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Victorian State Election 2022

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:59 pm
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The bottom line is that people who thought the election might be close were engaging in wishful thinking and ignoring the data. No-one in Australian politics gets elected on the primary vote. They get elected two-party preferred - and anyone with half a brain could have seen from the figiures Jezza was posting last week that the ALP was going to walk it in. This, eg, is what one competent analyst published on Saturday morning, based on those same figures. The article is informative - but you don't really need to go beyond the headline: https://theconversation.com/final-victorian-newspoll-gives-labor-a-large-lead-195107

The ALP's victory was so decisive that they have also plainly all but won the 2026 election.

Andrews' winning numbers in the three elections have been 47, 55 and somewhere between 52-56 seats. Even when the LNP was last in government here, it only won 45 seats (and the ALP 43) on a two-party preferred vote of about 51.5% to 48.5%. When Kennett was elected the first time, the LNP won the two-party preferred vote 56.5% to 43.5% and returned 61 seats to the ALP's 27. When you put the ALP and Green seats together in the mix, Saturday's election is about the same rogering but with the political tables turned.

For a third-term opposition, this was a shellacking of historic proportions. Political parties come and go. The Libs may have gone.
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:01 pm
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^ yes P4S but what do Michael Kroger and Peta Credlin think? 🤔😉
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:51 pm
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Well, according to another Crikey article, Peta spent Sky’s election-night coverage looking as if her soul was leaving her body.😂 Not sure what Kroger thinks (is “thought” is an appropriate word, in the specific context of Liberal Party election “strategy”) but Bolt apparently thinks this result is the beginning of the end for Andrews. In a sense, of course, it is. Every football match you win is a week closer to your next loss. The Sun is going to devour the Earth in a few billion years, so there’s still time for a Liberal comeback. On the other hand, if Libs keep taking out and shooting the few people in their party who have pieces of brain lodged in their skulls (my apologies to the Gumby family), they may be looking to the Kennel Control Council, rather than the Electoral Commission, for breed registration, soon enough.
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:12 pm
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Bolt must be Nostradamus: after Daniel Andrews third decisive win which theoretically takes him to 12 years it may well be the beginning of his end 😂😂.
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:58 pm
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/28/dictator-dan-has-won-the-victorian-election-despite-being-despised-by-every-single-person-on-earth
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:17 am
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https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/28/legalise-cannabis-and-other-progressive-parties-could-hold-balance-of-power-in-victorian-upper-house
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:52 am
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While I support their cause, I do wonder if some people are being a little optimistic in lumping Legalise Cannabis (who could end up with as many as 4 upper house seats) in with the "progressive" bloc. Single-issue parties are notorious for attracting all sorts, and there's already precedent for elected members of this party to go off on their own tangent: one of the two Legalise Cannabis candidates sent to the upper house in last year's WA state election ended up being a staunch anti-vaxxer and transphobe, for instance.

For better or for worse, it looks unlikely that Labor will depend on their votes to get legislation through, but it does seem screwy that a party that has scored around 4% of the upper house primary vote could end up with more seats than the Greens (who scored well in the double figures in some upper house regions) thanks to preference harvesting.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:48 am
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On further inspection, it looks like Labor might well have to deal with LC after all – the ABC calculator is now suggesting Fiona Patten might lose her seat to the DLP's Adem Somyurek and that the Greens and Legalise Cannabis are looking at 3 seats each. With Labor headed for 15 seats and 21 needed for a majority, that would make things a little more tenuous for them (Animal Justice are also in the mix to win one seat, but that's it for the progressive side of politics). Far from a foregone conclusion that Patten loses, and the Greens might well still end up on 4, but if one of those results doesn't transpire then perhaps marijuana might be on the agenda in the next four years after all...

Here's the full legislative council situation as it stands so far:

More or less guaranteed seats
14 Labor
12 Coalition
2 Greens
1 Animal Justice
1 Legalise Cannabis
1 Shooters & Fishers
1 One Nation

Seats still up for grabs
NE Metro (2): Greens and Liberals leading with DLP and Liberal Democrats possibilities to beat the Libs and Transport Matters a more remote possibility of beating the Greens
Eastern Vic (1): Labor very likely with Legalise Cannabis a slight possibility
Northern Metro (1): Toss-up between Reason and DLP
South Eastern Metro (1): Liberals leading with Liberal Democrats a possibility
Western Metro (2): Legalise Cannabis and Liberals leading with Victorian Socialists a possibility to overtake LC and DLP a slighter possibility to overtake the Liberals
Western Vic (1) : Toss-up between the Greens and Legalise Cannabis

Best outcome for mine would be that Greens win NE Metro and Western Vic, Reason win Northern Metro, the Socialists win one of the Western Metro seats and Legalise Cannabis get over the line in Eastern Vic (I don't particularly care who wins between the Liberals and the right-wing minors in NE Metro, SE Metro and Western Metro). That would leave Andrews requiring 7 votes from a mix of 4 Greens, 2 Legalise Cannabis, 1 Reason, 1 AJP and 1 Victorian Socialists, which is, I think, a pretty healthy + progressive mix of crossbenchers that will keep Labor accountable.

Worst case scenario, on the other hand, is that Greens fall to Transport Matters in NE Metro and the DLP get over the line in Northern Metro, in which case Labor would have the slimmest of progressive majorities and be entirely dependent on all elected Legalise Cannabis members being sensible.

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:37 pm
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-29/vic-election-result-liberal-party-sam-mcquestin-steps-down/101711288
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:11 pm
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I feel sorry for Bec Judd who opined some time ago about the high crime rates in Brighton and that she felt unsafe in her own home (McMansion) part of the anti Dan Andrews campaign being waged by her & her ilk. After being amplified by the Murdoch press (making people feel anxious then attributing this to the thrice elected Premier) the crime stats came out showing lower crime in Brighton and showing what a fraud she is when it comes to ‘her political lies.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:52 pm
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^

Don't feel sorry for her, she's made a shitpile of money for doing basically nothing. Instagram Influencer, FMD, her and her ilk should all be herded into a shipping container, along with every person who's been on one of those reality dating programs, and dropped off in Antarctica with a single camera to stream their collective last hours.

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think positive Libra

Side By Side


Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:41 pm
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and the Kartrashians! Ugh
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Jezza Taurus

2023 PREMIERS!


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:49 pm
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Thanks for the updates on the Legislative Council, David.

In relation to the Legislative Assembly:

Seats (69.9% counted)

Labor = 51
Coalition = 25
Greens = 4
Other = 0

Primary Vote: (69.9% counted)

Labor = 37.1% (-5.8]
Coalition = 35.0% (-0.2)
Greens = 10.9% (+0.2)
Other = 17.0% (+5.8]

Two Party Preferred: (69.9% counted)

Labor = 54.2% (-3.1)
Coalition = 45.8% (+3.1)

Seats gained and lost:

Labor gains Glen Waverley and Ripon.
Labor lost Richmond and Nepean.

Coalition gains Nepean, Shepparton, Morwell and Mildura.
Coalition lost Glen Waverley and Ripon.

Greens gain Richmond.
Greens have no losses.

Independents have no gains.
Independents lost Mildura, Morwell and Shepparton.

Seats in Doubt:

Bass = Labor 50.1 - 49.9 Coalition - (70.8% counted)
Hastings = Labor 50.8 - 49.2 Coalition - (79.1% counted)
Hawthorn = Coalition 50.7 - 49.3 Teal - (71.0% counted)
Mornington = Coalition 50.4 - 49.6 Teal - (81.0% counted)
Northcote = Labor 51.3 - 48.7 Greens - (72.6% counted)
Pakenham = Labor 50.0 - 50.0 Coalition - (75.7% counted)
Preston = Labor 52.2 - 47.8 Independent - (63.0% counted)

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:54 pm
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Update after counting today. Decided: ALP 52, Greens 4, LNP 26. In doubt: 3 likely ALP (Bass, Hastings and Preston), 1 likely LNP (Mornington), 1 on an actual knife-edge (Pakenham - Libs leading by 5 votes, 80.1% counted) and Narracan needs a fresh election.

So, it's looking like ALP 55 or 56, Greens 4, LNP 27 or 28 before the Narracan election. The LNP (or possibly a conservative independent) will win Narracan, so it looks likely that the Assembly will see the ALP with either the same majority as before the election or one additional seat, plus the presence of 4 Greens. It certainly appeatrs as if, despite everything, the progressive numbers in the Assembly will have increased by either 1 or 2 since the 2018 election.
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Jezza Taurus

2023 PREMIERS!


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:33 pm
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UPDATE.

Seats (73.1% counted)

Labor = 52
Coalition = 26
Greens = 4
Other = 0

Primary Vote: (73.1% counted)

Labor = 37.1% (-5.8]
Coalition = 35.0% (-0.2)
Greens = 10.9% (+0.2)
Other = 17.0% (+5.8]

Two Party Preferred: (73.1% counted)

Labor = 54.2% (-3.1)
Coalition = 45.8% (+3.1)

Seats gained and lost:

Labor gains Glen Waverley and Ripon.
Labor lost Hawthorn, Richmond and Nepean.

Coalition gains Nepean, Shepparton, Morwell, Mildura and Hawthorn.
Coalition lost Glen Waverley and Ripon.

Greens gain Richmond.
Greens have no losses.

Independents have no gains.
Independents lost Mildura, Morwell and Shepparton.

Seats in Doubt:

Bass = Labor 50.3 - 49.7 Coalition - (77.8% counted)
Hastings = Labor 50.9 - 49.1 Coalition - (82.2% counted)
Mornington = Coalition 50.5 - 49.5 Teal - (84.5% counted)
Pakenham = Coalition 50.0 - 50.0 Labor - (80.1% counted)
Preston = Labor 50.9 - 49.1 Independent - (72.2% counted)

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