How many wins do we need to make the top 4?

[RudeBoy]

I'm guessing 15, but there are a few of my fellow Nicksters who are better statisticians than me. Given our lousy percentage, I figure we'd need to be a clear game ahead of 5th.

[What'sinaname]

Yep, sounds about right, and that would mean having to win 7/9 or even 8/9 games to make top 4.

[David]

In previous years it’s been 15, 15 and percentage, 16 or even 16 and percentage. The latter seems to happen in seasons where there are several very weak teams, so I suspect the collective uselessness of North, West Coast and Essendon this year will push that necessary win/loss ratio up. I did a ladder predictor yesterday and don’t remember how many wins were necessary for top 4, but I actually had us missing the top 8 on 13 wins, which would be unprecedented. So if I had to take a guess I’d say we need 16.

[Born to Pie]

[Magpiefan3]

In 2018 we finished with 15 wins to finish 3rd on the ladder.

I say 15 or 16 wins to make top 4.

[Jezza]

Last 10 years of the team that finished 4th.

2021 = 15 wins (133.3%) - 60 points
2020 = N/A - Covid
2019 = 15 wins (117.7%) - 60 points
2018 = 15 wins (120.1%) - 60 points
2017 = 14 wins, 2 draws (114.8%) - 60 points
2016 = 16 wins (143.1%) - 64 points
2015 = 16 wins (127.1%) - 64 points
2014 = 16 wins (130.4%) - 64 points
2013 = 15.5 wins (132.5%) - 62 points
2012 = 16 wins (116.5%) - 64 points

In the era of an 18-team competition, you need a minimum of 60 points (i.e. 15 wins or equivalent) to be a top 4 chance.

Based on that trend, we can only afford to lose 1 or 2 games from now until the end of the H&A season.

[Collingwood 4 eternity]

16th straight win in a row will bring about the clubs 16th flag

Why not dare to dream

Four won Twelve to go

[RudeBoy]

Hopefully we can start building up our percentage with some big wins against a few of the bottom 8 teams. 15 wins alone will probably not be enough to snare a top 4 berth, without a healthy percentage. As our confidence grows, I can see us belting a few teams.

[Ronnie McKeowns boots]

Not gonna happen....I think we need to be cognisant that half our team are essentially kids without the preseasons in them to prepare for a long campaign, would be very surprised if we don't drop off to some level as the season goes on.....personally would be happy with a place in the 8, and more importantly no long term injuries that would affect next year at all

[Presti35]

The loss to WCE and Geelong will come back to bite us. Right in the clacker.

[Big T]

One week at a time... be a miracle on ice if we make the 8

[Harrysz]

Those that keep bemoaning the losses to Geelong and West Coast forget that we beat both Carlton and Hawthorn by 4 points. We could've lost those two games. These things generally even themselves out.

The optimism of some Nicksters is breath-taking. What do we need to do to make top 4? Folks, at present we're not even in the top 8. I've always regarded this year as being a team-building year; getting games and experience into young players. If we make the finals then that would be a nice bonus but I don't think it's McRae's focus at present.

[RudeBoy]

[Pies2016]

What the last month does demonstrate is why you don’t set out to tank for draft picks, especially before the season was even at the half way mark 🙄
I can absolutely guarantee the positives that come with exceeding expectations ( however that looks ) far outweighs pick 4 over pick nine ( ? ) any day.

[Return of the baldfacts]

St.Kilda and Sydney unexpectedly losing this round certainly helps our finals chances.