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ronrat 



Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand

PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:40 pm
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In the early 80s I shared a house with a bloke who like me also followed LA Raiders. I was in the casino and the bookie was offering 1000-1 for them to win the superbowl. So I had 2 bucks on it and got home and my housemate gave me a dollar. It was a ticket for the mantlepiece.

They won the next 7 games in a row and had to win the last one to get into the superbowl.

I rang the casino and said what price are the Raiders. 6-1 . I said well 1000-1 is looking good. The bloke said are you the punter who had 2 bucks on them. I said yeah.

They took my number and tang me a few hours later and I said it was a 1 each for me and my housemate. They said if LA wins this week can you be available to come to ABC for the superbowl coverage. The deal was me and the mate would be given a limousine from Ringwood to Elsternwick and back. Free snacks and drinks (Bourbon and yank beer), snacks during the game and scarfs and shirts etc . Yeah it is Australia Day, we can do that. Crown was paying for it.

Got beaten by 5 points in last game and team that finished on top romped the SB in.

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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:04 am
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So, the last few weeks have been very interesting. Giants probably went better than I expected, shortening into 18/1 at one stage (Now 25/1) for the WS.

Best performers over their last 15 games;

American League

Astros 12 -3
Athletics 11-4
Angels 10-5
Indians, Mariners & Red Sox 9-6

Yankees only winning 7 of their last 15

National League

Dodgers 11-4
Giants 10-5
Nationals, Brewers, Phillies, Mets & Reds 9-6

Padres only winning 6 of their last 15.


Current WS market. Shortners in blue, drifters in red.

LA Dodgers $4.50 ($4,25)
Chicago White Sox $6.50 ($9)
NY Mets $8.50 ($10)

San Diego Padres $9 ($8 )
NY Yankees $11 ($8 )

Tampa Bay Rays $11 ($21)
Houston Astros $13 ($17)
Oakland Athletics $13 ($19)
Milwaukee Brewers $17 ($29)
Boston Red Sox $19 ($21
)
Toronto Blue Jays $26 ($19)
Atlanta Braves $26 ($21)
St Louis Cardinals $26 ($23)

SF Giants $26 ($41)
Chicago Cubs $34 ($51)
Cleveland Indians $34 ($41)

Philadelphia Phillies $41 ($34)
Cincinnati Reds $41 ($51)
LA Angels $51 ($67)

Washington Nationals $67 (-)
Minnesota Twins $101 ($67)
Miami Marlins $101 ($81)/Kansa City Royals $101 ($81)

Seattle Mariners $126 (-)
Arizona Diamondbacks $250 ($201)
Texas Rangers/Baltimore Orioles $501 ($201)Pittsburgh Pirates/Colorado Rockies/Detroit Tigers ($251)

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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:30 am
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K wrote:

Skids wrote:
...
Anything can happen in baseball though... 9 of the 16 favourites lost today.

My feeling is that it's very hard to win betting on individual games of MLB or NBA. Maybe individual results are too random.


11 out of 15 favs won today.
7 out of 13 Sunday.
8 out of 15 Saturday.
6 out of 9 Friday.
9 out of 15 Thursday.

So yes, they can be very random indeed.... it's a pretty random game.

I had a 4 leg multi going on Wednesday, first 3 legs in and I needed the Giants to win for the 4th leg. They're down 8-3 at the bottom of the 5th (paying $26 to win at that point). They score 2 at the bottom of the 6th to make it 8-5. I still write it off as a loss... check later and they scored 4 in the 8th to take it out 9-8.

I have a system I use in the baseball and it's centred around individual pitchers records. I haven't played it for a while, but kicked it off again last week. I've collected on 3 of my last 4 bets.

A quick explanation on how it works; I look for a pitcher who has a far superior record to the opposing pitcher on the day. Say The Giants are playing the Dodgers, Gausman has a far better win rate than the opposing pitcher, Cleavinger, so I'll take the Giants in that leg... regardless of their price.

There's a few other factors I consider also, which would take a bit to explain. There wasn't any contests that fit my criteria today, so it's a 'no bet'

This is a good page to reference... https://www.mlb.com/stats/pitching?sortState=asc

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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:55 pm
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Tomorrows multi only has one favourite in my 3 selections; Indians, Rangers & Reds.
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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:33 pm
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Cashed out with the reds & twins tied at 3-3 in the 8th.
Cash out was even money.... Reds will win now, but I took the profit.

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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:40 pm
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Reds took the lead 5-3 in the extra innings, twins go out to $18.... they've hit 2 the bottom of the 10th, one out with a runner on 1st, 5-5, now twins are $1.35.
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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:44 pm
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All out.. goes to an 11th innings..... glad I cashed out, back to the gardening.
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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:38 pm
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Twins win in the 12th innings. Favourite (Reds) goes down.

Tomorrow it's; Yankees, Astros, Giants @ $4.75

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:16 am
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Skids wrote:
...
I have a system I use in the baseball and it's centred around individual pitchers records. I haven't played it for a while, but kicked it off again last week. I've collected on 3 of my last 4 bets.

A quick explanation on how it works; I look for a pitcher who has a far superior record to the opposing pitcher on the day. Say The Giants are playing the Dodgers, Gausman has a far better win rate than the opposing pitcher, Cleavinger, so I'll take the Giants in that leg... regardless of their price.

There's a few other factors I consider also, which would take a bit to explain. There wasn't any contests that fit my criteria today, so it's a 'no bet'
...

I have only one doubt about that but it's a big doubt. Surely the pitchers' records are already baked into the odds. When I look at the games' odds, it gives pitchers. If the pitchers change, I believe the bet is voided. (I believe it states this on the betting page.) So if one pitcher is vastly superior, you'd think the market would know and the odds on offer would not be juicy.
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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:16 am
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True in most cases K. Giants are the only outsider in my 3 leg multi today.

Yesterday only 1 of the 3 was the favourite... and they lost!

So, while the odds are usually slim, when it's a 3, 4 or 5 leg multi, the price can be in the $4.50 - $10 range. The last time I did this system it was profitable. The key is, to not get greedy... going for line margins or throwing in a leg just because you think they can win anyway, that's when it comes unstuck.

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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:16 pm
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Let down by the $1.38 favourites, the Yankees 5-6

Tomorrow it's a double Giants/Athletics @ $3.40.

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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:52 am
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Athletics let me down.

Need to get back on the winners list!

Athletics/Astros/Twins/Dodgers @ $6.25 today.

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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2021 8:06 am
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I wanted to put the Red Sox in as well, but there was no market for them before I went to bed last night... paying $2.02. Would've made the multi a 5 leg at $12.60.
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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Sat Jun 26, 2021 6:52 am
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A good read on how the Giants have come along this season.

How did the San Francisco Giants become the best team in baseball?

Tim Kweon wrote:

The Giants, baseball's best and most intriguing/mystifying/idiosyncratic/just plain weird team, are a mostly interchangeable collection of players orbiting around three or four foundational veteran position players. They have the best record in the National League and are leading a division that also contains the Dodgers and Padres, two teams who have pulled off the kind of boldface moves that would make finishing behind the Giants both embarrassing and objectively hilarious.

https://www.espn.com.au/mlb/story/_/id/31604634/how-did-san-francisco-giants-become-best-team-baseball



Have been backed in to 13/1 from 100/1... my 'cash out' offer is now 9/2, tempting, but not tempting enough, Giants are the real deal!

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Skids Cancer

Skids


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:55 pm
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The Giants continue to rack up the wins and sit clear on top of the National league table. Now 12/1 for the WS.

The teams get a few days off as we head into the All Stars game.
Telecast live on ESPN 2 - 7.30am WST Wednesday. The American league have won the last 7 in a row.

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