Victorian State Election 2022

[stui magpie]

So we go to the Polls on 26 November in the most underwhelming build up in recent memory.

Both sides promising to build new hospitals, fix everything that's broken and are generally full of sh1t.

WPT's old mate sums up the general feeling as such.

[David]

Started to follow this in earnest in the past couple of days. A comfortable Labor win still seems a foregone conclusion, but a big question will be what happens with the legislative council.

Last term, Labor needed – and ended up greatly depending on – three crossbenchers from the Greens, Animal Justice Party and Reason to get legislation through, and were otherwise faced with a gaggle of mostly right-leaning independents and microparties to contend with.

One of the reasons that happened is that Victorian Labor have stubbornly refused to reform the voting system here to bring it into line with all other state/territory upper houses and the senate, instead clinging on to the old "vote 1 above the line" method that allows microparties to do convoluted preferencing deals and enables candidates to win off tiny percentages. So we can reasonably expect more of the same this election, with a whole group of new minor or rebranded minor parties to contend with. Some of those include:

• The Angry Victorians Party (an offshoot of the Australian Values Party, headed up by an ex-cop/soldier with a bunch of policies from across the political spectrum)
• The Companions and Pets Party (a benignly named party that actually seeks to roll back animal-welfare legislation around things like greyhound racing and puppy farms; they’ve been specifically set up to "counterbalance the rise of animal liberationism")
• Family First (a new party unrelated to the outfit of the same name that elected Steve Fielding and Bob Day; this one has more direct ties with the Australian Christian Lobby and is even more fixated on gay/trans stuff)
• Freedom Party (a party set up by former Neighbours actor Damien Richardson to cater to the anti-vaxx / anti-lockdown "freedom rally" crowd)
• New Democrats (a "party" that seems to serve no other purpose than to get former Labor MP and Adem Somyurek ally Kaushaliya Vaghela re-elected; has no policies announced so far as I can tell)

Speaking of Somyurek, I read today that he’s standing for the hardline Catholic, anti-abortion, pro-business DLP, which goes to show how much Labor careerists care about the views or policies they espouse compared to the desire to ride the gravy train by any means necessary.

Anyway, if you want to minimise the chances of policy being held to ransom by these clowns over the next four years (or, like me, would prefer a different set of clowns to be in that position ), remember to vote below the line. You can number as few as five candidates for your vote to count. Otherwise, you really have no control over where your vote goes.

[think positive]

thats actually good info, i wonder how many people will be conned by the pets party, thats disgusting

[David]

I was wondering that too; was combing through their website wondering why this party exists and what they stand for (as most of their policies seemed pretty middle-of-the-road, with a few hints dropped about looking after the rights of animal owners to work with animals as they see fit, including "racing greyhounds"). Then I saw the blurb for this paywalled article:

https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/politics/victorian-election-2022-companions-and-pets-party-aims-for-upper-house-seat/news-story/6faf7b2ce7cb8435a3055685c3a18fe0

[think positive]

scumbags

crazy they can use that name, dusgusting

[stui magpie]

That's quite deceptive actually, I hope they don't get anyone elected.

The Palmer party had a stall at Thommo Market on Sunday, they seemed to have given away at least a dozen yellow caps.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, Labor should win easy but there is still a lot of resentment toward Dan out there which may not be showing in the polls. However it plays, I don't expect the Libs to do much damage, except maybe to themselves.

[eddiesmith]

It's interesting to see Dan's biggest supporters from the last 2 elections the UFU and ones who were crucial in his election in 2014 completely turning on him and going hard against the government.

The thing is their message of anti Labor, vote Greens is actually getting lost as simply don't vote for Dan so could backfire if he actually loses

But it's interesting to see a powerful pro Dan union turn on him solely because the leader of the union got in an internal party struggle and he's turned the entire unions agenda to suit himself.

[David]

I’m not overly surprised to see the union back Greens candidates – there are a few unions whose members have backed the Greens over Labor in recent times – but I am surprised that they’re going around advocating putting Labor last in key seats (or at least were back in April). I guess the question is whether they’re only doing it in Labor/Greens seats or also ones the Liberals can win. If the latter, they’re not messing around!

https://amp.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/firefighters-union-stokes-up-its-attack-on-labor-targeting-vulnerable-seats-20220426-p5ag31.html

[eddiesmith]

Still going hard against Labor including in regional seats where you'd think the Greens were zero chance of winning.

They are quick to point they'd obviously never want a Coalition government, but their billboards simply say put Labor last.

[Pies4shaw]

^ People who can read and write but have decided they can't vote for the ALP will turn naturally to the Greens, so their billboards don't have to say anything else. They aren't interested in trying to split the mouth-breather vote.

[think positive]

Ok guys, make it easy for me please☺️

Can you please give me a lit if what each party us offering that you think I care about!


If anything the answers could be interesting!

[David]

Not that I would want to sway you towards voting for Matthew Guy, but I think it's true that the Andrews government has been pretty good for renters and maybe less so for landlords, and that a Liberal state government will probably reverse that polarity. Personally, I'm all in favour of what Labor has done on that front, but I understand that people with property might feel differently.

In terms of animal welfare, I'm assuming you'd like to see the AJP returned and to be in an even stronger position of bargaining power in the upper house. I do suspect this is a position that Labor is more amenable to, and I think it's reasonable to worry that the Liberals might roll back some legislation (not sure what their actual policies on that front are, if any).

Edit: This slipped my mind, but going back to add it in: public transport! It's going to take ages to come to fruition, but I would love to see the suburban rail loop happen. Pretty likely that gets shelved forever if Guy gets in, whereas Andrews has committed to it and it seems to be beyond the thought-bubble stage now (with federal funding being directed last I checked).

If you care about tackling climate change – as we all should – the Greens should be high in your preference list. Perhaps there's less they can do at a state as opposed to federal level, but they're really the only party in any realistic position to be capable of exerting pressure on Labor if Andrews gets re-elected. And Labor do love to have it both ways on this issue. Personally, I would like to see Andrews get back in, but I very much don't want the legislative council to be a rubber stamp. I think one thing we might be able to agree on is that the best case scenario is that they have to negotiate with reasonable people (e.g. some of the Teal-adjacent independents) in both houses. So again, use your preferences! A vote for an indie in the lower house with a major party as your second (or third) preference is a much better use of your ballot than just giving Labor or Liberal your top vote.

One thing I'd tell right-leaning friends is go ahead and vote Liberal or Liberal Democrats or Shooters and Fishers or even one of the anti-vaxx groups if that's your persuasion, but for god's sake don't encourage the United Australia Party – they're the biggest bunch of phonies out there, and are blatantly only in it for Palmer and his cronies' (first Craig Kelly, now Geoff Shaw) back pockets. The same goes for the DLP and their new frontman Somyurek. These people are just opportunists and grifters who don't deserve to be taken seriously by anyone from any position on the political spectrum.

Lastly: please vote below the line, and tell everyone you know to do the same! A 1 in the top line on the legislative council ballot is a decision to send your vote out into the wilderness. You could be voting for someone you like and end up contributing to the election of some random weirdo or even someone on the entirely opposite end of the political spectrum. All that stuff is figured out behind the scenes in arcane preference deals. It takes a little longer, sure, but at least numbering your own candidates ensures your own preferences matter.

[stui magpie]

My view is that both Libs and Labs are promising shitpiles of money for everything. Pity Labor hadn't spent some of the money it's now promising to health on health prior to the pandemic instead of squaring with the CFMEU.

I'll be voting Liberal first and labor last primarily because I think Andrews is a lying, autocratic, arrogant, dictatorial cnut (and those are his good points), not because I think the Libs have any genuine clue or chance.

I expect a Labor win, after a decent swing away toward independants, and an upper house packed full of fruit loops. So vote for who you'd like to govern for the next 3 years, whoever that may be.

[Jezza]

[Jezza]

Broadly, I think most are expecting a Labor victory in some shape or form. The interest might be whether they lose enough seats that forces them into minority government or not.

The most recent polls have Labor's primary around 37 or 38, which is a drop of about 5 to 6% from the 2018 election. The Coalition has made small or no gains from Labor's primary drop with most votes likely to go to the Greens (2 or 3% increase) and Other (3% or 4% increase).

I can envisage an outcome of something along the lines of Labor 49, Coalition 30, Greens 5 and Other 4. Though this is a very loose prediction with 18 days left until the election.

Seats to watch:

Labor vs Coalition

- Ripon
- Bayswater
- Yan Yean
- Morwell (held by independent, but the incumbent is retiring)
- Sandringham
- Hastings
- Pakenham
- Glen Waverley
- Melton (Coalition aiming to win this, but more likely to fall to an independent)
- Box Hill
- Ashwood
- Ringwood
- South Barwon
- Cranbourne


Labor vs Greens

- Northcote
- Richmond
- Prahran
- Albert Park

Greens will retain Melbourne and Brunswick. I think the Greens will win Northcote, Richmond and Prahran and Labor holds onto Albert Park. The Greens primary has been around 12-13% in the last few polls I've seen which is an increase from 2018 where they won 3 seats.


Labor vs Independent
- Melton
- Point Cook
- Werribee

All outer Western suburban seats. The independents in these electorates are running on Labor neglect. They view Labor as neglecting these electorates and taking them for granted with a lack of upgrades with roads, hospitals etc. I think Labor's most vulnerable in Melton and then Point Cook. I think they hold onto Werribee.

- Bellarine
- Mulgrave (Andrews' seat)

Labor should win both of these seats, despite independents being their main threat.


Coalition vs Teals

- Brighton
- Caulfield (three-way contest between the Coalition, Teal and Labor)
- Hawthorn (currently held by Labor, but not expected to retain)
- Kew
- Mornington

A repeat of the Federal election in some ways. The Coalition lost several traditional blue-ribbon seats to the Teals and this might be replicated in a few weeks time.


Coalition vs Independent

- Benambra
- Mildura
- Shepparton

The Coalition needs to win back Mildura and Shepparton to have any hope in this election. Benambra was one of the closest seats in 2018.