What are our chances for 2024?

[qldmagpie67]

Our chances currently are as good as anyone else’s
We will miss McStay he has his knockers but his presence in the forward line gave checkers the 2nd best defender snd opened spaces for Hill Elliott and alike
Down back we need to find a couple defenders. Murphy is 1 head knock away from being done and considering how frequently he’s suffering knocks his chances of completing the 2024 season would be 50/50 at best
Will our senior players have the same drive to go again ? That’s a unknown at the moment
This will be Howe’s last year for sure. That arm injury last year took a lot out of him. Sidey is highly unlikely to go on past this season. I don’t think his knee is anywhere near right still he’s walking with a limp still (seen footage of him entering the building only days ago and he was limping) with all the running he’s done over his career it’s not surprising his legs are tired)
Pendles will go on and soar to 400 games which will drive him
All 3 will still be important parts of any chance we have for going back to back

Our best chance is for for the younger players (20-25) to really take a big step forward
Improvement from Nick D will happen as it will with Josh, IQ is coming into his best years and Markov has young legs not over used, Hill’s confidence will be sky high after what he did in the GF and he should grow, McCreery is the one who I think holds the key. If he can spend time in the mid field with his pace and tackling he could be a real point of difference

Fingers crossed we get through the preseason after Xmas with no injuries and hit the season running

[RudeBoy]

Pretty much agree with your analysis QM67.

I'll just add that I have it very good authority from someone within the inner sanctum, that Ash Johnson is already the fittest he's been, and the club has high hopes for him in 2024. Also, the talk is that Alex Condon's basketball career is going nowhere, and he is very likely to be playing for us by August. Seriously, if this eventuates, we will go back to back to back to back. Bring it on.

[K]

[qldmagpie67]

[Take_a_Screamer]

I should have been Bobby Hill on the cover...

Collingwood fans erupt as AFL Season Guide puts ‘runner-up’ Lachie Neale on front cover
Collingwood may have achieved the ultimate glory in 2023 but their fans still felt hard done by after Lachie Neale adorned the front cover of the 2024 AFL Season Guide.

“To all the Collingwood fans having a meltdown, the Brownlow medallist always features on the cover. Plenty of great Magpies content once you turn the page,” he posted.

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/collingwood-fans-erupt-as-afl-season-guide-puts-runner-up-lachie-neale-on-front-cover--c-12978813

‘Can’t be for real’: Wild reaction from fans after Lions superstar earns yearly honour
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/collingwood-magpies/cant-be-for-real-wild-reaction-from-fans-after-lions-superstar-earns-yearly-honour/news-story/56c0c2749679cb74119bc6e489595f98

[Take_a_Screamer]

Footy Feed: Can the Pies go back-to-back?
Sarah Olle and Josh Gabelich unpack Collingwood’s 2023 premiership season

https://www.afl.com.au/video/1072073/footy-feed-can-the-pies-go-back-to-back?videoId=1072073&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1703188800001

[Rd10.1998_11.1#36]

[pietillidie]

[Presti35]

IMO, who can win the flag in 2024; Pies, Lions, Blues.

GWS, Dees, Swans, Port, Cats will cause a few headaches during the season, but will they be able to improve on their 2023?

Crows, Suns and Dogs cant win it, but can improve in their 2023 and possibly play finals.

No chance: Dons, North, WCE, Freo, Richmond, Hawks, St K.

[David]

Adelaide strike me as the most obvious challengers from outside the top 8 – it's not difficult for me to envision them finishing top 4. To the Blues and Lions, I'd add the Giants and maybe Port as teams that might threaten. Have a feeling Melbourne, Geelong and the Bulldogs are all heading in the opposite direction.

I think there's a good chance the Suns making top 8 for the first time, but I agree with you that they won't win it. Of the last group, this is more guesswork than anything, but I reckon one or more of Fremantle, Hawthorn and St Kilda could surprise. I think North will improve but still finish outside the top 8, Richmond are going to be mediocre again, and that it's going to be another long year for West Coast.

All that might boil down to something like:

1. Collingwood
2. GWS
3. Carlton
4. Brisbane
5. Adelaide
6. Port Adelaide
7. Hawthorn
8. Gold Coast

9. St. Kilda
10. Melbourne
11. Fremantle
12. Sydney
13. North Melbourne
14. Richmond
15. Geelong
16. Essendon
17. Western Bulldogs
18. West Coast

[Take_a_Screamer]

From Jesse (True Footy YT channel)...

Collingwood AFL 2024 Resolutions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypgxPx6miOY

1. Avoid Premiership Hangover
2. Have a fit Charlie Dean option
3. Integrate Lachie schultz seamlessly
4. Finding KF solution for McStay
5. Give exposure to some young midfielders
6. Rely more on depth
7. Recruit another KF

[LaurieHolden]

We can go again, if ~
1) we continue to play the minutes again and break sides who don't possess the mental resilience or fitness to play out 4 quarters. This is our DNA.
2) see a 20% improvement on the average tackle count from each and every player per game. Tackles bring pressure, pressure brings turnovers, we score from turnovers,
3) achieve a percentage > 120%* hence essential we get 50+ goals from a combination of Johnson McInnes. Those that think McStay isn't important will find out pretty quickly why we recruited him if Checkers goes down.
4) Moore remains injury free.
5) have 5X players nominated in the AA squad (Moore, Naicos, Jaicos, IQ, JDG) + IF we have an elite small forward that gets in the squad, all the better.

*H&A 2023 goals > player > H&A 2024 goals forecast ~
• 16 Dan McStay -xx

• 44 Brodie Mihocek >35
• 21 Ash Johnson >35 (we've seen his ability, now we want to see application, that means repeat leading patterns and defensive accoutability)
• 3 Reef McInnes >20
• 0 Nathan Kreuger >10

• 3 Harvey Harrison >10
• 18 Beau McCreery >20
• 3 Reef McInnes >10
• 25 Norm Hill >35
• 38 Jamie Elliott >25
• 33 Lachie Schultz >30
(allows for injuries / players coming in to replace or earn a spot)

Group totals ~
• 2023 H&A goals kicked > 204 (inc Schultz) without 171
• 2024 H&A goals forecast > 230

If the base line forecasts occur, that would result in a 26 goal or a 12% increase on the 2023 H&A season.
Given we'll be likely playing the 2023 top 8 twice in season 2024, I reckon that's a minimum we'll need to improve by offensively to ensure we stay in the top 4 and keep our percentage in the Premiership range of > 120%.

[RudeBoy]

A fitter and stronger 'Magic' Johnson plus the addition of 'Sergeant' Schultz, should result in a considerably better forward line this year. All we need is the emergence of another KPD, especially, given the possibility/probability that Murphy will be retired, if he is concussed again.

[piffdog]

Noted this team published in The Australian/Herald Sun today as the Pies group to kick off the campaign.

FB: I.Quaynor, B.Frampton, B.Maynard
HB: N.Murphy, D.Moore, J.Crisp
C: S.Sidebottom, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos
HF: B.McCreery, B.Mihocek, B.Hill
F: J.Elliott, M.Cox, L.Schultz
Foll: D.Cameron, N. Daicos, J.De Goey
Inter: O.Markov, T.Mitchell, J.Howe, P.Lipinski, A.Johnson (sub)

I don't think I would have Frampton at FB. Yes - he played in the premiership, but as a FF. My starting side (and maybe this would be equivelant to our best side?) would look like:

FB: I.Quaynor, N.Murphy, B.Maynard
HB: J.Howe, D.Moore, J.Crisp
C: S.Sidebottom, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos
HF: B.McCreery, B.Mihocek, B.Hill
FF: J.Elliott, A.Johnson, L.Schultz
Foll: M.Cox, N. Daicos, J.De Goey
Inter: O.Markov, T.Mitchell, D.Cameron, W.Hoskin-Elliott, Sub F.McRae

Throughout the year, I hope Noble can find a spot somewhere.

[LaurieHolden]

2 months out, cadet journo's filling the "best 22" in January quota.
Plenty will happen between now and then.
I'll wait for the pre-game thread and who is firing during the last week of training.