Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign

[David]

Seven of the last eight House seats called have all gone to Democrats – it's now 211(R) to 201(D) with 218 needed for a majority. Of the 26 yet to be called, Republicans are leading in 10 and Democrats are leading in 15.

In the senate, Arizona has been called for the Democrats and the Republican lead in Nevada is down to just 0.2% with 93% counted.

[What'sinaname]

The house was always going to controlled by the R. That's still the most likely outcome.

[David]

Most likely, for sure. But it'd be pretty astonishing if it doesn't happen, and there's still a chance of that. Democrats would only need to hold on to the 15 uncalled seats they're leading in and pick up two more (for instance, California-13, where the Republican leads by 0.11%, or Colorado-3, where Republican Lauren Boebert leads by 0.35%).

For context, the only time since 1978 that the party holding the presidency has maintained control of both houses of congress in a midterm election was in 2002, when the Republicans narrowly increased their majorities in the wake of September 11. And you have to go back to 1934 under Roosevelt for the previous time the president's party managed to increase their numbers in both houses, and the time before that was 1818. Blow-outs are much more commonplace than close elections like this one, particularly when you have an unpopular president and the economy isn't going well.

[Jezza]

House results so far:

(-9 seats) Democratic 199-211 Republican (+7 seats)

25 seats outstanding. Need 218 to form a majority.

Senate results so far:

(+1 seat) Democratic 49-49 Republican (-1 seat)

Georgia runoff election will occur on December 6.

Nevada result is still outstanding with 95% counted. The GOP leads by 0.1%.

[Pies4shaw]

^ It's likely Masto will overtake Laxalt in Nevada in counting tonight - what's left are apparently Las Vegas postal votes from districts that strongly favour the Democrats. She needs to win about 55% of the remaining votes and the relevant districts have been going 60/40 her way.

[Pies4shaw]

Here's Laxalt's take on the Nevada Senate race:

[David]

The New York Times has called Nevada for the Democrats, so they’ve kept control of the senate. The Georgia runoff will still be important as a win there means they only need to get the vote of one of Manchin or Sinema to pass legislation as opposed to both.

The House is now 211 R to 204 D, still 20 seats yet to be called.

[roar]

Isn't the real interest of these mid-terms centred around whether the results will encourage Trump to run for Pres in 2024?

[David]

If so, it's fair to say it's put a dent in his prospects – or, at least, a lot of party figures seem to want to move on from him (and time will tell whether that translates to any shift in voter sentiment).

But I think the real question here is whether any midterms result – or anything whatsoever – would be enough to stop him from doing what he wants, which is clearly to run. I don't think he's in need of further encouragement at this stage.

[David]

Five more house seats called for the Republicans, meaning they need just one more to seal a majority, whereas the Democrats would need to win all fourteen outstanding. They do currently lead in ten of those, however.

Edit: and now another five called for Democrats makes it 217–209 with just nine seats left to call (Democrats lead in five of those).

[David]

Trump has officially announced his candidacy:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-prepares-to-launch-third-white-house-bid-in-defiance-of-critics-20221116-p5bymv.html

[stui magpie]

Scary thought. That his message still resonates with so many people should be ringing alarm bells, particularly because he's proven to be incapable of delivering on it.

Apart from the circus toward the end he didn't do as bad a job as many of his more vocal critics would have you believe, but he shouldn't get a second go now.

FMD, neither Biden or Trump should be remotely electable, they're both well past their best before date. Biden gets lost in his back yard, Trump still has all his faculties but just no.

[eddiesmith]

Would be absolutely hilarious if he got back in though!

[stui magpie]

nah, once was more than enough, it wouldn't be hilarious, it would be a sad indictment on the country in general and the Democrats in particular. They've had ample opportunity to lean why people voted for him.

[doriswilgus]

Trump’s only running because he thinks that being a candidate for President will protect him from the multitude of criminal investigations he’s facing.Wishful thinking on his part,because it won’t make the slightest difference to whether he is prosecuted or not.

The other motivating factor is money.He wants to bilk as much money as possible from his supporters to pay for his enormous legal fees.He did it before with his rediciulous stop the steal campaign which was ostensibly aimed at overturning the election result but was merely a ploy to line his own pockets and pay off his legal fees.

Of course his own supporters were only too happy to oblige and got taken for a ride as they always are.The old saying about a fool and his money are soon parted certainly applies to these gullible people.