Victorian State Election 2022

[Jezza]

My early analysis based on the trends and data we've witnessed.

[*] The Liberals went backwards in the middle class eastern suburbs, in electorates such as Ringwood, Box Hill, Glen Waverley and Ashwood. These were seats they were hoping to win but lost further ground in.

[*] The Teals fail to replicate their Federal election success. They may still win Mornington and Hawthorn, but postals generally favour the Liberals. They didn't come close in Brighton and Caulfield and lost in Kew.

[*] The Nationals exceeded expectations holding all regional seats and winning back Mildura and Shepparton from the independents. The Liberals were able to hold on to Benambra.

[*] The Greens primary largely stays the same from the last election, but Liberal preferences helped them gain Richmond. Overall, I think they've underachieved as I think they thought they were going to also gain Northcote and possibly Pascoe Vale.

[*] The western suburbs independents in Melton, Point Cook and Werribee all failed to unseat Labor. The primary vote for these candidates was far lower than expected.

[*] The Liberals had massive swings in their favour in the North and West but the margins were too great to overcome to win any seats in these areas.

[*] Despite the talk of a massive crossbench and an increase in the primary vote of 'Other', it's possible no independents will win a seat in this election.

[Jezza]

As it stands:

Seats (67.9% counted)

Labor = 50
Coalition = 25
Greens = 4
Other = 0

Primary Vote: (67.9% counted)

Labor = 37.0% (-5.9)
Coalition = 35.1% (-0.1)
Greens = 10.9% (+0.2)
Other = 17.0% (+5.8]

Two Party Preferred: (67.9% counted)

Labor = 54.2% (-3.1)
Coalition = 45.8% (+3.1)

Seats gained and lost:

Labor gains Glen Waverley and Ripon.
Labor lost Nepean and Richmond.

Coalition gains Morwell, Nepean, Mildura, Shepparton.
Coalition lost Glen Waverley and Ripon.

Greens gain Richmond.
Greens have no losses.

Independents have no gains.
Independents lost Mildura, Morwell and Shepparton.

Seats in Doubt:

Bass = Labor 50.4 - 49.6 Coalition - (67.4% counted)
Hastings = Labor 50.7 - 49.3 Coalition - (75.9% counted)
Hawthorn = Coalition 50.7 - 49.3 Teal - (70.9% counted)
Melton = Labor 54.8 - 45.2 Coalition - (73.0% counted)
Mornington = Coalition 50.2 - 49.8 Teal - (78.1% counted)
Northcote = Labor 51.2 - 48.8 Greens - (72.5% counted)
Pakenham = Labor 51.6 - 48.4 Coalition - (71.1% counted)
Preston = Labor 52.2 - 47.8 Greens - (58.2% counted)

[stui magpie]

Disappointing result, 4 more years of Chairman Dan, but shit happens, the sun came up this morning and I spent the day with my Grandson.

[Jezza]

^ I share your sentiments, Stui.

Life goes on.

[doriswilgus]

Good Lord what a disaster for the Victorian Liberals.They might as well give up.Imagine if Peter Dutton had campaigned for them in the election.The result would have been even worse for them.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Biut a great day for people who can read and write. The Liberals aren't fit to clean toilets in a COVID facility, let alone govern.

Fact is, there was a lot of ridiculous noise about the pandemic response - but Victorians, on the whole, plainly agreed with it. It was a really stupid idea for the LNP to make the election a referendum about Andrews' handling of the pandemic. Plainly, people saw that for the cynical poll strategy it was - perhaps because they recalled the LNP whingeing early about the number of people dead in Victoria (remember when the former leader was getting himself photoghraphed in a field with "the tombs of the unknown COVID victims"?) and then pausing to change feet when they realised that about 5 noisy idiots thought Andrews' response was inappropriate.

Ultimately, what the votes disclose is that the safe ALP electorates sent a little protest message, easy in the knowledge the protest wouldn't affect the result (much as we did at Federal level when we voted Phil Cleary into Wills) - but the ALP numbers held steady in the parts of Melbourne that actually decide the Victorian government.

What the LNP now needs to appreciate is that it was unable to make a meaningful play for government despite deteriorating economic conditions (almost always a catalyst for election backlash against a sitting government) and sui generis crisis conditions that haven't previously been seen in any living voter's lifetime. If they couldn't make inroads in that context, perhaps they should turn out the lights and leave. They are plainly irrelevant - and likely to become more marginal as time progresses and the reactionary idiots of my era and older who tended to vote for them in significant numbers do the right thing by the future and die.

[Pies4shaw]

Further counting today has given the ALP 2 more seats of the 8 "in doubt", so they are up to 52 seats, now and - as I mentioned earlier - lead in all but two of the others. 56 is looking more and more likely as counting progresses.

Just on the Premier's vote in his own electorate, there has been (subject to further counting) about a 5% swing against him, two-party preferred - so the Libs got back some of the 8.2% swing to him at the 2018 poll. That is, his electorate is safer, now, than it was before the 2018 Danslide.

I missed this in The Age (which I generally don't read):

[stui magpie]

[Pies4shaw]

^ The ALP occupies the middle ground. There is no room there for the Liberals as "ALP-lite".

The Libs preselect "fanatic imbeciles" (as they have done for many years - it is no accident that Finn was in Parliament on and off for 30 years) because that's their constituency. They haven't moved anywhere much on the spectrum in the last 6 decades - it's just that enough people with the vote seem to be a little less tolerant of neo-fascism than they used to be.

[stui magpie]

The ALP don't occupy it by right, the Vic Libs conceded it. 2 (or more) parties can compete for the middle ground, the winner is the one who puts the most palatable sauce on the pie even if they don't occupy all of it.

[Bruce Gonsalves]

Where and when do I pick up my free tampons?

[watt price tully]

[think positive]

hehe thats a funny headline

i was wrapped cos it pissed so many people i know off so much!

really makes me wonder who voted for him but then, maybe my friends are all ...god know! i was lazy, i was pissed at something and just voted 1 animal justice party, not the fake one! so im not sure who got my vote!!

as an aside im picking up 2 6 year old sheep whos lambing days will be over, they will join my already spoilt brats and live a safe, happy, stress free spoilt back scratching life! and these 2 dont need clipping, they shed in spring! bless em!

im also looking at adopting some ex battery cage hens, just trying to contact the guy who has them, he goes state wide and rescues them, and sells them to good homes only for $6 each, which doesnt cover his transport and feeding fees, he does it for love. thats a good guy! cheers

Go Dan! i reckon he deserves it!

[stui magpie]

[eddiesmith]