Victorian State Election 2022

[David]

Legislative Council results being released this morning.

First up is Eastern Victoria: it's Labor 2, Coalition 2, Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1 (no surprises there)
And in North Eastern Metropolitan, it's Labor 2, Coalition 2, Greens 1 (as expected, the Transport Matters preference harvesting mission fell short, and Rod Barton has lost his seat)

Cumulative table (40 seats in total, 21 needed to pass legislation):
Labor 4
Coalition 4
Greens 1
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1

[David]

Next, Northern Metropolitan: Labor 2, Coalition 1, Greens 1, DLP 1 (as expected, Fiona Patten loses her seat to Adem Somyurek)

Cumulative table (40 seats in total, 21 needed to pass legislation):
Labor 6
Coalition 5
Greens 2
DLP 1
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1

[David]

Results for Northern Victoria: Coalition 2, Labor 1, Animal Justice 1, One Nation 1 (One Nation holds off the challenge from Labor and scores their first ever Victorian seat)

Cumulative table (40 seats in total, 21 needed to pass legislation):
Labor 7
Coalition 7
Greens 2
Animal Justice 1
DLP 1
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1
One Nation 1

[David]

For South Eastern Metropolitan, it's Labor 2, Coalition 1, Legalise Cannabis 1, Liberal Democrats 1 (the Liberal Democrats' David Limbrick has held off the Coalition in a tight race here, and former Reason Party candidate Rachel Payne wins Legalise Cannabis's first ever Victorian seat)

Cumulative table (40 seats in total, 21 needed to pass legislation):
Labor 9
Coalition 8
Greens 2
Animal Justice 1
Legalise Cannabis 1
Liberal Democrats 1
DLP 1
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1
One Nation 1

[David]

In Southern Metropolitan, long one of the clearest outcomes, it's Labor 2, Coalition 2, Greens 1

Cumulative table (40 seats in total, 21 needed to pass legislation):
Labor 11
Coalition 10
Greens 3
Animal Justice 1
Legalise Cannabis 1
Liberal Democrats 1
DLP 1
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1
One Nation 1

[David]

Western Metropolitan is where things get really interesting – this was the one region where the winners of two out of five seats have been unclear until now.

It's 2 Labor, 2 Coalition, 1 Legalise Cannabis (Legalise Cannabis holds off the Victorian Socialists, and the Coalition keep the DLP's Bernie Finn out)

Cumulative table (40 seats in total, 21 needed to pass legislation):
Labor 13
Coalition 12
Greens 3
Legalise Cannabis 2
Animal Justice 1
Liberal Democrats 1
DLP 1
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1
One Nation 1

Only one seat to go now – Western Victoria, where the major parties are expected to pick up two each and the main point of interest will be whether the Greens or Legalise Cannabis win the last seat.

[David]

And last but not least, here's Western Victoria: Labor 2, Coalition 2, Greens 1 (the Greens' Sarah Mansfield wins narrowly over self-proclaimed "centrist" Legalise Cannabis candidate Andrew Dowling)

Final table (40 seats in total, 21 needed to pass legislation):
Labor 15
Coalition 14
Greens 4
Legalise Cannabis 2
Animal Justice 1
Liberal Democrats 1
DLP 1
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1
One Nation 1

To pass bills, Labor will need six votes from a mix of the Greens (4), Legalise Cannabis (2) and Animal Justice (1). The Greens and Legalise Cannabis are going to effectively share the balance of power, as Labor will need both on board to get any legislation through.

On the other side, the right-wing crossbench looks to be too small to have any influence over the next four years, even if Labor want to, say, freeze out the Greens. A pretty good result all round, I think.

[Jezza]

[David]

Some intel on the new upper house crossbenchers:

David Ettershank (Legalise Cannabis Party): A local issues campaigner who chaired the anti-development Kensington Association. There's not much about him online, but an overview of the Kensington Association's activities here:
https://www.northwestcitynews.com.au/a-brief-history-of-the-kensington-association/
And a little more from him here: https://lcvicparty.org/chill-the-f-out-says-legalise-cannabis-victoria/

Rachel Payne (Legalise Cannabis Party): A former sex worker and general manager of the Eros Association who ran for the Reason Party last election. Seems to be something of a successor to Fiona Patten, with many of the same priorities.
https://medium.com/intimate/adult-impact-rachel-payne-697bea1f5aa7

Georgie Purcell (Animal Justice Party): A 30-year-old vegan and former union official who describes her priorities as "fighting the climate emergency, housing affordability, job security, ending animal cruelty, First Nations justice and equality for women and LGBTQIA+ communities"
https://timesnewsgroup.com.au/bendigotimes/news/animal-justice-party-reveals-candidate/

Rikki-Lee Tyrrell (One Nation): A farmer from Invergordon who seems motivated by the usual things: anti-immigration, climate change denial, anti-UN, etc. Her Facebook page is here:
https://www.facebook.com/profile/100066792135716/

Jeff Bourman (SFF), David Limbrick (Liberal Democrats) and Adem Somyurek (former Labor and independent, now DLP) have all been re-elected. For the Greens, leader Samantha Ratnam has been joined by Katherine Copsey (https://greens.org.au/vic/person/katherine-copsey), Sarah Mansfield (https://greens.org.au/vic/person/sarah-mansfield) and Aiv Puglielli (https://greens.org.au/vic/person/aiv-puglielli).

The net Legislative Council changes are: on the progressive side, Labor down 3, Reason down 1, Greens up 3, Legalise Cannabis up 2; and on the more conservative side, Coalition up 3, One Nation up 1, DLP up 1, Hinch Justice down 3, Sustainable Australia down 1, Lib Dems down 1, Transport Matters (perhaps more centrist than conservative) down 1. So, not a radical shift on pure numbers (just one seat added to the progressive bloc), but the left side has definitely shifted more to the left, and the right is a bit more homogeneous than it was previously, with smaller crossbench representation and fewer special-interest candidates.

[eddiesmith]

Did Andy Meddick lose his seat or didn’t he stand?

[Jezza]

Overall primary vote for the upper house:

Labor (15 seats) = 32.99% (1,238,995 votes)
Coalition (14 seats) = 29.43% (1,105,169 votes)
Greens (4 seats) = 10.32% (387,479 votes)
Legalise Cannabis (2 seats) = 4.09% (153,438 votes)
Labour DLP (1 seat) = 3.51% (131,644 votes)
Liberal Democrats (1 seat) = 2.64% (99,158 votes)
One Nation (1 seat) = 2.05% (76,854 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (1 seat) = 2.04% (76,770 votes)
Family First = 2.01% (75,374 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1.53% (57,476 votes)
Animal Justice (1 seat) = 1.51% (56,878 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 1.39% (52,336 votes)
Reason = 1.26% (47,178 votes)
Freedom = 1.07% (39,993 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 0.83% (31,320 votes)
United Australia = 0.83% (31,160 votes)
Health Australia = 0.58% (21,838 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 0.47% (17,657 votes)
Companion and Pets = 0.44% (16,558 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.40% (14,983 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.28% (10,663 votes)
New Democrats = 0.21% (7,815 votes)
Group E (Western Victoria) = 0.05% (1,841 votes)
Group U (Western Victoria) = 0.04% (1,644 votes)
Ungrouped = 0.02% (900 votes)

[Jezza]

[Jezza]

Primaries for each region:

North Eastern Metro

Labor (2 seats) = 33.71% (162,986 votes)
Coalition (2 seats) = 30.32% (145,921 votes)
Greens (1 seat) = 10.39% (49,986 votes)
Labour DLP = 5.21% (25,073 votes)
Liberal Democrats = 4.23% (20,376 votes)
Legalise Cannabis = 3.19% (15,369 votes)
Family First = 2.09% (10,078 votes)
Animal Justice = 1.41% (6,798 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1.40% (6,760 votes)
One Nation = 1.27% (6,092 votes)
Reason = 0.99% (4,776 votes)
Freedom = 0.98% (4,692 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 0.91% (4,400 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 0.67% (3,237 votes)
Health Australia = 0.66% (3,181 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 0.54% (2,586 votes)
United Australia = 0.51% (2,432 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 0.39% (1,894 votes)
Companions and Pets = 0.36% (1,751 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.35% (1,686 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.21% (1,025 votes)
New Democrats = 0.19% (892 votes)
Ungrouped = 0.04% (178 votes)


Eastern Victoria

Coalition (2 seats) = 36.37% (172,242 votes)
Labor (2 seats) = 26.50% (125,511 votes)
Greens = 7.97% (37,761 votes)
Legalise Cannabis = 4.15% (19,672 votes)
Labour DLP = 3.83% (18,132 votes)
One Nation = 3.59% (16,986 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (1 seat) = 3.00% (14,214 votes)
Liberal Democrats = 2.56% (12,145 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 2.01% (9,531 votes)
Animal Justice = 1.78% (8,411 votes)
Freedom = 1.77% (8,391 votes)
Family First = 1.61% (7,635 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 0.84% (3,986 votes)
Reason = 0.74% (3,506 votes)
United Australia = 0.72% (3,392 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 0.49% (2,313 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.49% (2,309 votes)
Companions and Pets = 0.48% (2,270 votes)
Health Australia = 0.41% (1,925 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 0.37% (1,772 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.16% (736 votes)
New Democrats = 0.12% (547 votes)


Northern Metro

Labor (2 seats) = 33.37% (151,179 votes)
Coalition (1 seat) = 18.85% (85,389 votes)
Greens (1 seat) = 18.59% (84,214 votes)
Labour DLP (1 seat) = 4.79% (21,699 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 4.71% (21,335 votes)
Reason = 3.61% (16,359 votes)
Legalise Cannabis = 3.05% (13,832 votes)
Family First = 2.58% (11,686 votes)
Animal Justice = 1.40% (6,346 votes)
Liberal Democrats = 1.24% (5,629 votes)
United Australia = 1.24% (5,617 votes)
Freedom = 1.09% (4,954 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1.05% (4,773 votes)
One Nation = 0.94% (4,259 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 0.77% (3,480 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 0.60% (2,722 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.44% (1,985 votes)
Health Australia = 0.36% (1,645 votes)
Companions and Pets = 0.35% (1,582 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 0.33% (1,490 votes)
New Democrats = 0.32% (1,470 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.26% (1,199 votes)
Ungrouped = 0.03% (121 votes)


Northern Victoria

Coalition (2 seats) = 35.03% (162,919 votes)
Labor (1 seat) = 28.83% (134,084 votes)
Greens = 6.97% (32,426 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 5.10% (23,717 votes)
Legalise Cannabis = 4.76% (22,124 votes)
One Nation (1 seat) = 3.73% (17,331 votes)
Liberal Democrats = 1.99% (9,269 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1.97% (9,155 votes)
Family First = 1.63% (7,602 votes)
Animal Justice (1 seat) = 1.56% (7,241 votes)
Labour DLP = 1.47% (6,846 votes)
Freedom = 1.07% (4,976 votes)
Health Australia = 1.04% (4,854 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 0.99% (4,585 votes)
Reason = 0.81% (3,762 votes)
United Australia = 0.78% (3,648 votes)
Companions and Pets = 0.62% (2,873 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.48% (2,236 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 0.41% (1,903 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 0.35% (1,608 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.29% (1,370 votes)
New Democrats = 0.12% (580 votes)


South Eastern Metro

Labor (2 seats) = 39.32% (184,825 votes)
Coalition (1 seat) = 26.75% (125,731 votes)
Greens = 6.72% (31,601 votes)
Legalise Cannabis (1 seat) = 5.26% (24,708 votes)
Liberal Democrats (1 seat) = 3.62% (16,996 votes)
Labour DLP = 3.28% (15,417 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1.99% (9,362 votes)
Family First = 1.92% (9,036 votes)
Freedom = 1.77% (8,338 votes)
One Nation = 1.77% (8,333 votes)
Animal Justice = 1.38% (6,496 votes)
United Australia = 1.18% (5,533 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 0.97% (4,564 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 0.87% (4,111 votes)
Health Australia = 0.74% (3,479 votes)
Companions and Pets = 0.52% (2,454 votes)
Reason = 0.45% (2,130 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 0.40% (1,897 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 0.32% (1,519 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.29% (1,377 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.29% (1,359 votes)
New Democrats = 0.13% (597 votes)
Ungrouped = 0.05% (234 votes)


Southern Metro

Coalition (2 seats) = 36.10% (169,770 votes)
Labor (2 seats) = 29.73% (139,820 votes)
Greens (1 seat) = 15.40% (72,446 votes)
Legalise Cannabis = 2.91% (13,692 votes)
Liberal Democrats = 2.49% (11,729 votes)
Labour DLP = 2.22% (10,427 votes)
Reason = 2.02% (9,515 votes)
Animal Justice = 1.42% (6,698 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 1.11% (5,204 votes)
Family First = 1.01% (4,729 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 0.81% (3,809 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 0.75% (3,549 votes)
One Nation = 0.65% (3,069 votes)
Freedom = 0.60% (2,817 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 0.53% (2,510 votes)
United Australia = 0.47% (2,191 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 0.42% (1,969 votes)
Health Australia = 0.41% (1,947 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.32% (1,486 votes)
Companions and Pets = 0.27% (1,266 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.20% (928 votes)
New Democrats = 0.15% (706 votes)


Western Metro

Labor (2 seats) = 37.01% (166,292 votes)
Coalition (2 seats) = 24.47% (109,954 votes)
Greens = 8.08% (36,298 votes)
Labour DLP = 5.20% (23,345 votes)
Legalise Cannabis (1 seat) = 4.29% (19,266 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 3.59% (16,107 votes)
Family First = 3.17% (14,264 votes)
One Nation = 1.71% (7,692 votes)
Liberal Democrats = 1.45% (6,530 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 1.42% (6,385 votes)
Animal Justice = 1.38% (6,212 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1.20% (5,384 votes)
United Australia = 1.06% (4,751 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 0.81% (3,652 votes)
Reason = 0.81% (3,637 votes)
Freedom = 0.78% (3,508 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.57% (2,561 votes)
New Democrats = 0.55% (2,482 votes)
Health Australia = 0.48% (2,179 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 0.46% (2,072 votes)
Group E = 0.41% (1,841 votes)
Companions and Pets = 0.40% (1,818 votes)
Group U = 0.37% (1,644 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.27% (1,217 votes)
Ungrouped = 0.04% (189 votes)


Western Victoria

Labor (2 seats) = 35.54% (175,098 votes)
Coalition (2 seats) = 27.05% (133,243 votes)
Greens (1 seat) = 8.68% (42,747 votes)
Legalise Cannabis = 5.03% (24,775 votes)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 3.75% (18,494 votes)
Liberal Democrats = 3.35% (16,484 votes)
One Nation = 2.66% (13,092 votes)
Labour DLP = 2.17% (10,705 votes)
Family First = 2.10% (10,344 votes)
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1.77% (8,702 votes)
Animal Justice = 1.76% (8,676 votes)
Sack Dan Andrews = 1.02% (5,025 votes)
Victorian Socialists = 0.75% (3,685 votes)
United Australia = 0.73% (3,596 votes)
Reason = 0.71% (3,493 votes)
Angry Victorians = 0.55% (2,705 votes)
Health Australia = 0.53% (2,628 votes)
Companions and Pets = 0.52% (2,544 votes)
Freedom = 0.47% (2,317 votes)
Sustainable Australia = 0.43% (2,098 votes)
Transport Matters = 0.30% (1,467 votes)
New Democrats = 0.11% (541 votes)
Ungrouped = 0.04% (178 votes)

[eddiesmith]

[David]

One of the biggest questions for me is whether Labor will reform Victoria’s corrupt and undemocratic upper house voting system in time for next election. They showed little interest in doing so during their last term, but it’s not clear they had the numbers in any case, and public dissatisfaction has been much louder this time around.

If they do decide to go down that path – and if the Coalition aren’t on board, which they really ought to be given it was a Coalition government that fixed the same situation in the senate – they may encounter some resistance. They’ll be able to count on the Greens and presumably the AJP (who have spoken out against preference-harvesting this time even though it was the only reason they got elected), but Legalise Cannabis are a bit of an unknown quantity – my understanding is they didn’t work with Druery this time around, but they’re clearly the kind of party that depends on preference-harvesting to get elected.

If Legalise Cannabis won’t play ball, it gets tricky: the Lib Dems and Shooters and Fishers worked with Druery this election and are presumably invested in keeping things the way they are, and it’s hard to imagine One Nation wanting to give Andrews a free kick. So, ironically, they might need Somyurek of all people to come to the rescue – and while that seems like an unlikely outcome, he has at least shown interest in the past in electoral reform when he spearheaded the shift to single-member districts in local council elections. Frankly, I don’t care who votes for it so long as it gets done.