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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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2018 result
PRIMARY
- Labor = 42.9% (55 seats)
- Coalition = 35.2% (27 seats)
- Greens = 10.7% (3 seats)
- Other = 11.2% (3 seats)
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 57.3%
- Coalition = 42.7%
Most recent polls
Resolve Strategic (October 28]
PRIMARY
- Labor = 38%
- Coalition = 31%
- Greens = 12%
- Other = 18%
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 59%
- Coalition = 41%
Newspoll (October 31-November 3)
PRIMARY
- Labor = 37%
- Coalition = 37%
- Greens = 13%
- Other = 13%
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 54%
- Coalition = 46%
Freshwater Strategy (November 3-6 2022)
PRIMARY
- Labor = 37%
- Coalition = 34%
- Greens = 14%
- Other = 15%
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 56%
- Coalition = 44%
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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| David wrote: | | Lastly: please vote below the line, and tell everyone you know to do the same! A 1 in the top line on the legislative council ballot is a decision to send your vote out into the wilderness. You could be voting for someone you like and end up contributing to the election of some random weirdo or even someone on the entirely opposite end of the political spectrum. All that stuff is figured out behind the scenes in arcane preference deals. It takes a little longer, sure, but at least numbering your own candidates ensures your own preferences matter. |
The voting system for the upper house is archaic.
Can't believe there hasn't been any reform in this area.
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Thanks for the great preview, Jezza! I hope you’re right about the crossbench representation – even better if Labor depends on their support, though that seems an unlikely outcome.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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I'll be very interested to see what happens in my seat, Bundoora. It's been a safe Labor seat and a slight boundary move shouldn't impact that, but there's a lot of people who were pissed off with lockdowns and are pissed off at the massive destruction work that is the North East link.
The demographics of the seat are all over the shop but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big swing to Libs and Greens
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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nomadjack
Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Location: Essendon
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| stui magpie wrote: | I'll be very interested to see what happens in my seat, Bundoora. It's been a safe Labor seat and a slight boundary move shouldn't impact that, but there's a lot of people who were pissed off with lockdowns and are pissed off at the massive destruction work that is the North East link.
The demographics of the seat are all over the shop but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big swing to Libs and Greens |
Wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it Stui. Local member (Colin Brooks) has been around for donkey's years and is still quite popular (actually a nice guy too). The TPP vote in the seat has also tracked almost identical to the state vote since 2010, so unless there is a massive swing on state-wide, I'd doubt you'll see anything significant across Bundoora. There's also no stand-out independent or Greens candidate. The Greens only pulled 8% last time, so you might see a little bit of growth there, but I'd be pretty surprised if Labor polled under low 60s for the TPP or if the seat got taken to preferences. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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I won't be holding my breath Nomad, part from liking to see Andrews out on his arse I have little invested in the outcome. The interest is more from an observation perspective, to see if the antipathy toward Andrews in the local community translates into a swing at the ballot box.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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Roy Morgan poll published yesterday said the following:
PRIMARY
- Labor = 40%
- Coalition = 29%
- Greens = 11.5%
- Other = 19.5%
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 57%
- Coalition = 43%
The Liberals have also decided to preference the Greens ahead of Labor, which increases the likelihood of minority government.
https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1591214435385094144
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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That preferencing decision is certainly unexpected (and cuts against nearly a decade's precedent in state and federal politics). Maybe they're trying to play the long game in the hopes that getting more Greens MPs up in lower house seats weakens Labor in the long run? Or, maybe just the hope that it'll make the next government more chaotic/unpopular, and help them get back in in 2026?
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| David wrote: | Not that I would want to sway you towards voting for Matthew Guy, but I think it's true that the Andrews government has been pretty good for renters and maybe less so for landlords, and that a Liberal state government will probably reverse that polarity. Personally, I'm all in favour of what Labor has done on that front, but I understand that people with property might feel differently.
In terms of animal welfare, I'm assuming you'd like to see the AJP returned and to be in an even stronger position of bargaining power in the upper house. I do suspect this is a position that Labor is more amenable to, and I think it's reasonable to worry that the Liberals might roll back some legislation (not sure what their actual policies on that front are, if any).
Edit: This slipped my mind, but going back to add it in: public transport! It's going to take ages to come to fruition, but I would love to see the suburban rail loop happen. Pretty likely that gets shelved forever if Guy gets in, whereas Andrews has committed to it and it seems to be beyond the thought-bubble stage now (with federal funding being directed last I checked).
If you care about tackling climate change – as we all should – the Greens should be high in your preference list. Perhaps there's less they can do at a state as opposed to federal level, but they're really the only party in any realistic position to be capable of exerting pressure on Labor if Andrews gets re-elected. And Labor do love to have it both ways on this issue. Personally, I would like to see Andrews get back in, but I very much don't want the legislative council to be a rubber stamp. I think one thing we might be able to agree on is that the best case scenario is that they have to negotiate with reasonable people (e.g. some of the Teal-adjacent independents) in both houses. So again, use your preferences! A vote for an indie in the lower house with a major party as your second (or third) preference is a much better use of your ballot than just giving Labor or Liberal your top vote.
One thing I'd tell right-leaning friends is go ahead and vote Liberal or Liberal Democrats or Shooters and Fishers or even one of the anti-vaxx groups if that's your persuasion, but for god's sake don't encourage the United Australia Party – they're the biggest bunch of phonies out there, and are blatantly only in it for Palmer and his cronies' (first Craig Kelly, now Geoff Shaw) back pockets. The same goes for the DLP and their new frontman Somyurek. These people are just opportunists and grifters who don't deserve to be taken seriously by anyone from any position on the political spectrum.
Lastly: please vote below the line, and tell everyone you know to do the same! A 1 in the top line on the legislative council ballot is a decision to send your vote out into the wilderness. You could be voting for someone you like and end up contributing to the election of some random weirdo or even someone on the entirely opposite end of the political spectrum. All that stuff is figured out behind the scenes in arcane preference deals. It takes a little longer, sure, but at least numbering your own candidates ensures your own preferences matter. |
cheers thankyou xx
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Voting done. Now I just have to figure out how to get Mum in for the early voting, it's too far for her to walk from anywhere nearby I can park, I may have to take the Mobility Scooter over in the ute. PITA but I suppose we could make a part day out of it.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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you have until Friday to put in for a postal vote.
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-17/calls-for-group-voting-ticket-reform-victoria/101663588
| Quote: | Mr Druery explains in one video that he charged $55,000 to minor parties for optimising their preferences in order to win seats in Victoria's upper house.
He said he helped set up the Sack Dan Andrews party to draw preference votes away from other parties.
"I could have called it the Pro Jet Trails Party, I could have called it the Port Arthur Conspiracy, I could have called it the Whacko Crazy Lunatics Party but I didn't," he said.
"If that gets a decent draw it's going to completely usurp Clive [Palmer's United Australia Party], One Nation and poor little Aidan [McLindon's Freedom Party]." |
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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A consolation goal for Guy, but Andrews still leads 4-1 in the IBAC investigations scoreboard 
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Last edited by Jezza on Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:10 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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| stui magpie wrote: | https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-17/calls-for-group-voting-ticket-reform-victoria/101663588
| Quote: | Mr Druery explains in one video that he charged $55,000 to minor parties for optimising their preferences in order to win seats in Victoria's upper house.
He said he helped set up the Sack Dan Andrews party to draw preference votes away from other parties.
"I could have called it the Pro Jet Trails Party, I could have called it the Port Arthur Conspiracy, I could have called it the Whacko Crazy Lunatics Party but I didn't," he said.
"If that gets a decent draw it's going to completely usurp Clive [Palmer's United Australia Party], One Nation and poor little Aidan [McLindon's Freedom Party]." |
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Vote below the line to avoid this.
Victoria's electoral system is archaic as I said earlier.
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