Coronavirus 5 - Last Blood

[Pies4shaw]

^ That's right - so, now, just 3 times as high as in any week of 2021.

[What'sinaname]

[think positive]

Um...maybe because those people won’t see tomorrow, because that what makes this pandemic DEADly. Once it turns into an endemic, then you start counting all the long covid sufferers, those with lung conditions and other problems who will NEVER recover.

I actually get why the cuffs are coming off, it’s preparation for winter, it’s preparation for the overload, to try and stop it happening. Hopefully the unclean see that because they will be the most at risk.

Setting people free now is not happening because it’s safe to do so, it’s a controlled experiment. And I’ll be wearing my mask and being a bit cautious! I have a husband that goes to various warehouse sites anda daughter who’s a teacher, I’m sure it will come to me in time, but I’m not in a hurry for it!

[stui magpie]

I agree with all that, except I'd probably say educated gamble rather than controlled experiment.

Relying on a combination of a less virulent virus, high vaccination levels and people being outdoors in summer, they had modelling predicting worst case scenarios of hospitalisations and deaths and when the actual numbers fell well short they have been able to wind back more restrictions.

As you say though, I fully expect some form of heightened restrictions come winter. I also expect to get a second booster.

Just for comparison with the numbers:

Up to 31/12/2021 (22 months) Australia had 395k recorded cases and 2239 deaths.

Since then, in less than 2 months, we've had 2.6 Million recorded cases (real number likely more than double) for 2700 deaths.

That is a lot of dead people but, in the eyes of the governments it seems, not an unacceptable price to pay for a largely open society and the benefits of having large segments of the population with boosted immunity from natural infection.

[#26]

Heard on the radio today

"Is, "did they have a pre existing condition? starting to sound like "what was she wearing?"

[David]

Looks like Victoria's about to hit its millionth case today.

[Pies4shaw]

^^^ Those projections were dodgy, weren't they? Or else they were never disclosing what they really expected. It's hard to know because, so far as I could identify, the NSW Government under Perottet modeled both hospitalisations and deaths but only released the information about hospitalisation modelling publcly.

The original stain of COVID, in a wholly-unvaccinated population, had an infection mortality rate of about 1 in 400. If everyone in Australia had got it, at once, without any medical protections, it would have been reasonable to expect no more than about 65,000 deaths in the entire population.

If Omicron had been as deadly as the original COVID strains, we might have expected no more than 6,500 deaths from 2.6 Million entirely unvaccinated cases. Since Omicron was allegedly "less dangerous" and 95% of Australians (and nearly all of those in the higher risk groups) were vaccinated and hence only 10% as likely to have serious illness, that should have translated into well under 1,000 deaths by the start of 2022.

Indeed, in June 2021, the Doherty Institute model, used by the Commonwealth Government to develop its "pathway out of the pandemic", predicted that opening up at 80% fully-vaccinated (ie, then "double dosed") would mean that we could expect 750 deaths Australia-wide. Somehow, we're beyond 4 times that (without, of course, seeing any consequences in WA because there has been no opening up there) - yet, with a supposedly "less dangerous" version of the virus.

This looks like an application of the old public service trick of starting with a stupidly bad scenario, then claiming "victory" when things didn't go as well as they should have - but didn't go as bad as the "worst case".

[stui magpie]

Obviously I haven't seen the modelling either so I can only draw assumptions based on every state except WA basically following the same roadmap.

Either the number of deaths has been within acceptable tolerances or they are way higher but the horse had bolted so it's cross fingers and hope they follow hospitalisations and go down, which they are. If it was the second case however, why would they be reducing restrictions?

The other factor is it's only 2.5 Million reported cases. With all the changes to testing requirements the real number of cases is likely to be an order of magnitude higher. Millions of people who weren't required to get tested and had zero or little symptoms never got tested.

We may get an indication of which it was come winter. If the deaths have been higher than expected we will likely looking at more restrictions early as a preventative.

[Pies4shaw]

But we do know that, whatever the Omicron modelling showed, the 80% plan adopted in June 2021 was based on a forecast of just 750 deaths in the ensuing 6 months, whereas the actual number (starting from 16 October 2021) is more than 3,400 - and we're only 4 months in to that 6.

[stui magpie]

Yes, but that was based on Delta. We didn't have Omicron in June 2021.

Data at the time showed that Vaccination provided a high level of protection against catching Delta so assumed that case numbers would not explode.

Vaccines proved to be almost useless against protecting from infection from
Omicron although they did/do provide very good protection against serious illness. Omicron was able to spread like wildfire because fully vaccinated people were able to catch it and pass it on to both vaccinated and unvaccinated often without even knowing they'd had it.

So modelling based on Delta doesn't apply to Omicron.

NSW at least released some case and hospitalisation modelling for Omicron, I don't believe Victoria has released anything.

[eddiesmith]

So have the doomsayers said what they'd be doing differently? Do you want schools closed? Never ending lockdowns? Masks outdoors? Or just want to complain about people enjoying life but not actually calling for a return to lockdown so nothing would change in your ideal world?

[Pies4shaw]

I think the answer you're fishing for is "No, just let people die by the thousands and no-one give a damn."

[eddiesmith]

So yet again you've got nothing? You want to focus on deaths and complain non stop yet have nothing the government could be doing to improve it.

Carry on...

[think positive]

[Pies4shaw]

A brief update on government responses.

WA opening up from 3 March 2022:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-18/mark-mcgowan-announces-wa-border-update/100843126

Victorian mask rules further eased from the end of the week: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-22/covid-mask-rules-to-be-eased-in-victoria/100850046

Summary from the ABC blog: