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#26 
#26
Joined: 15 Jan 2022
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| ^According to wiki only 17% of the Ukrainian population is Russian. |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^Cheers, both. We know that's a large enough population to destabilise things, hence 2014 and Minsk 2. I naturally doubt the chest beating and assume it's just another blackmail tantrum, but maybe we've missed something or the petrothug is seriously worrying about revenues and internal Russian politics is facing a major shift, or whatever. Then there is the matter of the Democrats and Boris Johnson needing to win a few news cycles without knowing what they're dabbling in.
Whatever the case, escalation is its own risk and opens the doors to unfortunate events, so we all ought to know more. But it's virtually impossible to gain any sense of reality on this given the layers of propaganda.
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| #26 wrote: | | ^According to wiki only 17% of the Ukrainian population is Russian. |
That's in terms of ethnicity, mind you. When it comes to native Russian speakers, the figure rises to 29.6% – and this is a group that has been under specific pressure in the country since 2014, as nationalists have pushed for Ukrainian to be spoken exclusively throughout the country and suppressed the learning and speaking of Russian. So you can well imagine some Russian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians might be inclined to favour closer Russian ties and feel alienated by the pro-Western turn.
Of course, none of this is monolithic: my partner, for instance, grew up in the Russian-speaking part of the country and is very anti-Putin, and I suspect there are many more from cities like Kharkov who, whatever their feelings towards Zelenskyy, may well be wishing Putin would piss off and let them sort out these affairs on their own. Certainly, the last thing most people want is more conflict.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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^Here's something I've often wondered. How strong is Slavic identity and how does this play out in the politics of the region today? I think I read somewhere that Ukraine is ground zero for Slavic peoples genetically, but I might be misremembering. Perhaps Putin also has his racial knickers in a twist, a bit like like Japan denying its Korean ancestry, Korea denying its Chinese ancestry, and China denying its Indian ancestry.
On a related note how, how influential is Eastern Christianity (Eastern Orthodox and/or Eastern Catholicism) as part of that identity, and has its hold changed since the Yugoslav Wars in the 90s?
In 300 words or less, of course!
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Yes, Kiev is the birthplace of Russia (the country was known as Kievan Rus in its infancy), so I think the country does hold a lot of symbolic weight. As Lola characterises it, Russia and eastern Ukrainians traditionally saw the two countries as close kin (and of course, for those in the east who grew up in the Soviet Union, there was little distinct identity at all). Both countries are primarily Orthodox, though there was an acrimonious split between the two churches after 2014 – unsurprising, given how politicised the Russian Orthodox Church has become and the leadership’s close relationship with the Russian government (think the relationship between Reagan and US evangelical churches in the 1980s on steroids). That aside, I don’t think religion per se plays a big role in this conflict – which is very different from Yugoslavia, where Orthodox Christianity, Catholicism and Islam were all at the centre of cultural/national divisions.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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#26
#26
Joined: 15 Jan 2022
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^ Reminds me of Andrey Zvyagintsev's film Leviathan. That's all about a little guy getting crushed by the church and the state in Russia
When I heard Putin went over to China a few weeks ago, to meet with Xi Jinping, I wondered if they were going to coordinate launching their attacks on the Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time. 😳 |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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| David wrote: | | Yes, Kiev is the birthplace of Russia (the country was known as Kievan Rus in its infancy), so I think the country does hold a lot of symbolic weight. As Lola characterises it, Russia and eastern Ukrainians traditionally saw the two countries as close kin (and of course, for those in the east who grew up in the Soviet Union, there was little distinct identity at all). Both countries are primarily Orthodox, though there was an acrimonious split between the two churches after 2014 – unsurprising, given how politicised the Russian Orthodox Church has become and the leadership’s close relationship with the Russian government (think the relationship between Reagan and US evangelical churches in the 1980s on steroids). That aside, I don’t think religion per se plays a big role in this conflict – which is very different from Yugoslavia, where Orthodox Christianity, Catholicism and Islam were all at the centre of cultural/national divisions. |
Incredibly interesting region and one of the mysteries of life that still entices me. I reckon Kiev - Moscow - St. Petersburg would make for a good beginner's excursion. Damned Covid and Putin! And thinking back, I ought to have done the Korea - Vladivostok ferry when I had the chance. Grr.
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Listening to the radio on the drive home seems like things are escalating
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Good article, this seems the most sensible take on what's going on to me.
| Quote: | “NATO has no desire to invade Russia, NATO is not threatening Russia. It’s the other way around.”
Klain points out that Russia’s war against Ukraine in the east of the country began only after its pro-Kremlin president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in 2014 by a pro-Western pro-democratic “Revolution of Dignity”.
“[Putin] started all of this when Ukrainians declared quite loudly that they saw a path to prosperity by becoming Western and democratic and no longer being so firmly in Moscow’s orbit. That’s at the core of what this is about.” |
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/vlad-the-invader-what-putin-gets-from-his-threats-of-war-20220203-p59tgk.html
It's all about holding onto power at home
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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its fricken terrifying. cant blame the ukraine for wanting seperation and democracy
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| stui magpie wrote: | Good article, this seems the most sensible take on what's going on to me.
| Quote: | “NATO has no desire to invade Russia, NATO is not threatening Russia. It’s the other way around.”
Klain points out that Russia’s war against Ukraine in the east of the country began only after its pro-Kremlin president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in 2014 by a pro-Western pro-democratic “Revolution of Dignity”.
“[Putin] started all of this when Ukrainians declared quite loudly that they saw a path to prosperity by becoming Western and democratic and no longer being so firmly in Moscow’s orbit. That’s at the core of what this is about.” |
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/vlad-the-invader-what-putin-gets-from-his-threats-of-war-20220203-p59tgk.html
It's all about holding onto power at home |
Not saying it should be dismissed out of hand, but I think an article like this is a good example of propaganda masquerading as journalism – the first two lengthy bits of analysis quoted are from think tanks that are closely tied to the US defence industry: the Atlantic Council and Institute for the Study of War (the latter of which was a big advocate of the Iraq War "surge" strategy). Both of these are by their nature going to be on the frontline of Team NATO. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Studies expert Pavlyshyn was previously the chair of the local Maidan Committee – which, I should stress, is an entirely legitimate cause, but does put him squarely in the pro-Ukrainian, anti-Russian camp.
That leaves only University of Melbourne academic Michael Wesley as, to my knowledge, a non-aligned expert on the region without an axe to grind. What's missing here is anyone advocating for or even neutrally presenting the Russian viewpoint, which is that, contra Klain, they are in fact threatened by the prospect of a belligerent rival superpower's military hardware – yes, up to and including nuclear warheads – being installed on their doorstep, as any country would be, and indeed as America was (as everybody at the time understood perfectly well) during the Cuban Missile Crisis. But you don't hear that perspective in articles like this, even though we're hearing the self-interested American position twice over. Couldn't they find anyone? Or would inserting even a token quote from, say, someone from the Russian embassy interfere with the picture the newspaper is trying to paint of this situation?
Perhaps there's no totally unbiased or reliable take on this conflict out there, and you're certainly not going to find it in RT or Sputnik News. But I think it's good to be able to read mainstream media coverage closely and notice when we're only getting one side of the picture, particularly from supposedly neutral outlets like The Age and the ABC.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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#26
#26
Joined: 15 Jan 2022
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| The media love a big war. They boost the ratings. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | you don't hear that perspective in articles like this, even though we're hearing the self-interested American position twice over. Couldn't they find anyone? Or would inserting even a token quote from, say, someone from the Russian embassy interfere with the picture the newspaper is trying to paint of this situation?
Perhaps there's no totally unbiased or reliable take on this conflict out there, and you're certainly not going to find it in RT or Sputnik News. But I think it's good to be able to read mainstream media coverage closely and notice when we're only getting one side of the picture, particularly from supposedly neutral outlets like The Age and the ABC. |
I get where you're coming from but I'm not sure where you're going to get an objective piece from Russia's viewpoint. Keep in mind, Putin is a Dictator in everything but name. Most of the articles I've read have been trying to pick into his head.
Wanting to annex the Ukraine to stop them joining NATO didn't sit well with me. I'd accept completely that the west would see it as advantageous to have the Ukraine as a Western Democracy and that Putin wouldn't want that, which is why the premise in that article does seem plausible, at least to me.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I don't disagree with that, although it's worth mentioning that Ukraine has always been a democracy since becoming independent in 1991 – just one whose governments have periodically flipped between more pro-Russian and pro-Western outlooks. I only say that as I think we should be wary of conflating democracy (i.e. something we all think is a good thing) with Western alignment (something a bit more complicated). Saudi Arabia is Western-aligned, for instance, but their citizens are in no way freer or better treated than those of Russian-aligned Iran.
Part of what I think the US wants is for Ukraine to serve as part of a containment strategy – basically, a client state in the region that can serve as a bulwark against any Russian soft-power expansion. It saddens me to say this as obviously I feel no small allegiance towards Ukraine and support for its freedom to pursue its own destiny, but I just don't think America has the country's back at all; rather, I get the impression that Ukraine is the playground in a proxy struggle between superpowers, and that its people are going to be the ones who suffer the consequences, whatever transpires.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if you're right on that.
I've also seen a few articles comparing the situation in the Ukraine with Taiwan and suggesting Putin and Xi are swapping notes.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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