Ladder predictor 2023

[buzzlightyear]

[David]

We all live in hope!

And most likely it'll all come down to their final match once again – this time, against GWS. It's in Melbourne, but I have the Giants winning that one narrowly.

[Uncle Jack]

[David]

Now that the top four is more or less settled, what’s most interesting is who finishes 5th to 8th. It’s looking likely at this stage that 12 and a half wins, or 12 wins and a good percentage, might be enough to finish in the top 8, and 13 should make it a certainty. If so, this is roughly how many wins each team needs to make it:

Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, GWS: 2–3
Geelong, Carlton, Richmond: 3
Essendon: 3–4
Sydney, Adelaide: 4
Gold Coast: 4–5

If you divide their remaining games into expected wins, 50–50s and expected losses, you get:

Western Bulldogs: 2/3/0
St Kilda: 0/4/1
GWS: 0/4/1
Geelong: 1/4/0
Carlton: 0/3/2
Richmond: 1/2/2
Essendon: 2/2/1
Sydney: 1/4/0
Adelaide: 2/2/1
Gold Coast: 0/2/3

Based on the above, I think at this stage Gold Coast are the only team that can reasonably be ruled out (though, remarkably, there’s a fair possibility that they would finish 8th if they lost to Brisbane but won their last four games). Others, like Carlton, Richmond, Essendon and Adelaide may need to win all of their matches against fellow contenders. Here are the games that will most likely decide where all of these teams finish, with my tips in bold:

Round 20:
Western Bulldogs vs GWS (Mars)
Essendon vs Sydney (Marvel)
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Hawthorn vs St Kilda (Marvel)
Assumed Geelong win over Fremantle and Richmond and Carlton losses against Melbourne and Collingwood

Round 21:
Western Bulldogs vs Richmond (Marvel)
Geelong vs Port Adelaide (GMHBA)
GWS vs Sydney (Giants Stadium)
St Kilda vs Carlton (Marvel)
Assumed Adelaide and Essendon wins against Gold Coast and West Coast

Round 22:
Collingwood vs Geelong (MCG)
St Kilda vs Richmond (Marvel)
Assumed Essendon, Sydney and Western Bulldogs wins against North Melbourne, Gold Coast and Hawthorn, and Adelaide, Carlton and GWS losses against Brisbane, Melbourne and Port Adelaide

Round 23:
Gold Coast vs Carlton (Heritage Bank)
GWS vs Essendon (Giants Stadium)
Adelaide vs Sydney (Adelaide Oval)
St Kilda vs Geelong (Marvel)
Assumed Richmond and Western Bulldogs wins against North Melbourne and West Coast

Round 24:
Carlton vs GWS (Marvel)
Geelong vs Western Bulldogs (GMHBA)
Sydney vs Melbourne (SCG)
Assumed Adelaide win against West Coast and St Kilda, Essendon and Richmond losses against Brisbane, Collingwood and Port Adelaide

If the above comes to pass, the Western Bulldogs and Geelong should bank the wins they need in the next fortnight to claim 5th and 6th, while Essendon and Adelaide should be all but out of the picture by this time next week, needing upset wins over top sides later on to stay alive; losing to the Bulldogs in round 21 should put Richmond out of contention; and Sydney’s season should be finished by Adelaide in Round 23. GWS should get in with three more wins provided they can get over Carlton in the last round, and kill the Blues’ chances in the process.

All that should leave an underperforming St Kilda to somehow scrape into 8th with 12 wins, provided they can get over both Hawthorn and Richmond. If they don’t, however, it’s possible that both GWS and Carlton qualify regardless of the result of their round 24 match (the latter with as few as 11 and a half wins!). Essendon and Sydney are fainter chances to make it in in this scenario, but would need to win matches they’re not expected to, which makes the match between them this weekend particularly interesting (a win to Essendon and they potentially take St Kilda’s place even if the Saints get those two wins). And Adelaide are back in the picture in a big way if they can beat Port Adelaide; their superior percentage to most other contenders likely gets them in with 12 wins.

Will be interesting to revisit all this next week and see where things stand.

[David]

I hate to say it, but I think Carlton are playing finals now. Only need to beat St Kilda and Gold Coast to get to 12 and a half wins, and I think that'll be enough.

With Geelong and the Bulldogs also probably making it, that likely only leaves 8th spot up for grabs.

[Raw Hammer]

If we were to lose week one and proceed to lose to Carlton the following week, and be eliminated in straight sets… that’d just about do me in.

[David]

As it would all of us! But in the unlikely event we did come up against them in a semi-final, I expect we'd demolish them.

The glass-half full approach is that we'd get the chance to finish their season two years running.

[Skids]

[David]

Far from locked in. They’ll lose today, by the looks of things, and probably start favourites in two of their last four games (vs Sydney and Essendon). Win both of those and they get to 12 wins, which may just be enough. But there are a number of teams that can take their place if they slip up.

[David]

Well, turns out I was wrong about that! But those two results put the Bulldogs and Cats back in the pack too. The Cats now look particularly shaky with games against Port and Collingwood coming up – they probably need to win at least one of those two to qualify.

[Skids]

[David]

Bulldogs still have an easy draw with near guaranteed wins against Hawthorn and West Coast and a match next week against Richmond where they’ll be heavy favourites. So they’re still the most likely, though drop one of those three and it gets tougher.

Can’t count Freo out now either – unlikely it may be, but win all of their last four games and they’re in.

[David]

Remarkably, Brisbane have taken a big percentage hit today – so while they could still in theory catch us, we might have to lose all of our last four games for them to overtake us.

If Adelaide also win tonight, I think top spot is all but locked in.

[Johnno75]

I have us at 19-4 losing to Brisbane and I come up with us playing Port
If we beat Brissy we will play them. Melbourne finish 2nd so we avoid then until a possible GF.

1 Collingwood
2 Melbourne
3 Brisbane
4 Port
5 GWS
6 WB
7 Geel
8 Adel

Geelong beat Port next week and Carlton beat Saints but lose their last 3 (ha ha ha ha)

[What'sinaname]

Dees look like they have stumbled onto a decent forward line.