The concept of "luck" has no place in football

[Pies4shaw]

People who aren't very good at things love to attribute failure to "bad luck". Chance does, of course, always play a part - but narratives based upon a fiction that "the universe is against us" are pointless.

If you look at the stats over a long period, what you discern, instead, is a general pattern that our very best players had their better years when we went to the Grand Final. I've been reviewing our "top 20" season figures all-time from AFL Tables. All-time greats (and Tom Phillips, who wouldn't usually be put in that category) had stand-out seasons together in a number of those years. When you look at the names, there should be no real surprise about who is there (or who isn't).

I'll start with the "disposals" tallies and come back to the others, as and when the mood takes me. I plan to do "marks" next.

Most disposals in Grand Final years, all-time for Collingwood:

Swan 820 (2010)
Sidebottom 764 (2018)
Swan 760 (2011)
Pendlebury 742 (2011)
Shaw 736 (1990)
Pendlebury 691 (2010)
Pendlebury 670 (2018)
Phillips 664 (2018)
Russell 664 (1990)

[The General]

I'd say we've had some "bad luck" with injuries over recent years. What does that mean we are not good at?

[Pies4shaw]

Analysing cause and effect, probably.

[Pies4shaw]

From the "top 20" marks tallies at Collingwood, all-time, come these:

Tarrant 219 (2003)
Cloke 192 (2011)
Cloke 171 (2010)
McKenna 164 (1970)
Jenkin 163 (1970)
Reid 161 (2011)

[stui magpie]

Interesting data, but I'd be interested in performance in the GF relative to the rest of the season.

eg, in 2018 Sidey averaged 29.4 disposals per game during the season. He had 41 in the prelim against Richmond, but had 14 disposals in the GF.

[Pies4shaw]

Well, that's about winning them. We know that has only happened twice in recent memory. I'm not going to repeat my view about 2018, since that will only result in the usual suspects trolling Sidebottom.

[i hate carlton]

Any ball that bounces like a sherrin, when it hits the ground, brings a strong element of luck to all matches.

[RudeBoy]

Reminds me of a line from an old blues song..."if it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all."

[What'sinaname]

No Grundy in either list......proves he's overpaid.....

and don't go bringing up useless stats like hit outs or clearances, or anything like that to prove your man-love for Grundy

[Rd10.1998_11.1#36]

For me it's not so much about the Swans, Pendleburys and Clokes but the players who lift around them, or transform into another role, in GF seasons

The one I always remember is Rowdy... had a career average of 0.8 goals per game; in 1990 he averaged 2.7

[Pies4shaw]

Brown played brilliant football in a number of spots. He didn’t play that much at FF.

[Ronnie McKeowns boots]

He did in the latter half of 1990, to great effect if memory serves

[Pies4shaw]

I wasn't going to do hitouts - but What'sinaname is obviously desperate to see, so here goes:

Grundy 1,038 (2018)
Moore 580 (1980)
Jolly 579 (2010)
Moore 579 (1981)
Moore 495 (1979)
Thompson 411 (1977)
Jolly 383 (2011)


It's really beyond the scope of what I was looking at but rucking throws up one interesting anomaly - in 1970, Thompson and Jenkin rucked about equally and Bob Heard played a lot, too. Effectively, the first ruck (Thompson and Jenkin) had almost 600 hitouts and the relief ruck (Heard 111, Dunne 49 and Waters 36) had almost another 200. So, even though it doesn't look like a year in which there was a statistically strong rucking performance, there was (844 hitouts, compared to 594 in 1969).

[Pies2016]

Back in the 80s, I remember a number of very smart footy people subscribing to the general theory of “ you’re only as good as your worst player “
It probably first started with Mario Bortolotto.
In recent times I think more people are subscribing to the “ only as good as your best players “ theory.
Those stats would suggest it’s of more importance to have your best players playing at their best as opposed to your B graders playing to a higher level.

PS - he was a fine player, Scotty Russell.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Russell was a magnificent player. His 1990 was one of the finest seasons ever played by a Collingwood midfielder.