Australian federal election 2022

[think positive]

Yeah sorry I read it wrong it was late!

Yes I rented a couple of places when I left home so I’ve seen both sides. I think some people are just pigs! When looking for my eldest house even some if the owner occupied were a mess! And they want a good price! Crazy! I unfortunately have a guilty conscience a mile wide, so I was a very conscientious landlord!

Your right about agents. The 2nd last one, geezus, the managing director asked why I moved, I showed him pictures and texts on my phone as the departing tenant had a crack at me and mentioned the manager. She said the place got broken into through the sliding door. The door wasn’t damaged and we proved in front ofthe agent and a cop that the door could not be lifted off the track, as the old type can. She simply went away for the weekend and left the door unlocked. I showed the MD the texts and said you might want to remind her landlords pays her wage, did us a favour, spent a couple of days cleaning it up and the new manager got us an extra $40 a week! Great tenant. Til covid! The next was ok once I said pay fortnightly. We gave her plenty of time to find something before we put it on the market. Same agent sold the house and our old house, just so professional, I’d recommend them to anyone. They also give me medallion club tickets for Collingwood games!

Carlton men!

[think positive]

Who ever gets in should change the date. It’s time.

And just take that statue down!

Happy day off, now let’s go for an inclusion day.

Well done to Mr Alcott, very deserved.

[David]

Polling looking pretty grim for the government:

https://theconversation.com/newspoll-has-labors-biggest-lead-since-turnbulls-ousting-as-coalition-damaged-by-covid-175835

[doriswilgus]

It looks like Morrison’s goose is cooked this time.Yes,I know people will say that the polls were wrong last time and he pulled off a miracle win.But in reality the government’s position is about three times worse now than it was at the same time back in 2019.I don’t think even Murdoch or Clive Palmer’s millions can save Morrison this time.

[#26]

^ If the US drags us into a huge war he might be OK. Incumbents usually do well in elections during times of war.

[stui magpie]

Polls tap into the overall sentiment across a random small group of people.

Elections are generally won or lost with small numbers of people in key seats so polls are unreliable predictors.

Albanese is even less electable than Shorten, so the election will come down to whether enough people in the right places who voted Lib/Nat last time have been pissed off enough by Morrison to change sides.

Having said that, the independents and their preferences will be a big factor as people abandon major parties in droves as will be Palmer.

[eddiesmith]

I can see a minority Labor government being the most likely outcome.

[#26]

[David]

[Jezza]

I suspect the path to victory for Labor will come from Western Australia, specifically in the seats of Swan, Hasluck and Pearce. With the borders being closed, campaigning will be hard for Morrison and co in WA.

The inner-city seats concerned with climate change will be another point of interest, which include the following seats.
- Warringah
- Wentworth
- Boothby
- Higgins
- Brisbane
- Kooyong
- Ryan
- Goldstein
- North Sydney

I was reading in the paper on the weekend that the Greens are targeting the seats of Higgins and Ryan, on top of consolidating Melbourne.

The Libs have to win all those inner-city seats + Warringah which they lost to Zali Steggall to have any chance of winning re-election.

I think the Libs are going to lose this time round, or at the very least lose majority government. They had their 1993 moment in the last election, but the "miracle" won't be repeated again.

[David]

Thanks for the seat breakdown, Jezza – I hadn't considered that WA could be a major battleground, but it will be interesting to see if the ALP's domination at the last state election carries over in the federal vote. Otherwise, I just read something today suggesting that the Libs are in disarray over the Warringah preselection, so I suspect Steggall won't have too many problems there.

I expect the Greens to hold Melbourne easily, but I really wonder if they have any chance in other seats. I still remember when they looked on the cusp of taking Batman (now Cooper) and Melbourne Ports (now McNamara) in 2016 after narrowly missing out, but they've since dropped off steeply in each seat (probably helped by Labor replacing controversial, right-leaning incumbents in David Feeney and Michael Danby). If they can't compete in those inner-city seats (along with Wills, where their apparent status as contenders has never paid off), then I don't see them managing it in suburban Liberal Party heartland, small-l or otherwise.

In Higgins and Ryan specifically, 2019 results suggest they have a chance of passing Labor and finishing second, but in both cases the Liberal candidate is well ahead on primary vote and it wasn't actually that close on 2PP. So I honestly wouldn't be holding out any hope on either (or losing sleep, as the case may be!). The biggest problem for the Greens is that any landslide to Labor is almost certainly going to entail an increased Labor primary vote at their expense. To put it bluntly, a lot of people either don't know how preferential voting works or don't care; they see a vote for the Greens as a protest option that they can wield to send a message to Labor when times are good, but not as any kind of "serious" choice or something they'd be willing to do to actually risk who gets into government. Of course, in our system there is no such risk, but I'm not sure how many Labor/Greens swing voters actually understand that.

One thing the Greens might achieve this election is a record number of senators. They've never had more than ten (which they achieved in 2013–2016), and currently sit on nine with only three of those up for re-election in Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia. If they can hold those three – as they're expected to – and pick up at least one in South Australia, Queensland or New South Wales, they'll be back into double figures and could end up with as many as twelve.

[stui magpie]

I read this interesting factoid..

Morrison is the first prime minister to have survived as leader for a full term on either side of politics since John Howard.

How freaking unstable has it been for how long?

[David]

Well, so far …

But if he does make it until May (and I honestly think he probably will), it'll be the first term of government without a leadership spill since 2001–2004 – Howard survived a challenge from Costello in his last term in office. As Albanese has also served a full term, it'll also be the first time there hasn't been a successful mid-term leadership spill for either government or opposition since 1998–2001.

There's a good reason why: both the ALP and Liberal Party changed their rules after 2013 and 2018 respectively to make it a lot harder to remove sitting leaders, particularly sitting PMs. I suspect Morrison would have seen a challenge by now if it hadn't been for that.

[stui magpie]

But the Australian people aren't used to PM's lasting a full term anymore.

[David]

Neither are politicians, I suspect! I'm guessing many Liberal Party MPs are currently shifting around restlessly, thinking, "isn't there something we're supposed to be doing about now?"