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inxs88
Joined: 17 Aug 2014
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| Post subject: Risk Reward Recruiting Required |  |
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As we embark on Trade Week and the National Draft, it makes for interesting reading the wide range of opinions. Some think we have more cash to splash than Pablo Escobar after a personal best week and others fret over a 12 month contract to a delisted free agent. Graham Wright has always excelled during this part of the year and you get the sense that he is doing as such with the Magpies currently. Why?
1. No media leaks: coming out of the club like 2018-2020
2. No delistings yet: this should not be underestimated. You never know one club's trash is another's treasure (eg. Nick Hind, Mitch Hannan, Sam Frost, Taylor Duryea, Jasper Pittard, Nick Newman all got 2nd chances: (trade picks to trading club) yet were 50:50 to be delisted. Hence Wright is ensuring that Cox, Sier, Madgen, Thomas and Lynch are in the "shop window" as long as possible before we are left with the choice of delisting or retaining.
3. Target Recruiting for positional needs: with Lipinski and Kreuger rumoured to be heading our way, they fill distinct gaps we have on the list and won't dry up the currency we have.
Hopefully we continue the low risk/potential high return with:
* Tyson Stengle: delisted free agent with a 1 year deal plus an option for a second with strict behavioural clauses.
* Sam Skinner: dominant year in SANFL at CHB and additionally a delisted free agent whose could be useful backup to a likely injured Darcy Moore or ageing Jordan Roughead.
* Charlie Constable: slow but a 191cm big bodied midfielder whose commitment to football annihilates Sier's. Additionally he supplements the forever injured Adams and shields our emerging youth of Macrae, McInnes, Bianco and N Daicos from getting beaten up in the next 40 matches. Could be a Jarrod Lyons addition and essentially come for minimal cost given his Player Agent was on the radio this morning begging clubs to consider him.
With the hopeful additions of Nick Daicos and Youseph Dib plus above, we can ensure the protection of all of our 2022 selections.
Thoughts?
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I love the Pies, hate Carlscum |
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Macattacks 
Joined: 12 Sep 2021
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I know the philosophy of a rebuild is you go back to the draft and develop 1st rounders, it worked when we got Pendles and Daisy, and Reid and N Brown, it's the most foolproof way of building a window
But this list has been compromised in the 22 to 24 year range by constantly trying to top up for that elusive flag until we suddenly fell off a cliff
Now we have to deal with the cliff and there's only two ways I can see
1: You keep going back to the draft and snag a couple of FA's to top you off when the kids have matured
2: You give up draft picks to fill that 22 to 24 year range with quality
I don't think the first is an option because if we are waiting on N Daicos Henry Macrea McInnes Poulter Bianco etc to mature then Grundy Adams Crisp Moore De Goey Maynard are all long past their best.
Option 2 is riskier and will take some skill at the trade table but it gets you back in the game while our stars are in their prime
Luckily we have a glut of potential quality under 22 with the best kid in the draft coming so I think that makes option 2 a little easier, a lot of the going back to the draft part of the equation has been done to a certain extent
But we can't park Moore Grundy De Goey and co until all the kids mature or we risk missing the window
24
Noble
Wilson
Johnson
23
C Brown
22
J Daicos
Under 22's:
21
Quaynor
T Brown
Murphy
Keane
20
McCreery
Rantall
Bianco
Kelly
19
Macrea
Ruscoe
Chugg
Henry
McMahon
Poulter
18
McInnes
Ginnivan
Begg
N Daicos
Dib
Faye
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Moore De Goey |
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inxs88
Joined: 17 Aug 2014
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| Macattacks wrote: | I know the philosophy of a rebuild is you go back to the draft and develop 1st rounders, it worked when we got Pendles and Daisy, and Reid and N Brown, it's the most foolproof way of building a window
But this list has been compromised in the 22 to 24 year range by constantly trying to top up for that elusive flag until we suddenly fell off a cliff
Now we have to deal with the cliff and there's only two ways I can see
1: You keep going back to the draft and snag a couple of FA's to top you off when the kids have matured
2: You give up draft picks to fill that 22 to 24 year range with quality
I don't think the first is an option because if we are waiting on N Daicos Henry Macrea McInnes Poulter Bianco etc to mature then Grundy Adams Crisp Moore De Goey Maynard are all long past their best.
Option 2 is riskier and will take some skill at the trade table but it gets you back in the game while our stars are in their prime
Luckily we have a glut of potential quality under 22 with the best kid in the draft coming so I think that makes option 2 a little easier, a lot of the going back to the draft part of the equation has been done to a certain extent
But we can't park Moore Grundy De Goey and co until all the kids mature or we risk missing the window
24
Noble
Wilson
Johnson
23
C Brown
22
J Daicos
Under 22's:
21
Quaynor
T Brown
Murphy
Keane
20
McCreery
Rantall
Bianco
Kelly
19
Macrea
Ruscoe
Chugg
Henry
McMahon
Poulter
18
McInnes
Ginnivan
Begg
N Daicos
Dib
Faye |
Great post. It's why Lipinski (23 years old), Kreuger (22 years), Stengle (23 soon) and Constable (22 years old) make sense too. Not world beaters but have passed that awkward 3-5 year development and are seeking genuine opportunity.
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I love the Pies, hate Carlscum |
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skaman 
One step beyond.......
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Townsville via Melbourne
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This is why i keep coming back to Nicks!… the above posts. Well done guys 👍
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Enjoy yourself. Its later than you think! |
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jackcass 
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo
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1. The leaks largely stopped after Pert left mid 2017; &
2. Not sure Stengle has changed his off-field ways; &
3. I'm not fussed about the age profile gaps.
Melbourne currently (clearly the benchmark):
24
Fritsch
Weiderman
Oliver
23
Baker
22
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Under 22's
Spargo, Chandler, Nietschke, Bedford, Bradke, Sparrow, Jordon, Pickett, Rivers, Jackson, Laurie, Rosman, D Smith, Bowey, Declase, Turner. |
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Macattacks
Joined: 12 Sep 2021
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| jackcass wrote: | 1. The leaks largely stopped after Pert left mid 2017; &
2. Not sure Stengle has changed his off-field ways; &
3. I'm not fussed about the age profile gaps.
Melbourne currently (clearly the benchmark):
24
Fritsch
Weiderman
Oliver
23
Baker
22
Under 22's
Spargo, Chandler, Nietschke, Bedford, Bradke, Sparrow, Jordon, Pickett, Rivers, Jackson, Laurie, Rosman, D Smith, Bowey, Declase, Turner. |
6 players 25 Petracca Salem Brayshaw Langdon Neal-Bullen Harmes in the GF team
And only one player over 30 (Hibberd 31) then the rest are 29 and under compared to Pendlebury 33 Mayne* 32 Howe 31 Roughead 31 Sidebottom 30 Cox 30
Their stars in the 24 to 26 year range don't have to worry about a hole, they have their flag and our stars are staring at a long rebuild
And they don't have any critical vets about to drop off the map like we do, we have to replace generational stars, theirs are winning flags, they aren't facing our dilemma
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Moore De Goey |
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MJ23
Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Location: Sydney
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| Macattacks wrote: | | jackcass wrote: | 1. The leaks largely stopped after Pert left mid 2017; &
2. Not sure Stengle has changed his off-field ways; &
3. I'm not fussed about the age profile gaps.
Melbourne currently (clearly the benchmark):
24
Fritsch
Weiderman
Oliver
23
Baker
22
Under 22's
Spargo, Chandler, Nietschke, Bedford, Bradke, Sparrow, Jordon, Pickett, Rivers, Jackson, Laurie, Rosman, D Smith, Bowey, Declase, Turner. |
6 players 25 Petracca Salem Brayshaw Langdon Neal-Bullen Harmes in the GF team
And only one player over 30 (Hibberd 31) then the rest are 29 and under compared to Pendlebury 33 Mayne* 32 Howe 31 Roughead 31 Sidebottom 30 Cox 30
Their stars in the 24 to 26 year range don't have to worry about a hole, they have their flag and ours are staring at a long rebuild
And they hardly have any vets about to drop off the map compared to us, they aren't facing our dilemma |
 yeah but we are hardly challenging for a flag now. Dees had those older players, they were pushed out the last few years. Jones being one of them.
Mayne is gone and so will cox.
Ideally the kids we have brought in the last 2 years plus Daicos this year will push the older players out over this year and next - thats what happened in 2010.
Obree, Fraser, Medhurst, Lockyer were all in the team at the start of the year and didn't make the GF.
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"Even when Im old and gray, I wont be able to play but Ill still love the game"
Michael Jordan |
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jackcass
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo
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| MJ23 wrote: | yeah but we are hardly challenging for a flag now. Dees had those older players, they were pushed out the last few years. Jones being one of them.
Mayne is gone and so will cox.
Ideally the kids we have brought in the last 2 years plus Daicos this year will push the older players out over this year and next - thats what happened in 2010.
Obree, Fraser, Medhurst, Lockyer were all in the team at the start of the year and didn't make the GF. |
Exactly. Every team ebbs and flows. Be great if we can be competitive 2022 but unlikely we'll push for a flag. Even 2023 is unlikely. Just keep building. |
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Lazza
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia
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| MJ23 wrote: | | Mayne is gone and so will cox. |
I think the Cox situation will depend on how his conversation went with McRea. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays at Collingwood, at least until our young talls like Begg, Lynch reach the standard required to play at AFL level.
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Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine! |
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rad
Joined: 12 Sep 2012
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INXS - best post I’ve seen for quite a while.
I agree 100% with all those inclusions.
Apparently Dogs want to play hardball on Lipinski trade. |
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Macattacks
Joined: 12 Sep 2021
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| MJ23 wrote: | yeah but we are hardly challenging for a flag now. Dees had those older players, they were pushed out the last few years. Jones being one of them.
Mayne is gone and so will cox.
Ideally the kids we have brought in the last 2 years plus Daicos this year will push the older players out over this year and next - thats what happened in 2010.
Obree, Fraser, Medhurst, Lockyer were all in the team at the start of the year and didn't make the GF. |
But when we push our vets out our stars will be moving out of their prime and the kids won't have matured yet, both our premierships had a similar age demographic to the Dees, you can't have a gaping hole in your list and you absolutely can't have it in the sweet spot separating Vets and Kids
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Moore De Goey
Last edited by Macattacks on Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:19 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Macattacks
Joined: 12 Sep 2021
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| jackcass wrote: |
Exactly. Every team ebbs and flows. Be great if we can be competitive 2022 but unlikely we'll push for a flag. Even 2023 is unlikely. Just keep building. |
Til when? 2024? still unlikely but lets look at where it puts us
Pendles 36
Howe 34
Sidebottom 33
Adams Crisp 31
Grundy 30
Moore De Goey Maynard 28
Not exactly Petracca Oliver etc in the 24-26 year sweet spot is it
N Daicos will be 21 and every one of our stars above retired or over 30 before he's in his prime
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Moore De Goey |
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jackcass
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo
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| Macattacks wrote: | | jackcass wrote: |
Exactly. Every team ebbs and flows. Be great if we can be competitive 2022 but unlikely we'll push for a flag. Even 2023 is unlikely. Just keep building. |
Til when? 2024? still unlikely but lets look at where it puts us
Pendles 36
Howe 34
Sidebottom 33
Adams Crisp 31
Grundy 30
Moore De Goey Maynard 28
Not exactly Petracca Oliver etc in the 24-26 year sweet spot is it
N Daicos will be 21 and every one of our stars above retired or over 30 before he's in his prime |
I'm more than happy for you to focus on the negative potential, I'll remain optimistic.
I'm very keen to see what Bianco, Ruscoe, Henry, Macrae, Ginnivan, McInnes, McMahon, Begg, Johnson, Rantall, and Chugg can deliver. Still remain optimistic about both the Brown lads can offer. We'll have 2x Daicos's and Dib. If the scuttlebutt holds true we'll add Lipinski and Kreuger.
That's a pretty solid group to progress together from next year and I don't put a ceiling on their potential. Add them to our established players and who knows what 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond will bring.
We'll get there when we get there, hopefully it's sooner rather than later. If it's post the completion of the careers of Pendles et al then so be it. No amount of hand wringing will change that.
History has also shown that it's only judicious trading of players from other teams that makes the ultimate difference. May, Lever, Langdon to Melbourne, Patton, Frost, Mitchell to Hawthorn, McGovern, Williams, Martin to the Blues. |
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Macattacks
Joined: 12 Sep 2021
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| jackcass wrote: |
I'm more than happy for you to focus on the negative potential, I'll remain optimistic.
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I merely posted the numbers, that's what happens under your scenario, our stars are wasted on rebuilding years then useless to us when the whips are cracking, you don't have to make it about about positive or negative, it's just the numbers
I wish it was different but the reality is we can't go down the tried and true path without wasting Moore De Goey Grundy Maynard etc, we need some crafty trading in a specific age range which I'm thrilled (and positive) to see is already occurring
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Moore De Goey |
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jackcass
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Location: Bendigo
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| Macattacks wrote: | | jackcass wrote: |
I'm more than happy for you to focus on the negative potential, I'll remain optimistic.
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I merely posted the numbers, that's what happens under your scenario, our stars are wasted on rebuilding years then useless to us when the whips are cracking, you don't have to make it about about positive or negative, it's just the numbers
I wish it was different but the reality is we can't go down the tried and true path without wasting Moore De Goey Grundy Maynard etc, we need some crafty trading in a specific age range which I'm thrilled (and positive) to see is already occurring |
It's not just my scenario, it's life. You can dwell on it or accept it and move on. |
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