Ladder predictor 2023

[dalyc]

Melbourne have to be a decent chance to make 3rd.

[Pies2016]

There’s now a lot riding on the Cats v Port game next week. Cats without Hawkins and Blicavs vs a three losses on the spin, Port at the Cattery.
If Port lose that one, the Dees should then have enough up their sleeve to finish either 2nd or 3rd at the end of the home and aways.

[David]

New predicted ladder, taking all of this weekend’s results into account:

1. Collingwood 20 3 0 136.9% 80
2. Port Adelaide 18 5 0 112.3% 72
3. Melbourne 16 7 0 125.1% 64
4. Brisbane 16 7 0 122.6% 64
5. GWS 14 8 0 110.2% 56
6. Western Bulldogs 13 9 0 111.6% 52
7. Carlton 12 9 1 116.2% 50
8. Adelaide 12 10 0 114.1% 48

9. Geelong 11 11 1 115.7% 46
10. Sydney 11 11 1 106.3% 46
11. Richmond 11 11 1 98.3% 46
12. St. Kilda 11 12 0 100.6% 44
13. Essendon 11 12 0 95.3% 44
14. Gold Coast 10 13 0 92.6% 40
15. Fremantle 9 14 0 89.1% 36
16. Hawthorn 6 17 0 79.5% 24
17. North Melbourne 2 20 0 68.6% 8
18. West Coast 2 20 0 50.8% 8

Run home for finals contenders:

1. Collingwood
Matches to come: Hawthorn (A), Geelong (H), Brisbane (H), Essendon (A)
Projected result: 4–0
Best realistic outcome: 1st – 2 wins, or 1 win with other results going our way, gets us there.
Worst realistic outcome: 2nd to 4th if we beat Hawthorn and drop last three games. In this scenario we’d likely finish equal with Melbourne and Brisbane on wins and our finishing position would depend on percentage.

2. Port Adelaide
Matches to come: Geelong (A), GWS (H), Fremantle (A), Richmond (H)
Projected result: 4–0
Best realistic outcome: 1st if they win all four and Collingwood drop three of their last four.
Worst realistic outcome: 4th if they lose their next two. Drop three out of four and they could even finish 5th if the Giants win their last four.

3. Brisbane
Matches to come: Fremantle (A), Adelaide (H), Collingwood (A), St. Kilda (H)
Projected result: 3–1
Best realistic outcome: 2nd if they win all four and, say, the Cats beat the Power
Worst realistic outcome: 4th – which could happen even if they win all four games, and particularly likely if they only win three, though they could drop further to 5th if they lose their next three and the Giants win all four.

4. Melbourne
Matches to come: North Melbourne (A), Carlton (A), Hawthorn (H), Sydney (A)
Projected result: 3–1
Best realistic outcome: 2nd if they win all four and Port drop one.
Worst realistic outcome: 4th – two easy wins against North and Hawthorn will lock them into the top 4. Will likely be stuck in 4th though unless they beat one of Carlton or Sydney.

5. St Kilda
Matches to come: Carlton (H), Richmond (H), Geelong (H), Brisbane (A)
Projected result: 0–4
Best realistic outcome: 6th if they can win at least two.
Worst realistic outcome: 13th or worse if they lose all four. One win is unlikely to be enough for them to play finals given their percentage.

6. GWS
Matches to come: Sydney (H), Port Adelaide (A), Essendon (H), Carlton (A)
Projected result: 3–1
Best realistic outcome: 5th provided they win three of their next four, though a slim chance of finishing in the top four if they win all four games.
Worst realistic outcome: 13th if they lose all four. Need at least two wins to guarantee a finals spot, but one win may be enough depending on other results.

7. Carlton
Matches to come: St Kilda (A), Melbourne (H), Gold Coast (A), GWS (H)
Projected result: 2–2
Best realistic outcome: 5th if they win all four.
Worst realistic outcome: 14th if they lose all four. Two wins is probably just enough to guarantee them a top 8 spot, but only win one and they probably miss out.

8. Western Bulldogs
Matches to come: Richmond (H), Hawthorn (A), West Coast (H), Geelong (A)
Projected result: 3–1
Best realistic outcome: 5th if they win all four.
Worst realistic outcome: 9th if they lose two (which is pretty unlikely given how soft their draw is). Probably at least a 50/50 chance of still making it if they did only win the two games.

9. Geelong
Matches to come: Port Adelaide (H), Collingwood (A), St Kilda (A), Western Bulldogs (H)
Projected result: 2–2
Best realistic outcome: 5th or 6th if they win all four.
Worst realistic outcome: 14th if they lose all four. Two wins is unlikely to be enough for them to make the top 8, so almost certainly need to win against either Port or Collingwood as well as their last two to qualify.

10. Sydney
Matches to come: GWS (A), Gold Coast (H), Adelaide (A), Melbourne (H)
Projected result: 2–2
Best realistic outcome: 5th if they win all four.
Worst realistic outcome: 14th if they lose all four. Tough draw ahead and almost certainly need to win three out of their last four to play finals.

11. Richmond
Matches to come: Western Bulldogs (A), St Kilda (A), North Melbourne (H), Port Adelaide (A)
Projected result: 2–2
Best realistic outcome: 7th if they can win their next three.
Worst realistic outcome: 13th if they lose against all but North. Given their percentage, two wins won’t be enough to play finals – they need at least three.

12. Adelaide
Matches to come: Gold Coast (H), Brisbane (A), Sydney (H), West Coast (A)
Projected result: 3–1
Best realistic outcome: 8th if they win all bar the Brisbane game and other results go as expected. Four wins and they could get a home elimination final.
Worst realistic outcome: 12th and miss the finals if they lose to Sydney and Brisbane.

13. Essendon
Matches to come: West Coast (H), North Melbourne (A), GWS (A), Collingwood (H)
Projected result: 2–2
Best realistic outcome: 8th, which they may just sneak into if they can win one of their last two games. Would more likely need to go 4–0 to play finals from here though, given their poor percentage.
Worst realistic outcome: 13th – even near-certain wins against West Coast and North don’t get them any higher than this if they can’t win one of their last two.

14. Gold Coast
Matches to come: Adelaide (A), Sydney (A), Carlton (H), North Melbourne (A)
Projected result: 1–3
Best realistic outcome: 7th if they win their last four games, which would guarantee them a top 8 finish. Three wins most likely wouldn’t be enough.
Worst realistic outcome: 15th if they lose all four.

15. Fremantle
Matches to come: Brisbane (H), West Coast (A), Port Adelaide (H), Hawthorn (A)
Projected result: 1–3
Best realistic outcome: 9th if they somehow managed to win their last four. Certainly within the realms of possibility that they could make the finals in that scenario, but it would require other results to go their way. (Changing the above predictions to Gold Coast beating Carlton or Sydney beating Adelaide but then losing to Melbourne would be enough, for instance.)
Worst realistic outcome: 15th

[Skids]

Well after tipping 2 this week, my ladder predictor probably means very little.

1st week of finals I have...

Pies (1st) v D's (4th) MCG
Port (2nd) v Lions (3rd) Adelaide
GWS (5th v Cats (8th) Sydney
Crows (6th) v Dogs (7th) Adelaide

2nd week

D's v GWS
Lions v Crows

Prelims

Pies v Lions

Port v Giants

GF

PIES v Giants

[David]

Updated:

1. Collingwood 18 5 0 124.9% 72
2. Port Adelaide 17 6 0 110.6% 68
3. Melbourne 16 7 0 122.6% 64
4. Brisbane 16 7 0 121.8% 64
5. Geelong 13 9 1 120.0% 54
6. GWS 13 10 0 102.4% 52
7. Carlton 12 10 1 113.2% 50
8. Sydney 12 10 1 110.8% 50

9. Adelaide 12 11 0 115.8% 48
10. Western Bulldogs 12 11 0 106.5% 48
11. St Kilda 12 11 0 102.9% 48
12. Essendon 11 12 0 97.7% 44
13. Richmond 10 12 1 94.6% 42
14. Gold Coast 10 13 0 93.6% 40
15. Fremantle 9 14 0 89.8% 36
16. Hawthorn 8 15 0 84.2% 32
17. North Melbourne 2 21 0 69.2% 8
18. West Coast 2 21 0 55.3% 8

(A few changes since last week – I now have Hawthorn beating the Western Bulldogs down in Tasmania and Geelong beating us this Friday night, I’m sorry to say. Top spot, and quite possibly top two spot, likely depends on beating Brisbane.)

[Raw Hammer]

Unless Pies defeat Bris, we’ll likely fall to 3rd without 2 more wins. Diabolical.

[swoop42]

Fair to say the Brisbane game is already looming large and if we only win one more H&A game for the year that's the one we want.

Failure to win that match, with a single victory in either of the other 2 games, might well not be enough to secure a top 2 position given how close the percentage is between us, Melbourne and Brisbane.

Of course that relies on the assumption that Melbourne and Brisbane win their 3 remaining games.

Hate to say it but for 1 week only, go Blues!

[David]

Not that I want to contemplate missing the top 2, but Melbourne jumping above us may not be such a bad thing – ultimately, it doesn't make much difference if they end up, say, 2nd and we end up 3rd (after all, a few weeks ago it looked likely that that would be our opening match-up anyway, except with us in 1st and them in 4th).

The real nightmare scenario now is a first-up final against Brisbane at the Gabba. So if they're going to pass us, we want them to finish 1st and play Port (the one team that I don't think we should be seriously worried about falling behind at this point).

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

I’ve just done the ladder predictor.
I have done in all types of combinations as well
It is either we play Melbourne or port at the mcg 9 out of 10 times the only way or venue we and if we play them lions is at the mcg.
This is from us winning all 3 to loss all 3 and them as well in all kinds of combinations

[David]

Taking a closer look at the top four and how it relates to us:

Port Adelaide won't catch us (or either of the other teams) on percentage whatever happens, so they're effectively a game behind. Melbourne and Brisbane are very close to each other on percentage (Melbourne is currently ahead by 1.1%) and there's little indication from their draw who will finish higher if they end up on the same points. Both are 2.7% and 3.8% behind us respectively, and you'd expect both of them to make up that gap if we end up on the same points (given that we're losing games and they're winning).

• Melbourne should start favourites in all three games and shouldn't have any trouble against Hawthorn, but both Carlton and Sydney (in Sydney) are danger games for them.
• Brisbane have two games you'd pencil in as wins (against Adelaide and St Kilda at the Gabba) and one against us at Marvel.
• Port Adelaide have a game they should easily win against Richmond in Adelaide, and otherwise will probably start slight favourites against GWS (in Adelaide) and Fremantle (in Perth).

If all three win their last three games, we would finish 4th if we lose all three, 3rd if we only win one game (against Geelong or Essendon), 2nd if our only win comes against Brisbane, and 1st if we win two or more.

So any one of these outcomes guarantees us a home qualifying final:

• Beating Brisbane
• Beating one of Geelong or Essendon and either Brisbane or Melbourne lose a single game from here.

Whereas this scenario ensures we finish 3rd and play Melbourne at the MCG:

• Beating one of Geelong or Essendon and Brisbane wins its three games by more, finishing above Melbourne on percentage

If we lose all three games, there's probably somewhere between a 33% and 50% chance that we play Melbourne in week 1, which would again come down to percentage between them and Brisbane and/or whether one drops a game. (There are also some possible scenarios where we finish 3rd or 4th after losing our last three games and face an away final against Port, but this is the least likely outcome of the three.)

[Skids]

The percentage is going to determine where a lot of teams finish on the ladder.

We dropped 4% last week with just a 32 point loss, so the 2.7% & 3.8% lead we have over D's & Lions can be evaporated in the blink of an eye.

We have to win on Friday night & get our mojo back.

[RudeBoy]

The bottom line is if we are unable to win 2 of our remaining 3 games, we are not good enough for September success.

I tend to be a glass half full kinda guy, so expect we will will do that comfortably and more likely win all 3 of our remaining h & a games. Beating the Cats should help us get our mojo back.

[LaurieHolden]

The latest simulations suggest that there are still 10 teams with a 2-in-5 or better chance of playing Finals, with seven teams realistically competing for four of the eight spots.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

Collingwood: certain of finishing Top 4; and about 75% chance of being Minor Premier

Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and about 20% chance of being Minor Premier

Port Adelaide and Melbourne: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and about 1 to 4% chance of being Minor Premier

Carlton and Western Bulldogs: 85% chance of being finalists; 2 to 7% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

GWS, Geelong, and Sydney: 45 to 60% chance of being finalists; little or no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

St Kilda and Adelaide: 25 to 40% chance of being finalists; little to no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

Essendon, Richmond, and Gold Coast: 1 to 7% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

Source :
http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-simulations

[David]

Who I'm going for this week:

• Adelaide to beat Brisbane – would lock up our top 2 spot provided we beat Geelong
• Melbourne to beat Carlton – arguable whether it's in our interests as Melbourne losing also helps us, but this would at least mean that Carlton still have a chance of missing the finals, plus increase the likelihood that we get a home qualifying final against Port or Brisbane.
• GWS to beat Port Adelaide – confirms that we can't finish lower than 3rd, also increases likelihood of a home qualifying final against Port.

Other games that will have a major bearing on the final makeup of the top 8: Sydney vs Gold Coast, Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs & Richmond vs St Kilda

[RudeBoy]

You could well be right David, but I'm tipping:

Lions to beat the Crows.
Blues to beat Dees.
Port to beat GWS.