortal cartoon from 1974:
"Malcolm Mackerras is pulling himself!"
Surely after this, having completely p*ssed off the mob, Coriolanus must fall on his sword... |
Too early to call yet. Only 3 booths counted in Ashgrove so far (Newmans seat) . A long way to go but a good start. |
Keep your hands above your waist but break out the hand cream just in case is really what you are saying.
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He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Jezza wrote: | Are people being serious when they say Campbell Newman may lose his seat? I haven't been following this state election very closely at all so I'm not sure what to make of that.
I do know that the polls yesterday suggested that this would be neck and neck. |
He was an arrogant [snip] of the first order. No upper house to keep his excesses in order. See his appointment to the office of Chief legal officer was a partisan call that was all too obvious & represented the worst excesses of the Joh Bjelkie regime. His appointment here made Joh Bjelkie's regime seem pure. His regime in his first & hopefully only parliament was characterized by lots of conflicts of interests etc.
Another issues is that they won by such a large margin last time & they really thought they could treat the electorate with contempt. They may still win but he was brazenly too close to big coal mining business - much like the Mad Monk but without any degree of humility.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Not only has Newman lost his seat, Antony Green actually reckons Labor are in the box seat to win.
Unbelievable. What will this mean for Abbott?
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1061
Joined: 06 Sep 2013
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| ABC are calling it 45 ALP, 41 LNP 2 Katter, 2 others. |
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Culprit 
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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| You can't sack thousands and sell off State Assets and expect to remain in power. The sheer arrogance of Newman has cost him. |
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regan is true fullback
Joined: 27 Dec 2002
Location: Granville. nsw
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I don't think it's Newman's fault...
how can any government go from 79 seats to 7 to being chucked out? 2 one term conservative governments...that's the most unheard of thing I've ever heard of... |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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Just shows how much negative effect Abbott is having on all Liberal Parties 
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I am Da Man |
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1061
Joined: 06 Sep 2013
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Now Bikies and such can gather with more than 2 people without being classed as outlaws.
Even the Godsquad got harrassed. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Out of 89 seats, Labor have won 44, LNP 39, Katter Party 2 and an independent has another. Of the three in doubt, Labor lead in two. Pretty likely that they'll form the next government solo.
(The independent, Peter Wellington, backed Labor back in 1998 when there was a hung parliament. So, I'd say Labor will definitely form government in some form or other.)
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All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:08 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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