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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | Update after counting today. Decided: ALP 52, Greens 4, LNP 26. In doubt: 3 likely ALP (Bass, Hastings and Preston), 1 likely LNP (Mornington), 1 on an actual knife-edge (Pakenham - Libs leading by 5 votes, 80.1% counted) and Narracan needs a fresh election.
So, it's looking like ALP 55 or 56, Greens 4, LNP 27 or 28 before the Narracan election. The LNP (or possibly a conservative independent) will win Narracan, so it looks likely that the Assembly will see the ALP with either the same majority as before the election or one additional seat, plus the presence of 4 Greens. It certainly appeatrs as if, despite everything, the progressive numbers in the Assembly will have increased by either 1 or 2 since the 2018 election. |
After further counting today, the ABC has called Hastings for the ALP and Mornington for the Libs, both as expected. So, the running tally is now-
Decided: ALP 53, Greens 4, LNP 27. In doubt: 2 likely ALP (Bass and Preston), 1 still on an actual knife-edge (Pakenham - Libs and ALP now on exactly the same number of votes, 81.5% counted) and Narracan needs a fresh election. |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| David wrote: | | Worst case scenario, on the other hand, is that Greens fall to Transport Matters in NE Metro and the DLP get over the line in Northern Metro, in which case Labor would have the slimmest of progressive majorities and be entirely dependent on all elected Legalise Cannabis members being sensible. |
Both of these outcomes increasing in likelihood over the past couple of days – Somyurek now seems to be the clear frontrunner over Patten in Northern Metro, and apparently some rectified counting errors have put the Greens and Rod Barton (Transport Matters) neck and neck in NE Metro. Legalise Cannabis also pulling ahead of the Greens in Western Vic.
If Barton pulls it off in NE Metro and the other current trends bear out, you're looking at an upper house of 15 Labor, 3 Legalise Cannabis, 2 Greens, 1 Animal Justice (21 "left") vs 15 Coalition, 1 Shooters & Fishers, 1 One Nation, 1 DLP, 1 Transport Matters (19 "right"). Worst consequence of that might well be that Andrews, if so inclined, may not have the numbers to pass group ticket voting reform (particularly if they don't want to alienate Rod Barton, who was a major GTV beneficiary in 2018 and worked with Glenn Druery again this time around – it's entirely possible they'd need his vote at times over the next four years as the most "moderate" crossbencher).
By the way, I did some further investigating into the Legalise Cannabis candidates up for election, and while two of them seem pretty standard progressives (Rachel Payne in SE Metro is a former sex worker who previously ran for Fiona Patten's party, and David Ettershank in Western Metro has worked for the community-oriented anti-developer Kensington Association for decades), Andrew Dowling in Western Victoria is one to keep an eye on – I had a look at his Twitter and he's spent much of the past twelve months pushing anti-trans stuff. He also describes himself as a centrist who detests "woke" politics, though also seems to have a bigger crush on Dan Andrews than most Labor people.  So there's already some potential for fracturing in the "left" vote should LC hold the balance of power (again, keeping in mind that, once elected, microparties tend to find it extremely difficult to hang on to their members and stop them from going off and pursuing their own tangents).
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| Somyurek beating Patten is a fantastic result 😂😂😂😂 |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Yeah, Nah. Somyurek is a cnut just like Andrews, I actually have some time for Patten.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| stui magpie wrote: | | Yeah, Nah. Somyurek is a cnut just unlike Andrews, I actually have some time for Patten. |
Nearly right, fixed it for you. I have a lot of time for Patten, a strong sensible woman.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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nomadjack
Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Location: Essendon
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| Patten's one of the most rational and reasonable members in the council and is well respected by most in parking. Barton is also quite open and reasonable and tends to treat most issues on their merit. Somyurek, on the other hand, is everything that is wrong with politics. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| watt price tully wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | | Yeah, Nah. Somyurek is a cnut just unlike Andrews, I actually have some time for Patten. |
Nearly right, fixed it for you. I have a lot of time for Patten, a strong sensible woman. |
Nah, I had it right the first time. Those 2 are cut from the same cloth.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| stui magpie wrote: | | Yeah, Nah. Somyurek is a cnut just like Andrews, I actually have some time for Patten. |
Nah, she talks a lot of shit but then just folds. Sure Somyurek’s a cnut like Dan but he might bring some entertainment. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Impressive victory by the thrice elected Premier of Victoria the Right Honourable Daniel Andrews. Currently on 43 seats with the ALP leading in four undecided seats. This is close to the so called Danslide of 2018.
The apoplexy of Murdoch Press is satisfying; they make Somurek seem half decent. Looks like the netball sponsorship was a winner (up yours Rinehart)
Now to stop logging of native trees in Vic would be massive let alone right (and way too late) I’m not holding my breath.
Congratulations to Daniel Andrews 👏👏👏😉
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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All Hail Dan.
We'll be able to generate energy for the new SEC with the sunshine from Dan's arse.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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You never know he might stand and win the 2026 election as well. That would make the thrice elected premier the four time consecutive elected premier of Victoria for 16 years. Imagine the fulminating reaction of the Murdoch press 😂😉
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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^
Bet ya $50 he's gone in disgrace well before the next election.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| stui magpie wrote: | ^
Bet ya $50 he's gone in disgrace well before the next election. |
You’ll need to define disgrace. Herald sun definition? sky news definition? The Australian definition?
Make the terms clear and then we can negotiate what the definition of disgrace means. Robodebt? 5 secret ministries?
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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State politics creeps me out, but am I right in reading Andrews just won again? Ignoring the usual histrionics over him, is this a good thing policy wise?
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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