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Dave The Man 
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | Just a cautionary word about where Victoria's numbers may be heading.
NSW first hit 900 cases per day on 25 August 2021. Since it first reached that number (and before it reports the new case number for yesterday), that state has recorded a total of more than 37,000 new cases. At the moment, Victoria has had a total of under 12,000 new cases since 12 July, when the present Victorian outbreak began. NSW has had a total of about 51,500 cases since its present outbreak began (according to the NSW Government, that was 15 June 2021 - although I don't think it matters much what start date you take because numbers there were trivial between Anzac Day and the end of June).
So, whatever the detail is, it is reasonable to anticipate that Victoria will have at least 30,000 to 40,000 new cases in the next month.
Keep vaccinating, folks. |
Thanks to Protest and Grand Final Weekends I am expecting the Cases to be 1000+ a Day next week.
Shot then will Sydney have 50 000+ Cases Then too?
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I am Da Man |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| ^ NSW's R(eff) has been dropping steadily but has started rising again towards 1 (it's presently over 0.9), so they're on a bit of a knife-edge, once more. It's too early to tell what's going to happen, there. As I have said before in other contexts, the problem with COVID is that it ramps up quickly but, once cases increase, it's very hard to force them down (that was true of the original version of the virus and is, I think, even more true of Delta). I think NSW will report fewer cases than Victoria some time over the next few days but, really, who knows? |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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The 7 day curve has turned in NSW and the R(eff) is staying below 1, Victoria is close but not there yet.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-24/melbourne-coronavirus-growth-slowing-curve-bend/100487124
The scary thing for Victoria is that a number of the protesters aren't the type to get tested. The anti vaxxers and conspiracy theorists. If they catch Covid at the protests, they'll likely ignore symptoms until/unless they need to get medical treatment, by which time they'll have infected friends and particularly family. We won't know if we have substantial spreading until those friends and family and other close contacts get tested.
| Quote: | The outbreak is being driven by spread within and between households, many of them containing young essential workers across Melbourne's north and west.
COVID-19 response commander Jeroen Weimar said about 55 per cent of the recent cases were household contacts, and the vast majority of the remaining 45 per cent was coming through social interactions between households. |
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-25/victoria-records-new-local-covid-cases-vaccine-progress/100491112
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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Per capita, Victoria's daily numbers were higher than NSW today.
The short sharp lockdowns have been very effective to ensure we don't finish up like NSW.
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| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| stui magpie wrote: | The 7 day curve has turned in NSW and the R(eff) is staying below 1, Victoria is close but not there yet.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-24/melbourne-coronavirus-growth-slowing-curve-bend/100487124
The scary thing for Victoria is that a number of the protesters aren't the type to get tested. The anti vaxxers and conspiracy theorists. If they catch Covid at the protests, they'll likely ignore symptoms until/unless they need to get medical treatment, by which time they'll have infected friends and particularly family. We won't know if we have substantial spreading until those friends and family and other close contacts get tested.
| Quote: | The outbreak is being driven by spread within and between households, many of them containing young essential workers across Melbourne's north and west.
COVID-19 response commander Jeroen Weimar said about 55 per cent of the recent cases were household contacts, and the vast majority of the remaining 45 per cent was coming through social interactions between households. |
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-25/victoria-records-new-local-covid-cases-vaccine-progress/100491112 |
They found someone at the Protests had Covid as he went to Hospital with it
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I am Da Man |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Jezza wrote: | Per capita, Victoria's daily numbers were higher than NSW today.
The short sharp lockdowns have been very effective to ensure we don't finish up like NSW. |
Did you miss the memo about NSW having had over 40,000 more cases than Victoria, so far, in 2021? |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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In Victoria:
| Quote: | Reported yesterday: 779 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas.
- 34,280 vaccines administered
- 46,322 test results received
- Sadly, 2 people with COVID-19 have died |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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From NSW Health twitter:
| Quote: | NSW recorded 961 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.
.... The total number of cases in NSW since the beginning of the pandemic is 58,742.
Sadly, NSW Health is today reporting the deaths of nine people with COVID-19 - six men and three women.
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There have been 297 COVID-19 related deaths in NSW since 16 June 2021 and 353 in total since the start of the pandemic.
There have been 53,088 locally acquired cases reported since 16 June 2021, when the first case in this outbreak was reported.
....
Of the 961 locally acquired cases reported to 8pm last night, 246 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 206 are from Western Sydney LHD, 102 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 96 are from Sydney LHD, 82 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 75 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 45 are from Hunter New England LHD, 36 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 30 are from Central Coast LHD, 21 are from Western NSW LHD, 11 are from Southern NSW LHD, five are from Far West LHD, two are in correctional settings and four cases are yet to be assigned to an LHD. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Dave The Man wrote: |
They found someone at the Protests had Covid as he went to Hospital with it |
And now a second man who attended the protests has tested positive, Commander Covid says he would have been infectious at the protest he attended.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| So, what's the answer? I mean, short of live ammunition? |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| The water cannons need do return, they’d run a lot quicker if they got wet and cold on a Melbourne winters day! Plus it’d be effective against the glue squad from Extinction Rebellion!!! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | So, what's the answer? I mean, short of live ammunition? |
Do what some of the protesters are claiming is already being done.
Mix the vaccine into the pepper spray and mace the farkers.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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What'sinaname 
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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In 2021, the number of influenza cases is 21,005. In 2019, we have 214,377 flu cases.
So far, there have been ZERO influenza related deaths in Australia this year. compared to 902 in 2019.
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Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Masks and lockdowns obviously work. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | Masks and lockdowns obviously work. |
Unfortunately the patient died but the operation was a success
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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