Coronavirus 5 - Last Blood

[David]

[What'sinaname]

[Pies4shaw]

So, they estimated 2.2 million deaths in the US "In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour" and you think that somehow means they were "off"?

Where do you source the alt-Nazi US propaganda? I can't imagine you write it yourself.

[What'sinaname]

[David]

What'sinaname, your apparent determination to see everything through a partisan lens has led you to totally misinterpret my post. I have no interest in pushing some Trump vs Biden or Trump vs "the scientists" gotcha exercise; I was merely using that quote as an illustration of how much some people underestimated what the eventual US COVID-19 death toll would be. I wish we could be laughing at the doomsayers in hindsight instead, but it didn't quite turn out that way, did it?

The Imperial College figure may well still have been a significant overestimate – and I expect it was on the extreme end of predictions at the time – but as P4S points out, it was measuring the counterfactual of what would happen without restrictions (which is an example of the context I was asking for in the post above). I wouldn't even try to hazard a guess at how many more Americans would have died without lockdowns, social distancing, contact tracing, masks, travel restrictions and vaccines, regardless of how piecemeal and inconsistently deployed those policies have been at different times and in different parts of the country. Maybe they would have hit the 2 million deaths mark a year and a half ago; maybe they wouldn't be too much worse off than they are now. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's impossible to know.

In any case, as there's no sign of a decline in the death rate over there and god knows how many other variants on the way, it may well be that the final US COVID-19 death toll ends up being a great deal closer to that 2.2 million prediction than it is now. If so, that would suggest that, if anything, even the doomsayers – that is, the most pessimistic of the pessimists in the early months of 2020 – may have been underestimating just how deadly this virus could be.

[Pies4shaw]

Just a little update on how Australia is dealing with Omicron.

The rolling averages of weekly deaths since the start of January (listed newest to oldest) are listed below. I have highlighted in bold the running 7-day totals that are at least twice as high as the highest running 7-day total recorded at any time in 2021. For comparison, that was 107, reached just once - on 23 October 2021.

The figures show that Australia has - every day for more than 5 weeks (38 days and counting), now, recorded a rolling number of weekly deaths that is at least twice as high as anything Australia recorded in any week during 2021.

332 (part progressive 7-day total of deaths for the 7-day period ending on 19v February 2022, as at the time of this post on 19 February 2022)
356
367
366
366
371
392
390
406
442
462
468
489
485
525
537
587
574
610
604
613
568
547
506
489
449
456
435
430
411
374
376
360
309
301
288
259
221
176
145
123
108
92
80
75
79
69
69
69
65 (1 January - 7 day-total of deaths for the 7-day period ending on this day)

[think positive]

[think positive]

And bloody hell that death table....scary

[Pies4shaw]

^ Just remember, TP: "Delta bad, Omicron good". The pandemic finished last October - the virus just hasn't read the memo.

[stui magpie]

Australian Governments keep opening up further, restrictions are reducing, hospitalisations continue to decline which means deaths will follow in declining.

The vast majority of people are getting on with their lives after 2 years of restrictions and lockdowns which ruined more lives than the virus has.

Yes people have died and will continue to. Yes it's tragic for their family, yes for the rest of us they're anonymous statistics.

maybe no deaths are "acceptable" but what is the legitimate alternative? Remain in lockdown and hope the virus goes away? Clearly the Governments consider the number of deaths to be not unacceptable as they're less than predicted and the benefit has been that vast numbers of people now have the combined immunity from vaccination and recovering from Covid which will help minimse deaths when the next wave hits in winter.

We're lucky that we had the perfect mix of variables happening. Omicron being more infectious but far less deadly, hitting here in summer when the population is also at peak vaccination. I doubt that the dead people's families would agree that we're lucky, but overall we are.

[What'sinaname]

[Pies4shaw]

The thing that's actually disturbing is that you so plainly have never thought that the number of people dying in Australia from the "harmless virus" is disturbing.

Remember Pollyanna posting this in December 2021:

[think positive]

[Dave The Man]

With Nurses having Enough and Demanding more Nurses and Support from the Goverment.

IF they Don't could they go on Strike which might set off a Lockdown as be no one to look after the Sick?

[stui magpie]