Ladder predictor 2023

[David]

I was going to do a post-Round 22 update of where everything sits, but this article does an extremely thorough job:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-22-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture-scenarios/news-story/8a7ddb596274e9b4f8c0f3d8288133f6

Here’s their predicted top 8:

1. Collingwood
2. Port Adelaide
3. Brisbane
4. Melbourne
5. Carlton
6. Geelong
7. Sydney
8. Adelaide

St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs, GWS and Essendon also all still in the running.

[Raw Hammer]

Being on top all season only to play Melbourne at the MCG week one would be somewhat disastrous, with Carlton and Geelong in the week two match ups. I hate your ladder prediction, David, with every ounce of my soul.

Still hoping for Coll-Melb in the top 2 spots and Port-Bris in the 3-4 spots.

[David]

^ Yep, it's not great. Gives us extra incentive to beat Brisbane next week and then hope that Melbourne can defeat Sydney in the final round.

The plus side is that if we get Melbourne week 1 and win, then we probably end up with a prelim and grand final against interstate teams at the MCG. So that's the glass-half-full way of looking at it!

(PS that top 8 prediction I posted on the previous page was from before the Hawks upset the Bulldogs. I'd have to have another look at the exact permutations, but I think it's now extremely unlikely for Geelong to finish 8th – they'll be 6th or 7th if they win both games, as they jump the Bulldogs, one or both of GWS and Essendon, almost certainly St Kilda and most likely Sydney, and will otherwise miss the finals altogether if they lose either match.)

[BazBoy]

One more win gives us top right
Two losses confident 2nd as can’t see Port making up % even if they finish on 68 points

[Skids]

Carlton top 4? Well, they're a big chance!

D's lose to Hawks this week, then get rolled by the Swans in Sydney and the door is ajar.... my word!

[RudeBoy]

The Dees at the G in week one does not worry me at all. Bring 'em on I say.

[BazBoy]

The Blue Baggers got a healthy %. 4th best in the 8

Could b help them move up eazie

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

matches that will define who we play week 1 finals.

Port and richmond winner tigers
Sydney and Dees winner dees

If this occurs we play port week 1 mcg.

Hope somehow saints get over lions but i dont think they will.

And somehow the flying hawks can upset the dees this round at the mcg.

But the main ones port and tigers and swans and dees.

I can not see Blues make it 4th but they will close but run out of rounds before finals.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Also like freo to win over port at home perth.

my tips port in the qf mcg.

[BazBoy]

It’s a beggars breakfast—-no one knows what is to be served up

Fullness of time boys & girls

[swoop42]

Assuming Carlton wins this weekend Melbourne have the motivation to win one more game to make sure Carlton can't snatch their top 4 spot but beyond that it's a bit of a raffle.

They're in a pretty good spot actually given they'll play the second last H&A match of the season and if a loss would effectively guarantee a "home" final against us at the G I'd be surprised if that isn't the result we get.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Prefer Brisbane if we win this friday night as this would mean come week 1 we have a more recent idea on how to beat them and its more fresher in our minds and besides it will be at the MCG.

They can not possibly move the QF to Marvel to accommodate Brisbane surely.

[Jezza]

Revised ladder prediction.

1. Collingwood
2. Brisbane Lions
3. Port Adelaide
4. Melbourne
5. Carlton
6. Geelong
7. Adelaide
8. Western Bulldogs

[David]

Some big results tonight. Geelong and Adelaide both out of the running now, along with Essendon.

Bulldogs will presumably beat West Coast tomorrow, which will leave the Giants in 9th and the only team outside the 8 that are still able to make it (and St Kilda [52 points], Sydney [50 points] and the Bulldogs [48 points] the three teams that can miss out if the Giants beat Carlton).

The equation is this: Giants make it if they win and either Sydney or the Bulldogs lose (with the lower-placed loser missing the finals). If the latter two both win, GWS overtake St Kilda if the Saints lose and the Giants catch them on percentage. At the moment, that's around an aggregate 54 points (combined Saints' losing margin + Giants' winning margin). So it's very likely that 8th spot will still be at least mathematically up for grabs by the final game of the season next Sunday night when Carlton and GWS play, and if games go as expected, quite likely that the Bulldogs will, just like last year, be hanging on the result of a Carlton match on the final day of the home-and-away season to decide whether or not they play finals.

In terms of top 4, Carlton make it if they win next week and Melbourne lose their last two, against Hawthorn and Sydney. Otherwise, it's still possible for any of Brisbane, Port and Melbourne to finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th and for Brisbane or Collingwood to finish 1st or 2nd – we'll know more after the Fremantle vs Port Adelaide and Melbourne vs Hawthorn games tomorrow.

[David]

Here's my ladder predictor after tonight, anyhow:

1. Collingwood 18 5 0 123.8%
2. Brisbane 17 6 0 124.6%
3. Port Adelaide 17 6 0 112.8%
4. Melbourne 15 8 0 122.4%
5. Carlton 14 8 1 116.1%
6. Sydney 13 9 1 111.4%
7. St Kilda 13 10 0 106.0%
8. Western Bulldogs 12 11 0 110.8%

9. GWS 12 11 0 104.7%
10. Geelong 11 11 1 114.5%
11. Adelaide 11 12 0 117.4%
12. Essendon 11 12 0 91.7%
13. Richmond 10 12 1 93.2%
14. Gold Coast 10 13 0 94.8%
15. Fremantle 9 14 0 94.0%
16. Hawthorn 8 15 0 83.4%
17. North Melbourne 2 21 0 68.8%
18. West Coast 2 21 0 50.6%