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14 wins (56 points) to play finals (currently on 36 points)

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The Black and White Lion 

The Black and White Lion


Joined: 29 Apr 2022


PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2024 6:09 pm
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Alright so we’ve snuck up to 6.5wins and 26points. Almost halfway. Only 8wins to go!

Another pivotal 8point win against the crows. Freo Dogs and Dees on the menu. Will need to inject another 2 players this week with WHE and McInnes out.

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LaurieHolden Aquarius

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Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Location: Victoria Park

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2024 11:34 am
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After 6 games of round 10, 2024, according to the latest from Wheelo Ratings simulations, we're a 29.4% chance for the Top4 and 65.6% for the Top8.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2024 11:49 am
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We're a game and a half ahead of where we were after 10 games in 2022 (5 and 5), a game ahead of where we were in 2020 (5.5/5) and half a game ahead of where we were in 2018.

So, the weekly question - "Which is the only team in the AFL that is undefeated in its last 7 games?"
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Johnno75 



Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2024 8:56 pm
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Almost a perfect weekend of results for us, if only the Hawks knew how to hang on to the ball for 40 seconds. WCE will be extremely hard to beat at home. Lions, Suns and Carlton still need to face them over there.
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BazBoy 



Joined: 11 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2024 9:08 pm
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Bit by bit "-Giants and Dee’s falter
The Power 2 points above us
The Cats. “. “. “. “
Now Bummer’s 4 points above but a shade over 4% below
We just have to keep winning

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2024 7:01 pm
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David wrote:
It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility if we get into gear. Geelong started 2-3 in 2007 and ended up winning all but one of their remaining games and finishing minor premiers. Obviously top 4 is a more attainable goal though.

After R10, the Squiggle models reckon Collingwood's chances are:
5% for 1st
39% for top 4
74% for top 8.

For 1st, they reckon it's:
Sydney 67%
Geebung 8%
Port 6%
Ess 4%
Melb 3%
...
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David Libra

to wish impossible things


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea

PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2024 7:52 pm
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At this stage I’m happy for Sydney to get 1st, and they probably will unless things go seriously wrong for them in the second half of the year.
2nd is a pretty decent prize in its own right, and that race is wide open at the moment.

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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2024 11:35 pm
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28 points (the equivalent of 7 wins), so we’re halfway there. Percentage matters again.
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piedys Taurus

Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!


Joined: 04 Sep 2003
Location: Resident Forum Psychopath since 2003

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2024 11:54 pm
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And the last time maggot interference has presented us two draws in one season was way back when?
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Johnno75 



Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2024 12:06 am
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Errr 2010?
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piedys Taurus

Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!


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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2024 12:12 am
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Johnno75 wrote:
Errr 2010?

Oh yeah; the Melbourne game.... prior to GF1....

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The Black and White Lion 

The Black and White Lion


Joined: 29 Apr 2022


PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2024 7:56 am
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Well at least we're half way there on points before the half way mark of the season.
Fitness and form have been the main story for the first half of the season. Seems that story is not going to go away during the next 5 or 6 weeks either.

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Johnno75 



Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2024 12:11 pm
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It’s pretty jam packed aside from Sydney so 15 could get you top 4.
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David Libra

to wish impossible things


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2024 1:43 pm
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Can definitely edit the title of this thread to say 13 now, I reckon. In fact, with two draws, 12 wins could well be enough.
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Magpie Russ Scorpio



Joined: 28 May 2003


PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2024 2:12 pm
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12 games to go. We can afford to lose maybe 4 of 12 games to make Top 4.
We can afford to lose 6 of 12 and make Top 8.

DOGS, MELB, NORTH, BYE
5 weeks before Round 16 vs GC

We will have a better list by Round 16.
IF…
Bite the bullet give players till after the bye to get fit and risk losing 2 out of next 3 games.
THEN…
We will need to win 7 of the last 9 to make Top 4.
We will need to win 5 of the last 9 to make Top 8.
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