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Victorian State Election 2022

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:50 pm
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pietillidie wrote:
State politics creeps me out, but am I right in reading Andrews just won again? Ignoring the usual histrionics over him, is this a good thing policy wise?


Certainly much better than the dodgy & corrupt state Liberals getting back in, imho. Andrews has plenty of issues – I could spend all day listing them – but I feel we could be in worse hands. Just a pity he won with such a clear majority that there's no need to negotiate much with anyone over the next four years (and as Can-do Newman found up in Queensland, that can quickly turn into a real "give 'em enough rope" situation).

Anyway, hopefully this term's legislative council will put more of a squeeze on him accountability-wise. Still keeping my fingers crossed that we get a decent outcome there.

nomadjack wrote:
Patten's one of the most rational and reasonable members in the council and is well respected by most in parking. Barton is also quite open and reasonable and tends to treat most issues on their merit. Somyurek, on the other hand, is everything that is wrong with politics.


Well said. It's a crying shame if he gets in – less because of whatever it is he's actually standing for now policy-wise (DLP are pretty right-wing, but I don't know if he's done a full Mark Latham just yet), but first and foremost because of the principle of not wanting to reward the most cynical and careerist politicians who stand for nothing but their own pay cheques.

If he does get in, whatever he does from this point on will stand as a major indictment of Labor that they ever allowed a guy like that to wield such power in the party. He may be under a different party banner now, but he's their monster, ultimately.

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:06 pm
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watt price tully wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
^

Bet ya $50 he's gone in disgrace well before the next election.


You’ll need to define disgrace. Herald sun definition? sky news definition? The Australian definition?

Make the terms clear and then we can negotiate what the definition of disgrace means. Robodebt? 5 secret ministries?


Disgrace. Google it. He resigns from being premier and leaves politics immediately triggering a by election. Specific enough?

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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:22 pm
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pietillidie wrote:
State politics creeps me out, but am I right in reading Andrews just won again?

Andrews and his government have been re-elected by a majority for a 3rd term.

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:27 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
watt price tully wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
^

Bet ya $50 he's gone in disgrace well before the next election.


You’ll need to define disgrace. Herald sun definition? sky news definition? The Australian definition?

Make the terms clear and then we can negotiate what the definition of disgrace means. Robodebt? 5 secret ministries?


Disgrace. Google it. He resigns from being premier and leaves politics immediately triggering a by election. Specific enough?


You’ve avoided my question. He may resign and your mates in the Murdoch press will say it’s a disgrace whereas a rational analysis may suggest that other reasons are at play. It’s not as simple as you seem to think it is. I thought Scotty from Marketing was a disgrace well before the secret ministries but you if I recall correctly you thought the mounting examples of ministerial Culpability (unaccountability) were unremarkable.

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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:29 pm
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Lower House update.

Seats (81.1% counted)

Labor = 52
Coalition = 27
Greens = 4
Other = 0

Primary Vote: (81.1% counted)

Labor = 37.1% (-5.8]
Coalition = 34.7% (-0.5)
Greens = 11.3% (+0.6)
Other = 16.9% (+5.7)

Two Party Preferred: (81.1% counted)

Labor = 54.4% (-2.9)
Coalition = 45.6% (+2.9)

Seats gained and lost:

Labor gains Glen Waverley, Ripon and Hastings.
Labor lost Hawthorn, Richmond and Nepean.

Coalition gains Nepean, Shepparton, Morwell, Hawthorn and Mildura.
Coalition lost Glen Waverley, Ripon and Hastings.

Greens gain Richmond.
Greens have no losses.

Independents have no gains.
Independents lost Mildura, Morwell and Shepparton.

Seats in Doubt:

Bass = Labor 50.2 - 49.8 Coalition - (87.3% counted)
Northcote = Labor 50.7 - 49.3 Greens - (84.9% counted)
Pakenham = Coalition 50.0 - 50.0 Labor - (83.8% counted)
Preston = Labor 50.9 - 49.1 Independent - (81.1% counted)

Coalition leads in Pakenham by 6 votes.

Northcote has returned to the "in doubt" category despite the Greens conceding on Thursday.

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:29 pm
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Ducking, dodging, weaving, Laughing

Put your money where your mouth is. Wink Laughing

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:31 pm
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I’m off to bed; I’ll look at this another time. Big day (last day) of the ride and I hope to be up at 04:50 tomorrow 🤦‍♂️😱 and get outta Inverleigh really early.
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watt price tully Scorpio



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:33 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
Ducking, dodging, weaving, Laughing

Put your money where your mouth is. Wink Laughing


Just tell me what the steps say in Dan’s holiday house as a source of all things rational and unbiased 😉😜

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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:35 pm
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How the new Legislative Council (Upper House) may look if results don't change from now.

Labor = 15
Coalition = 13
Legalise Cannabis = 3
Greens = 2
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1
Liberal Democrats = 1
Animal Justice = 1
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 1
Transport Matters = 1
Labour DLP = 1
One Nation = 1

I'm simplifying this, but splitting it along the left-right paradigm, I see it as:
22 on the left (Labor 15, Legalise Cannabis 3, Greens 2, Animal Justice 1, Transport Matters 1); and
18 on the right (Coalition 13, Justice 1, Lib Dems 1, Shooters 1, Labour DLP 1, One Nation 1).

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 8:47 pm
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watt price tully wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
Ducking, dodging, weaving, Laughing

Put your money where your mouth is. Wink Laughing


Just tell me what the steps say in Dan’s holiday house as a source of all things rational and unbiased 😉😜


basic physics, crooked man falls down straight steps. Wink Laughing

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2022 11:14 pm
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Jezza wrote:
Coalition leads in Pakenham by 6 votes.

On latest figures this evening, the ALP is back to a 13 vote lead. I don't think there's much merit in saying anything at all about Pakenham until they finish counting and then have done a recount.
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:52 pm
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Jezza wrote:
How the new Legislative Council (Upper House) may look if results don't change from now.

Labor = 15
Coalition = 13
Legalise Cannabis = 3
Greens = 2
Derryn Hinch's Justice = 1
Liberal Democrats = 1
Animal Justice = 1
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers = 1
Transport Matters = 1
Labour DLP = 1
One Nation = 1

I'm simplifying this, but splitting it along the left-right paradigm, I see it as:
22 on the left (Labor 15, Legalise Cannabis 3, Greens 2, Animal Justice 1, Transport Matters 1); and
18 on the right (Coalition 13, Justice 1, Lib Dems 1, Shooters 1, Labour DLP 1, One Nation 1).


Apparently the Western Vic seat currently being assigned to Hinch Justice by the ABC calculator is something of a mirage due to a partial recheck – on the numbers they have no chance of winning that one and the last seat is between the Greens and Legalise Cannabis (with LC slightly ahead). Similar story for Transport Matters in NE Metro; Kevin Bonham reckons they won’t be able to survive enough exclusions to get past the Greens.

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watt price tully Scorpio



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:57 pm
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David Limbrick of so called LD lost SE in the LC is wonderful news. Another anti vaxxer posing as not. Marvellous result.
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David Libra

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:45 pm
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Apparently the results for Northcote and Preston (currently predicted Labor wins, but with close challenges by the Greens and an independent respectively) are due tomorrow, with most or all of the other close lower-house counts to be finalised by Thursday. I believe the LC results are due next week.
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David Libra

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2022 4:07 pm
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Labor have officially won Northcote by 184 votes.
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