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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| roar wrote: | | TBH, I don't think there is a way to unite the MAGA nutters with the Democrat crowd. Well, nothing short of a major war but even then I'm not sure it would work. Major natural disaster, maybe. |
The POTUS was right on the money when it comes to the MAGA nutters (I know it’s a tautology). I don’t think however he went far enough. The POTUS needs to prohibit first cousins from marrying and having children. Look at the consequences in MAGA:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/26/trump-qanon-rallies-negative48/
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Standard news day it seems.
My read is that she said the aid would be based on equity and acknowledged that couloured communities were among those most disadvantaged, Basically, we'll give the aid to the people who need it most, a lot of them just happen to be black.
Nothing wrong with that, nothing to see here.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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What'sinaname 
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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"The United States shares a very important relationship, which is an alliance with the Republic of North Korea,” Harris said. “It is an alliance that is strong and enduring.”
That's what happens when you spend more time being woke than understanding what's actually happening in the world.
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Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| stui magpie wrote: |
Standard news day it seems.
My read is that she said the aid would be based on equity and acknowledged that couloured communities were among those most disadvantaged, Basically, we'll give the aid to the people who need it most, a lot of them just happen to be black.
Nothing wrong with that, nothing to see here. |
I simply can’t believe that the Trump conservative racist rump would deliberately misquote Harris to politicise the recovery of Hurricane Ian  😜
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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Creepy Joe doing what he does best....being creepy
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Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Not deliberately creepy, the old boys cheese is just barely clinging to his cracker. Surely cannot get a second term.
And speaking of second terms, if the Republicans put Trump up again........
C'mon people, surely there has to be some decent alternatives?
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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| stui magpie wrote: | Not deliberately creepy, the old boys cheese is just barely clinging to his cracker. Surely cannot get a second term.
And speaking of second terms, if the Republicans put Trump up again........
C'mon people, surely there has to be some decent alternatives? |
DeSantis vs Newsom. |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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DeSantis the obvious standout for the GOP if it's not Trump.
Agree on Newsom. Don't like his politics but I can see him being far more popular than Harris even if Biden doesn't run for a second term.
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Last edited by Jezza on Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:53 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I don't think DeSantis can win. He might well get the nomination if Trump doesn't run, but I think he lacks anything in the way of broad appeal. The Martha's Vineyard stunt was a great example of someone playing to the base but successfully alienating most other people (including, one suspects, a lot of non-partisan observers).
As the Katherine Deves preselection here showed, a politics of spite and cruelty has inherent limits and needs something broader to be attached to. With Trump it was a promise to restore American manufacturing, an unabashed nationalism and the inherent benefits of being seen as an outsider who isn't playing the same game as everyone else (also, being a TV celebrity didn't hurt). DeSantis is starting from a much bigger handicap. I'm sure the Democrats will do their best to make Republicans' job easier, but if all the Republicans are offering eight years on from 2016 is another serve of "owning the libs", I think they're going to get massacred.
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roar
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
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I admire your youthful optimism but from the cynical, old man perspective, we're in for Trump II and all the madness that follows.
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kill for collingwood! |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Oh, I have no doubt Trump can win again if he runs! Just have less faith in his acolytes.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I guess this is the designated US midterms thread now!  Votes will be cast for both houses of congress this Wednesday (Australian time), with large ramifications for the next couple of years.
Biden has so far enjoyed a narrow majority in both houses, but been unable to get much of any legislation through – thanks in part to two conservative Democrats holding things up in the senate (though, thanks to the filibuster rule, he really needs 60 votes to enact real change, and that's never going to happen). Unfortunately for the Democrats, both polling and historical precedent suggests that their position is going to get worse, not better, with Republicans tipped to regain a majority in one or both houses, as often happens in first-term presidential administrations when the other party is in power. Some forces counteracting that are the extremely unpopular Supreme Court decision to allow states to ban abortion, which seems to be working against the Republicans politically, and the further shifting of the Republican Party (through primaries) to the conspiracy-theory-oriented, anti-democratic Trumpian/Qanon far right. What's clear is that the days of extremely low midterm turn-outs are over; Democratic and Republican voters alike seem to be more motivated to get out and vote than they've been in a long time.
While it's hard to see Biden's position improving significantly, a Republican majority in the house and senate may lead to impeachment proceedings (don't worry, they'll find a reason!) and various other shenanigans, leading to an even more chaotic and divided political situation in the lead-up to the 2024 election.
For me, the best result to hope for would be a thorough repudiation of Trumpian Republican politics that leads to an existential crisis for that party and some ability for the current presidential administration to pass some much-needed reforms. Will be very interesting to see what transpires, in any case.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Biden is rapidly becoming a caricature, they can't let him run for a second term, and unfortunately his abject lack of meaningful leadership and seemingly increasing dementia does nothing to encourage people to vote Democrat.
The US have a minimum age for becoming POTUS, they should consider a maximum age too. Shades of Ronnie Raygun.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I don't support a maximum age, per se, but there certainly needs to be a better mechanism for encouraging ageing politicians with declining faculties to retire. It's not just the presidency, either; the Democrats in particular are rife with senior party leaders – several in important positions – who are in their late 70s and beyond. Senator Dianne Feinstein (89), for instance, makes Biden look sprightly in comparison:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/04/report-dianne-feinstein-memory-rapidly-deteriorating
| Quote: | | While the colleagues who raised concerns about her condition said that her memory lapses “do not appear to be constant,” they recounted distressing episodes that raised significant questions about her ability to govern. In one, a congressional Democrat from California who has known Feinstein for 15 years had to repeatedly introduce themself to the senator over the course of several hours of “small talk.” “I have worked with her for a long time and long enough to know what she was like just a few years ago: always in command, always in charge, on top of the details, basically couldn’t resist a conversation where she was driving some bill or some idea. All of that is gone,” the congressional Democrat told the Chronicle. “She was an intellectual and political force not that long ago, and that’s why my encounter with her was so jarring. Because there was just no trace of that.” |
There are a lot of silly distractions out there about ageism or ableism, or suggesting it's unkind to point out that elderly politicians might not be playing with a full deck. But the simple fact is that it's an important, high-pressure role, and if you're no longer up to it you're no longer up to it – and, worse, taking space away from someone who might be able to do a much better job. There'll undoubtedly be some politicians who remain sharp and lucid into their 80s and even 90s (and Bernie Sanders may be one of those), and I wouldn't want to arbitrarily hold them back if they're still good at what they do, but those really should be the exceptions, not the norm. Same goes for supreme court judges.
It's not a problem we seem to have here in Australia, interestingly – whether it's due to a comparative lack of ego, unspoken convention or better party processes for ensuring people make way when it's time, we don't seem to have many people clinging on to parliamentary seats into old age, and I don't think there's ever been a suggestion we need a maximum age here. Would be interesting to figure out exactly why that is.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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MIDTERMS PREVIEW
House of Representatives:
The House of Representatives consists of 435 seats, with 218 seats required to form a majority.
In this election cycle, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. Ordinarily, the House of Representatives elections are held every two years in the US and all seats are up for election.
As it stands, the Democrats currently have 220 seats in their disposal, while the Republicans have 212 seats. Therefore, this means the Republicans require flipping 6 seats currently held by the Democrats in order to win back control of the House.
Most mainstream polls are predicting that the Republicans will reclaim the House, but it's a matter of how big the margin will be.
Traditionally, the party that is in power in the executive branch of government (currently the Democrats with Joe Biden as President) often loses control of the House. This happened to the Democrats in 2008 after Obama won the Presidential election, but they lost the House to the Republicans in 2010. This also happened to the Republicans in 2018 after Trump won the Presidential election two years earlier.
There's a lot of evenly contested seats up for grabs, so I won't bother posting the whole list here.
Senate:
The Senate has 100 seats, which consists of 2 seats for each state so every state has equal representation regardless of its population numbers. However, usually only 33 or 34 seats of seats are up for grabs in each Senate election which is ordinarily held every two years.
As it stands, the Democrats hold 48 seats with two independents (which includes Bernie Sanders), the Republicans hold 50 seats making up the 100 seats in the Senate. The independents caucus with the Senate Democrats which takes their power up to 50 seats.
In this election cycle, the Democrats are required to defend 14 Senate seats (including the two Independents), while the Republicans need to defend 21 seats.
Most pundits are 50/50 as to who takes control of the Senate after these elections.
Key Seats:
- Arizona (currently held by Democrats)
- Colorado (currently held by Democrats)
- Florida (currently held by Republicans)
- Georgia (currently held by Democrats)
- Nevada (currently held by Democrats)
- New Jersey (currently held by Democrats)
- New Hampshire (currently held by Democrats)
- Pennsylvania (currently held by Republicans)
- Washington (currently held by Democrats)
- Wisconsin (currently held by Republicans)
I'm predicting the Republicans will flip Georgia and Nevada, and the others will remain in the same party's hands.
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are seen to be the most evenly contested states.
Governor:
For those who might not know, think of the Governors as almost being the equivalent to the Premiers in each state in Australia.
Key races:
- Arizona = Kari Lake (R) vs Katie Hobbs (D)
- Florida = Ron DeSantis (R) vs Charlie Crist (D)
- Kansas = Laura Kelly (D) vs Derek Schmidt (R)
- Maryland = Dan Cox (R) vs Wes Moore (D)
- Massachusetts = Geoff Diehl (R) vs Maura Healey (D)
- Michigan = Gretchen Whitmer (D) vs Tudor Dixon (R)
- Minnesota = Tim Walz (D) vs Scott Jensen (R)
- Nevada = Steve Sisolak (D) vs Joe Lombardo (R)
- New Mexico = Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs Mark Ronchetti (R)
- New York = Kathy Hochul (D) vs Lee Zeldin (R)
- Oklahoma = Kevin Stitt (R) vs Joy Hofmeister (D)
- Oregon = Tina Kotek (D) vs Christine Drazan (R)
- Wisconsin = Tony Evers (D) vs Tim Michels (R)
The colour shaded indicates which party is the incumbent in each state.
I think the Republicans will gain Kansas, Nevada and Wisconsin. The Democrats will win in Maryland and Massachusetts.
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