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What are our chances for 2024?

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What do you think our chances are of winning the 2024 premiership?
Very good – we're in the box seat and will be hard to stop
27%
 27%  [ 30 ]
Pretty good – we should finish top 4 and still be in contention on preliminary final weekend, but hard to know from there
47%
 47%  [ 53 ]
Unsure – new season, everyone starts from scratch, and we're just one of many teams that can win it
19%
 19%  [ 22 ]
Not so good – expecting a premiership hangover and/or for other teams to pass us by
5%
 5%  [ 6 ]
Total Votes : 111

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David Libra

to wish impossible things


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 2:18 pm
Post subject: What are our chances for 2024?Reply with quote

Obviously nothing in football is guaranteed, and going back to back is historically rare. But thinking about the season we've just seen, I can't see any reason to think we aren't uniquely well placed for another tilt in 2024:

• It's looking quite possible that we'll have no retirements this off-season, but 2024 may well be the last season for at least some of Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe, Cox, Mitchell, Mihocek, Hoskin-Elliott and Adams " so we'll presumably be able to both continue to rely on the experiences of these players and have the motivation of sending them off in style.
• Depending on our activity during the trade period, we may be able to strengthen our side even further by bringing in, for instance, another key forward.
• We have a promising next tier of players to come in and lock down a regular spot in the 23, including Macrae, Carmichael, Johnson, Harrison, Dean, Allan, Ryan and Begg.
• I don't expect any 2011-style hubris from this group " as we know, the culture is better than it's ever been, and the coaching is excellent. If anything, I expect some of the rough edges we saw this year to be further refined.

I tend to be naturally pessimistic when it comes to stuff like this, but I had a strong feeling in the leadup to 2023 that we were on the verge of something special, and I feel even better about next year.

A lot has to go right to win it, and some things can't be predicted, but it feels to me like our premiership window for flag #17 is wide open. How does everyone else feel?

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Piethagoras' Theorem Taurus

the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk


Joined: 29 May 2006


PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 2:49 pm
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Expect to see some more youth coming through along with a couple more money ball picks. Some delicate management of our older brigade and some luck with injuries should see us competing right at the pointy end once again. I don't see the hunger dissipating, definitely not with Fly
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Jezza Taurus

2023 PREMIERS!


Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 2:55 pm
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Our list profile showed we're on the older side when it comes to age and games experience, so it's a massive relief we were able to convert when the opportunity presented itself. There's always a small fear we might have a Geelong 2023-esque downfall, but I'd like to think we can avoid that.

The backbone of this side is very experienced, with some youth sprinkled at the top led with the likes of N Daicos, McCreery and Ginnivan. Have to hope the likes of Allan, Macrae, McInnes etc push hard to break into the team next year.

I see us being in the finals again, but it really depends on whether we can stay ahead of the curve before teams can work us out tactically. Our coaching panel has been exemplary in the past two seasons, so I have complete faith they'll get us humming again.

On the players themselves, I see a highly motivated group who will do everything they can to win consecutive premierships for the first time since the 1935-36 Collingwood premiership sides.

I think the answer to your question will be better answered after the relevant list changes are lodged and the 2024 fixture is released.

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mudlark 



Joined: 19 Mar 2002
Location: Maroochydore Qld

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 3:43 pm
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Our coach went Back to Back to back in his playing days, back to back in his assistant coaching days and I am absolutely certain, back to back will be front and centre for this group and this club. 3 players to redeem not getting a medal and a couple of youngsters to come through and make the team even better.
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23 YIPPEE!!! 

YIPPEE 23!!!


Joined: 24 Jul 2019


PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 4:04 pm
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Get our men in the trade and do well in the draft.

Another solid pre season.

2024 another top 4 beckons and would really not surprise me that we do it again and 2024 premiership.

2024 will be a time of blending in the kids into the AFL and a time to manage the likes of Steele Pendles

All the while Fly is there.

Back to back for mine.
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Piesnchess 

piesnchess


Joined: 09 Jun 2008


PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 4:55 pm
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Hard to say, Im just rapt we got this flag, imagine trying to do all that again,if Lions had won a close GF , be too hard, to go again. Just cherish this premiership, as I cant see us having the same awesome season, our older players are getting on now. I thought Howe might retire, got his medal, over his arm, Pendles can go on forever, but some of our older guys are nearing the end. May need a mini rebuld soon, bring in more kids, say bring in young Dean at long last, plus draft more kids, we dont want to get too old like the ruddy Cats did.
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warburton lad 



Joined: 26 Aug 2003


PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 5:10 pm
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The key to the 2024 season, as I see it, is as follows:

* How well our players back up- Are they hungry enough to go hard again.
* How well we trade and draft (in that order)- can we jag another key piece
* How much a difference McStay, Adams, Noble come back after missing out...
* How quickly and well Allen, McInnes, Ryan, Macrae, Begg Steele, Draper, Dean etcetera come into the senior side- particularly keen to see McInnes, Macrae and Allen be introduced.

I think we are certainly good enough to make top four and that the hunger will not be greatly diminished.

One of the great thrills for me last Saturday was to see Pendles and Sidey finally get a second flag which their stellar careers have earned.

I would hope that in 2024, they are triple Premiership players with other mates who have won their second (or first).

Floreat Pica

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Take_a_Screamer Leo

.....No.40...Ash Johnson...


Joined: 22 Aug 2018
Location: Melbourne S.E.Suburbs

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 5:47 pm
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Of course the Magpies are under some pressure to go back-to-back… but the club isn’t exactly going to fall apart if they fail in their ambition. Plus, do they even feel pressure? They relish it!

https://www.theroar.com.au/2023/10/03/tom-morris-a-very-early-afl-pressure-gauge-for-2024-which-team-has-no-excuses-not-to-lift/

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Meredith1965 



Joined: 04 Jun 2022


PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 7:25 pm
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Back to back is not the norm, but in the very professional modern era it’s not that rare. Since 2000, Brisbane, Richmond and Hawthorn have done it (and but for Collingwood, Geelong and Richmond might well have gone three-peat, so backing up year after year is pretty normal).

I’d say we are a chance, but a lot depends on when the age curve hits Pendlebury, Elliott, Howe, Crisp, Adams, Cox and Checkers. We might have another year, but it is hard to tell. GWS look to have improvement in them, and Brisbane and Carlton are hungry and probably only going to get better.

Our elite core of Moore, De Goey and N Daicos might continue to improve. Nick D alone could be a premiership swing factor. P

We’ll need the likes of Ed Allen, Charlie Dean and Ash Johnson to improve, I think. A full year from McStay would also help.

Can we do it ? Yep. Are the present odds of ca 4/1 good value ? Nope.
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Clifton Hill-Billy 



Joined: 29 Sep 2011
Location: 3068----> 3076

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 7:57 pm
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I think that we will be around top 4 again but how we go in finals is foo hard to predict how we'll go in finals. I think we need a key forward to compliment checkers and McStay who are more workhorses than match winners in their own right. We cannot rely on another Bobby Hill performance from a small forward to win us back to back premierships, unless that small forward is Billy Elliott. Anyway given statistically we need to lose 2 grand finals (draws don't cou) to win the flag post year 2000, it probably won't happen but we can bask in the glory of possibilities for the next 6 months or so
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:21 pm
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Ten 30+ players in the GF 22 is a lot.

And we still need a star key forward! (And another inside mid.)
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magpieazza 

magpieazza


Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Location: Griffith N.S.W

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:42 pm
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Theres alot of great points made on this post and no one can predict the future.

I feel that the pressure has to come from the bottom half of the list.

I doubt this team will all go through all together at the same time again and I feel we need one or two classy tough midfielders to come in and change the dynamics,
another Tom Mitchell type get would be great!

With Adams, Noble and McStay to add to the hunger with one or two extra classy midfielders and another one or two youngsters then that could be the recipe.

Hunger is a huge factor and a change in about 4 or 5 cattle could do the trick.

Theres no question marks over the coaching staff and recruitment team so for me its about the depth of the squad and a couple fresh faces to come into the club.
Of course injuries play a part but thats mostly out of our hands.

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lanstro 



Joined: 04 Apr 2010


PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 10:59 pm
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Expect the window is still open next year but will close the year after. Our oldest blokes will all naturally stagnate/regress a little, hopefully offset by the younger ones and the core like JDG / Jaicos improving a little. And even if it plays out like that, we didn't have the best list this year and we won't next year. But I'd expect top 4 again next year and give the flag a crack.

After next year you'd assume that we'd be lucky to have one or two of Howe, Sidey, Pendles, Cox, Mitchell, Adams and the like to stay on and perform. Those were some of our best in the finals. I just don't see how how those who weren't in the final 22 this year fill that void. How many on our list are AFL quality, let alone good to elite like the group I listed? McStay, Johnson, Noble, hopefully Allan, maybes: Macrae, Bianco, Reef, Harrison. None of them are going to be coaching on field in Q4 of a grand final, or flushing a 52m set shot, pantsing Hipwood or shutting down Neale while burrowing the ball out time and again. Expecting a little rebuild for a couple of years after that before hopefully the window opens again.
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think positive Libra

Side By Side


Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2023 5:59 am
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A bona fida full forward, lock it in.

It was fun but I’m happy to switch off the weekly defribulator!

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Clifton Hill-Billy 



Joined: 29 Sep 2011
Location: 3068----> 3076

PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2023 7:29 am
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If Adams departs to the pink ducks we definitely need another inside mid, if Titch goes down with a long injury we'd be completely boned. Fin Mcrae or Josh Carmichael just can't play that role to the level required to win another flag
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