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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Post subject: Re: Tasmanian election 2021 |  |
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Vale Tasmania’s environment
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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Swing against the government (not sure about that overall, but certainly the case in several seats), Labor steady, Greens up, but overall no change in the result, it seems. Last time I looked, there were three seats still up for grabs. The Liberals must win one of them to have a majority government. So it's wait and see.
Here in the south of the state, the mood is clearly for a change: the backward districts in the north, unfortunately, let the side down.
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�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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Lol, 1.5 swing against government yet Labor had a 4.3% swing against it, definitely not holding steady...
If Liberals get that last seat it was a good choice by the government to go to the polls and get rid of the turncoat who won’t get elected as an independent it seems. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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State governments, it seems status quo remains unless they seriously %$^$%^&%% up.
Political parties have lost the art of being an effective opposition, instead they play small target and hope for mistakes.
I saw the Greens leader rabbiting on last night. Oh Dear.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Tannin
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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Clueless, Eddie, utterly clueless. She was anything but a "turncoat", the party back room morons booted her out to make room for someone from a different faction.
The swing against the Liberals is clear; it went (1) to independents like Sue Hickey; and (2) to the Greens who are well up on last time. Labor lost their most appealing and popular candidate (retired before the election) and comprehensively screwed up their campaign, plus Gutwein pulled a dirty trick by calling an early election when the Opposition Leader was just a few weeks away from giving birth. A real dog act.
When you consider that thanks to Covid every other state government is 20-odd percent ahead of where they would otherwise be - look at WA for the love of Mike! - this has been a shocker for the Tasmanian Liberals. Their hopeless mismanagement of the health system has really hurt them.
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�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| stui magpie wrote: | State governments, it seems status quo remains unless they seriously %$^�$%^&%% up.
Political parties have lost the art of being an effective opposition, instead they play small target and hope for mistakes.
I saw the Greens leader rabbiting on last night. Oh Dear. |
I don’t know what was more embarrassing, the Greens leader or the idiot on the ABC who said any criticism was because people have an issue with women... |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| Tannin wrote: | Clueless, Eddie, utterly clueless. She was anything but a "turncoat", the party back room morons booted her out to make room for someone from a different faction.
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Coming from the person who says a 4% swing against is holding steady... |
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Tannin
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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That was in the seats counted up to that time, Stui. Get it right.
Two independents in Clark (the former Dennison) between them have 21% of the vote. That's over 4% of the entire statewide vote just for those two. It is anybody's guess whether one of those two will get elected. If neither does, those preferences will probably go to Labor in the main, as will the surplus Green preferences in Clark. But anything could still happen there: a second Liberal is also on the cards.
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�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Tannin wrote: | That was in the seats counted up to that time, Stui. Get it right.
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Que?
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Anthony Green's Sunday morning observations on the tally in Clark, which will determine the result:
| Quote: | Clark – With Glenorchy pre-poll added early this morning, the Liberals have 1.88 quotas, Labor 1.32, Greens 1.21, Kristie Johnston 0.68 and Sue Hickey 0.59.
Liberal Elise Archer, Labor’s Ella Haddad and Green Cassy O’Connor are re-elected. The second Liberal is a race between Labor turned Independent MHA turned Liberal candidate Madeleine Ogilvie and Liberal Simon Behrakis. The most likely outcome will be one of these being elected along with Independent Kristie Johnson.
There are enough preferences floating around, and likely leakage from the Liberal ticket, to make it possible both Johnston and ex-Liberal Independent Sue Hickey could be elected. Both need to catch the surplus beyond one quota of the second Liberal. While it is highly likely one of the Independents can do this, most probably Johnston, it is much harder for both to pass the second Liberal. Further counting today could clarify the situation.
Counting today will be the Granton and Kingston pre-polls, mobile polling places, out of division votes and maybe some extra postals. I’ll try and do an update after I’m back in Sydney this afternoon.
In what is Tasmania’s most left-wing electorate, Labor’s Clark result is dreadful, down more than 20 percentage points to just 22%. |
And his update from 6 pm last evening:
| Quote: | | Sunday 6pm the addition of Mobiles and the Kingston and Granton pre-polls moved the Liberal vote from 1.88 to 1.91 quotas, Labor unchanged on 1.32 , Greens down from 1.21 to 1.17, Kristie Johnston unchanged on 0.68 and Sue Hickey up from 0.59 to 0.61. This slightly improves the chances of the Liberals winning two seats. |
https://antonygreen.com.au/tasmanian-election-update/ |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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A majority liberal government will continue if not accelerate Tasmania’s degradation of the environment. The ALP are not much better but were often kept in check by the Greens.
The Salmon industry let alone logging and inappropriate development is killing the Tasmanian environment.
Simply an appalling state of affairs.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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A second Sat is always a good thing
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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