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14 wins (56 points) to play finals (currently on 36 points)

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2024 5:21 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Magpie Russ wrote:
^

We won't lose any of those 3 games. Then, after the bye, we continue our rise into the Top 2.

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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2024 9:54 pm
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Missing JDG, Cox, WHE, Checkers, Elliott, Mitchell and possibly still Howe, tells me that we are in great danger of losing to the Dogs. I'm still tipping us to win, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us drop this one. I'll be happy if we can win 2 out of next 3 games, but thrilled if we manage to win all 3.

Last edited by RudeBoy on Sun May 26, 2024 7:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Big T 



Joined: 18 Oct 2003
Location: Torino, Italy

PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2024 5:28 pm
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With our draw and injuries, just making the finals will a massive effort and put the fear of god into the other contenders
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LaurieHolden Aquarius

Floreat Gymnorhina tyrannica


Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Location: Victoria Park

PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2024 8:46 am
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After 11 rounds, according to the latest from Wheelo Ratings simulations, we're a 38.80% chance for the Top4 and 74.70% for the Top8.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

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What'sinaname Libra



Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free

PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2024 8:57 am
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Big T wrote:
With our draw and injuries, just making the finals will a massive effort and put the fear of god into the other contenders


It's a tough run. Resigned to losing to Melbourne and the Dogs game is 50:50 given their injuries.

But it that string of four games:
GC at Metricon
Essenden G
Geelong G
Hawthorn G

will make or break the season. Hopefully by June 29, we have players back from injury.

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What'sinaname Libra



Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free

PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2024 6:01 pm
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The injury list suggests we'll lose to WB and Melbourne and the North game isn't a certainty either.

We could be 12th / 13th this time next month

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2024 6:12 pm
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Collingwood remains the only undefeated team in the AFL over the last 8 rounds.

It's possible the Pies will lose to a team that has managed 5 wins in 11 rounds (against the 10th, 15th, 16th and 17th sides and GWS in the middle of a form slump that has seen them lose 3 of the last 4 and win the 4th by 4 points against Geelong - a team in a slightly worse form slump that has seen them lose 4 in a row), not least because the game is being played at their postage-stamp-sized arena.

But I wouldn't be expecting a loss.

As for the Pauperoos, it is true - in a literal sense - that beating them is no certainty - but they have won just 1 of their last 32 matches (the dead rubber win in the final round of 2023 that served only to lose them Harley Reid). Their average losing margin this year is 52 points and they haven't ended any game this year within 4 goals of their opponent. If Collingwood lost to that rabble it would be more than unexpected.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2024 7:49 pm
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K wrote:
K wrote:
Bruce Gonsalves wrote:
Jezza wrote:
% will be largely irrelevant off the back of today's draw.

......provided we don't draw again this year!

Or another team around the same ladder position draws.

There'll prolly be another draw this year... but prolly not between teams directly competing with us for ladder position.
...

Yep, only took a few weeks! Adelaide & Brissy's "elimination final" ended with... err... both eliminated??

Our % is clearly greater than the other 3 drawers, and way less than the % of all of Syd, Geebung, Melb, GWS. Only Port and Carlton, both 2 points ahead, have similar %. So the draw kinda works for us, i.e. closer to a win than a loss.

But still plenty of games left for another draw...

Well, well, well... Shocked

When was the last time we had two draws in a season?
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BazBoy 



Joined: 11 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2024 9:02 am
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Season 2022 12 wins Dogs "eighth spot
“. “. 2023 12 wins Syd""eighth spot

Both seasons 15 and 16 needed to make 4th

We are on 28 (7 wins) with 12games to play so if season follows last two then 5 wins could see us 8th and if we get a fair slice of injured soldiers back
it will be interesting

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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:12 pm
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6 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses (28 points)

Based on Fly's metric we're going to need to win 7 of our last 11 to qualify for finals. It's likely 14 wins is an overstatement and it might require only 12 or 13 wins instead to qualify.

We're just over the halfway mark of the season now:

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (N) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)

R13 - Melbourne (H)
R14 - North Melbourne (A)
R16 - Gold Coast (A)
R17 - Essendon (H)
R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

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What'sinaname Libra



Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free

PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:41 pm
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That's a nasty run

Got to play the top 4 teams 5 times.
Gold Coast away
A resurgent Hawthorn team

All mighty tough games

Geelong
North, Richmond and Lions (G)

These are ones we should win

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David Libra

to wish impossible things


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:26 pm
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Not overly concerned about North, Gold Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn or Richmond " win those five (hopefully getting players back into the team long the way) and we should be nearly there. And even if we drop one of those, Geelong's eminently beatable too. I tend to agree with most that Melbourne on King's Birthday is a long shot given our outs.

It's the last four where things really start to get challenging. One win (say, against Brisbane) may be enough, but I think we'd want to be winning at least two of four if we're to enter the finals with any kind of form, and we may need to even just to qualify.

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warburton lad 



Joined: 26 Aug 2003


PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:41 pm
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Two observations:

1) we most probably will make the eight (anywhere between 5th and 8th).
2) no matter where we finish in the eight, no side will want to play us if we have anywhere near a full list. especially if McStay impacts upon return.

I believe that we have the talent to emulate what Western Bulldogs did in 2016.

Whilst a Top Four finish would be great, it is not essential for us to be Premiers.

Floreat Pica.

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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2024 7:03 pm
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7 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses (32 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (N) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)

R14 - North Melbourne (A)
R16 - Gold Coast (A)
R17 - Essendon (H)
R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2024 8:31 pm
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Two observations:

1. We will make the top 4.

2. We will play the Swans in the Grand Final.
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