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US election 2020 (state-by-state) preview

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:56 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

^ Yep. The losing presidential candidate won the state in 1960, 1988 and 2000.

Nixon was the last Republican to win the state without winning the Presidency.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:29 pm
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MINNESOTA (10)


Interesting Trivia:
• Republicans last won the state in 1972.
• Considered one of the wealthiest states in the country.

Current Composition:
Presidency: Majority voted Democratic in 2016.
House: 5 Democratic, 3 Republican
Senate: 2 Democratic
Governor = Tim Walz (Democratic)

All Registered Voters:
As of November 2 2020
• Minnesota voters do not register by party.
TOTAL = 3,588,563

https://www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/voter-registration-counts/

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Clinton (1.52%)
• 2012 = Obama (7.69%)
• 2008 = Obama (10.24%)
• 2004 = Kerry (3.48%)
• 2000 = Gore (2.41%)
• 1996 = Clinton (16.14%)

2016 Election Result:
Clinton = 1,367,716 (46.44%)
Trump = 1,322,951 (44.92%)
______________________________________________
Clinton won by 44,765 votes (1.52%)

Total = 2,944,813
• Voted for major parties = 91.36%
• Voted for minor parties = 8.64%

Turnout among registered voters
2016 = 74.72%
2012 = 76.42%
2008 = 78.11%
2004 = 78.77%
2000 = 70.11%

2016 Primaries:
Clinton = 78,381 (38.31%) – Democratic = 204,610
Trump = 24,473 (21.42%) – Republican = 114,245

2020 Primaries:
Biden = 287,553 (38.64%) – Democratic = 744,198
Trump = 137,275 (97.70%) – Republican = 140,555

2020 Predictions:
• Most pollsters have it as Lean or Likely Democrats. Real Clear Politics has it as a tossup.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
270 to win = Biden 52.6 - 43.6 Trump = Biden (9.0)
RCP = Biden 48.0 - 43.7 Trump = Biden (4.3)
538 = Biden 53.7 - 44.6 Trump = Biden (9.1)

Bellwether Counties:
Traverse = Bellwether county since 1992
Clay = Bellwether county since 1992
Houston = Bellwether county since 1996

Counties Obama (2012) won that swung to Trump (2016):
Beltrami
Blue Earth
Chippewa
Clay
Fillmore
Freeborn
Houston
Itasca
Kittson
Koochiching
Lac qui Parle
Mahnomen
Mower
Nicollet
Norman
Rice
Swift
Traverse
Winona


Top 5 Tightest County Races in 2016:

Olmsted = Clinton 36,266 (45.3%) – 35,668 (44.5%) Trump
Clinton won by 598 votes (0.8%)

Carlton = Clinton 8,460 (46.5%) – 8,160 (44.8%) Trump
Clinton won by 300 votes (1.7%)

Washington = Clinton 67,086 (46.5%) – 64,429 (44.7%) Trump
Clinton won by 2,657 votes (1.8%)

Clay = Clinton 12,974 (44.1%) – 13,549 (46.1%) Trump
Trump won by 575 votes (2.0%)
Trump flips the county

Lake = Clinton 3,077 (47.2%) – 2,932 (45.0%) Trump
Clinton won by 145 votes (2.2%)


Most Populated County (by results):

Hennepin = 679,970 votes
Clinton (429,283) – Trump (191,768) = Clinton won by 237,515 (34.9%)

Ramsey = 271,200 votes
Clinton (176,929) – Trump (70,778) = Clinton won by 106,151 (39.1%)

Dakota = 228,236 votes
Clinton (110,251) – Trump (99,624) = Clinton won by 10,627 (4.6%)

Anoka = 185,759 votes
Clinton (75,499) – Trump (93,341) = Trump won by 17,842 (3.7%)

Washington = 144,236 votes
Clinton (67,086) – Trump (64,429) = Clinton won by 2,757 (1.8%)


Counties to Watch:
• Good article below on how Clinton and Trump won votes in Minnesota in 2016, and what might unfold tomorrow.
• The article also focuses on specific counties.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/10/28/behind-the-mn-numbers-what-election-2016-says-about-2020

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:17 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Nevada (6)


Interesting Trivia:
• Contrary to popular belief, Las Vegas is not the capital of Nevada. It’s Carson City.
• One of three states (along with Kansas and West Virginia) to be admitted to the union during the US Civil War.
• The state has held 39 elections, with both Democrats and Republicans winning the state on 19 occasions.

Current Composition:
Presidency: Majority voted Democratic in 2016.
House: 3 Democratic, 1 Republican
Senate: 2 Democratic
Governor = Steve Sisolak (Democratic)

Registered Voters:
As of October 2020:
Democratic = 758,578 (37.3%)
Republican = 647,065 (31.8%)
Minor Party = 136,996 (6.7%)
Independent = 489,811 (24.1%)
TOTAL = 2,032,450

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9108

Democrats have increased their voter registration by 89,879 since 2016.
Republicans have increased their voter registration by 98,101 since 2016.

Republicans have a net voter registration gain of 8,222 (1.6%) since 2016.

Overall, voter registration has increased by 346,043 since 2016 across the board, whether someone is registered with a party or not.

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Clinton (2.42%)
• 2012 = Obama (6.68%)
• 2008 = Obama (12.50%)
• 2004 = Bush (2.59%)
• 2000 = Bush (3.54%)
• 1996 = Clinton (1.02%)

2016 Election Result:
Clinton = 539,260 (47.92%)
Trump = 512,058 (45.50%)
______________________________________________
Clinton won by 27,102 votes (2.42%)

Total = 1,125,385
• Voted for major parties = 93.42%
• Voted for minor parties = 6.58%

Turnout of active registered voters
2016 = 74.78%
2012 = 78.12%
2008 = 79.19%
2004 = 77.45%
2000 = 67.79%

2016 Primaries:
Clinton = 6,440 (52.24%) – Democratic = 12,233
Trump = 34,531 (45.75%) – Republican = 75,492

2020 Primaries:
Biden = 18,424 (17.60%) – Democratic = 104,883
Trump = N/A – Republican = N/A

**Republicans did not hold a primary election in Nevada this year.

2020 Predictions:
• Most pollsters have it as Lean Democrats. Real Clear Politics has it as a tossup.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
270 to win = Biden 51.6 - 44.9 Trump = Biden (6.7)
RCP = Biden 48.6 - 45.0 Trump = Biden (3.6)
538 = Biden 52.3 - 46.2 Trump = Biden (6.1)

Bellwether Counties:
Washoe = Bellwether county between 2000-2012. Clinton narrowly won the county by a few thousand votes.


Top 5 Tightest County Races in 2016:

Washoe = Clinton 97,379 (46.4%) – 94,758 (45.1%) Trump
Clinton won by 2,621 votes (1.3%)

Clark = Clinton 402,227 (52.4%) – 320,057 (41.7%) Trump
Clinton won by 82,170 votes (10.7%)

Carson City = Clinton 9,610 (38.4%) – 13,125 (52.5%) Trump
Trump won by 3,515 votes (14.1%)

Mineral = Clinton 637 (31.9%) – 1,179 (59.0%) Trump
Trump won by 542 votes (28.1%)

Douglas = Clinton 8,454 (30.3%) – 17,415 (62.5%) Trump
Trump won by 8,961 votes (32.2%)


Most Populated County (by results):

Clark = 767,156 votes
Clinton (402,227) – Trump (320,057) = Clinton won by 82,170 (10.7%)

Washoe = 209,909 votes
Clinton (97,379) – Trump (94,758) = Clinton won by 2,621 (1.3%)

Douglas = 27,885 votes
Clinton (8,454) – Trump (17,415) = Trump won by 8,961 (32.2%)

Carson City = 25,016 votes
Clinton (9,610) – Trump (13,125) = Trump won by 3,515 (14.1%)

Lyon = 23,762 votes
Clinton (6,146) – Trump (16,005) = Trump won by 9,859 (41.5%)


Counties to Watch:

Clark
• Located in the Las Vegas area, the county made up 68% of the overall vote in Nevada.
• Trump will need to gain at least 10,000 – 15,000 votes in this county to have a chance of winning Nevada.
• Some have suggested potential backlash against the Democrats due to the tourism and hospitality industry being affected by lockdown.
• If Biden wins the county by 80,000 votes, he should win the state.

Washoe
• Between Clark and Washoe counties, this makes up 86% of Nevada’s overall votes.
• Another county that Trump will be looking to flip in his favour after losing narrowly in 2016.

Rest of Nevada
• Trump will need to run up the rural counties by big margins as he did in 2016.

Based on early voting and modelled data from TargetSmart, Biden has an 88,000 vote lead in Clark, while Trump has a 7,000 vote lead in Washoe.

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Sicks Bux Sagittarius

Hal 2003-2019


Joined: 30 Jun 2020
Location: Me Island Ome

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:19 pm
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I'm glad I've got a day off work tomorrow so I can spend it following the election. I'll be watching the ABC coverage and keeping an eye on some of my favourite social media pundits. Can't believe it has been four years already, seems like only yesterday that the people at my work grew increasingly concerned as Trump started to win states which then progressed into outright disbelief when he got up and won. Who knows what tomorrow has in store? Looking forward to it.
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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: in a time zone

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:27 pm
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I’m betting Biden landslide.

(Not actual money, mind you. Not making that mistake twice!)

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:31 pm
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NEW HAMPSHIRE (4)


Interesting Trivia:
• A state last won by the Republicans in 2000.
• Second closest state in the 2016 election.

Current Composition:
Presidency: Majority voted Democratic in 2016.
House: 2 Democratic
Senate: 2 Democratic
Governor = Chris Sununu (Republican)

All Registered Voters:
As of October 2020
Democratic = 316,926 (31.6%)
Republican = 297,972 (29.8%)
Independent = 386,548 (38.6%)
TOTAL = 1,001,446

https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/nh

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Clinton (0.37%)
• 2012 = Obama (5.58%)
• 2008 = Obama (9.65%)
• 2004 = Kerry (1.37%)
• 2000 = Bush (1.27%)
• 1996 = Clinton (9.95%)

2016 Election Result:
Clinton = 348,526 (47.62%)
Trump = 345,790 (47.25%)
______________________________________________
Clinton won by 2,736 votes (2.42%)

Total = 743,117
• Voted for major parties = 94.87%
• Voted for minor parties = 5.13%

Turnout of active registered voters
2016 = 75.03%

2016 Primaries:
Clinton = 95,355 (37.68%) – Democratic = 253,062
Trump = 100,735 (35.23%) – Republican = 285,916

2020 Primaries:
Biden = 24,944 (8.3%) – Democratic = 298,377
Trump = 129,734 (84.40) – Republican = 153,654

2020 Predictions:
• Most pollsters have it as Lean Democrat, with three having it as Likely Democrat.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
• 270 to win = Biden 53.1 – 43.9 Trump = Biden (9.2)
• RCP = Biden 52.7 – 44.0 Trump = Biden (8.7)
• 538 = Biden 54.8 - 44.2 Trump = Biden (10.6)

Bellwether Counties:
Hillsborough = Bellwether county since 1996.
Coos = Bellwether county since 2008 (two misses in 1968 and 2004).

Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016)
Coos
Hillsborough
Sullivan


Top 5 Tightest County Races in 2016:

Hillsborough = Clinton 99,589 (47.3%) – 100,013 (47.5%) Trump
Trump won by 424 votes (0.2%)
Trump flips the county

Sullivan = Clinton 10,210 (46.1%) – 10,796 (48.8%) Trump
Trump won by 586 votes (2.7%)
Trump flips the county

Merrimack = Clinton 40,198 (49.0%) – 37,674 (45.9%) Trump
Clinton won by 2,524 votes (3.1%)

Carroll = Clinton 12,987 (44.6%) – 14,635 (50.3%) Trump
Trump won by 1,648 votes (5.7%)

Rockingham = Clinton 79,994 (44.7%) – 90,447 (50.5%) Trump
Trump won by 10,453 votes (5.8%)


Most Populated County (by results):

Hillsborough = 210,746 votes
Clinton (99,589) – Trump (100,013) = Trump won by 424 (0.2%)

Rockingham = 179,168 votes
Clinton (79,994) – Trump (90,447) = Trump won by 10,453 (2.7%)

Merrimack = 82,064 votes
Clinton (40,198) – Trump (37,674) = Clinton won by 2,524 (3.1%)

Strafford = 67,980 votes
Clinton (34,894) – Trump (29,072) = Clinton won by 5,822 (8.5%)

Grafton = 50,115 votes
Clinton (28,510) – Trump (19,010) = Clinton won by 9,500 (19.0%)


Counties to Watch:

Hillsborough
• Most populated county and tightest county by margin in 2016.
• Also a bellwether county since 1996.

Coos
• A county that swung 25% in favour of the Republicans as compared to 2012.
• Since the 1970s, the Republicans have never won the election overall without winning at least 48.0% of the primary vote in this county.

Rockingham
• A county that both Clinton and Trump struggled in compared to Obama and Romney.
• Likely to be a Republican hold, but will be one to keep an eye on.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:42 pm
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Maine CD-2 (1)

Past election results:
2016 = Trump (10.29%)
2012 = Obama (8.56%)
2008 = Obama (11.26%)
2004 = Kerry (6.00%)
2000 = Gore (1.87%)

Nebraska CD-2 (1)

Past election results:
2016 = Trump (2.00%)
2012 = Romney (5.15%)
2008 = Obama (1.22%)
2004 = Bush (22.00%)
2000 = Bush (18.00%)

Only relevant if the race is very tight, akin to the 2000 race for example.

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Sicks Bux Sagittarius

Hal 2003-2019


Joined: 30 Jun 2020
Location: Me Island Ome

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:47 pm
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David wrote:
I’m betting Biden landslide.

(Not actual money, mind you. Not making that mistake twice!)


I was on a betting site contemplating dropping a bundle on a Biden win. But then I started watching the Planet America special on The Drum and heard a few things that worried me out of it, particularly in regards to the battle ground states.
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:58 pm
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Senate Races

Current composition: Democratic 47, Republican 53

51 seats are needed for a majority.

Key races:
Arizona = Republican controlled
Georgia = Republican controlled
Iowa = Republican controlled
Maine = Republican controlled
Michigan = Democrat controlled
Minnesota = Democrat controlled
Montana = Republican controlled
North Carolina = Republican controlled
South Carolina = Republican controlled

Democrats are expected to gain a seat from Colorado.
Republicans are expected to gain a seat from Alabama.

Republicans have a lot more seats to defend, which tips the ledger in favour of Democrats to reclaim a majority.

My predictions:
Arizona = Democratic (flip)
Georgia = Republican
Iowa = Republican
Maine = Democratic (flip)
Michigan = Democratic
Minnesota = Democratic
Montana = Republican
North Carolina = Republican
South Carolina = Republican

Final result = Democratic 49-51 Republican

Democrats flip Colorado, Arizona and Maine
Republicans flip Alabama

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:39 pm
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Poll closures (Australian EST)

Wednesday

10:00am = Indiana (E) and Kentucky (E)

11:00am = Florida (E), Georgia, Indiana (C), Kentucky (C), New Hampshire (some polling places) South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont

11:30am = North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia

12:00pm = Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (C), Illinois, Kansas (C), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (E), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (all), New Jersey, North Dakota (C), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (C), Tennessee, Texas (C) and District of Columbia

12:30pm = Arkansas

1:00pm = Arizona, Colorado, Kansas (M), Louisiana, Michigan (C), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (M), South Dakota (M), Texas (M), Wisconsin and Wyoming

2:00pm = Idaho (M), Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon (M) and Utah

3:00pm = California, Idaho (P), Oregon (P) and Washington

4:00pm = Alaska (A)

5:00pm = Alaska (H)

E = Eastern Time Zone
C = Central Time Zone
M = Mountain Time Zone
P = Pacific Time Zone
A = Alaska Time Zone
H = Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zone

https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:04 pm
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Bellwether counties to watch:

Valencia County, New Mexico = Bellwether since 1952

Vigo County, Indiana = Bellwether since 1956

Westmoreland County, Virginia = Bellwether since 1964

Ottawa County, Ohio = Bellwether since 1964

Juneau County, Wisconsin = Bellwether since 1964

Sawyer County, Wisconsin = Bellwether since 1964

Hidalgo County, New Mexico = Bellwether since 1972

Wood County, Ohio = Bellwether since 1980

Washington County, Maine = Bellwether since 1980

Essex County, Vermont = Bellwether since 1980

Blaine County, Montana = Bellwether since 1992 (Correct between 1916-1984, 1992-Present)

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Tannin 

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Ballarat

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:36 am
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Jezza wrote:
Finally, I will outline polls closure times and I will finish off posting my final election prediction just before the count is underway.


But now you have decided to wait until the count is well and truly underway before making a prediction. Wise man.

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Pies4shaw Leo



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:41 am
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^ The count doesn't start until 11 am, our time, at the earliest.
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:34 am
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The polls missed on Florida. Otherwise they got it by and large right once you average out the various polls.

The polls picked Biden to win: he won
The polls picked Biden to win Florida: he lost

Now to the state of Georgia. The issue here is that in early January there are two Senate seats up for grabs as neither candidate got over 50% of the vote. There is a law in Georgia whereby the top two candidates get to have an election ( no other candidates are permitted to contest).

Why does this matter? It matters because Biden needs to win both to make it 50 democrat senators v the current 50 republican senators to get legislation passed. The Vice President (Kemala Harris) gets the deciding vote.

The contest is between a sitting Trump lackey & lying scumbag v a Democrat of Jewish background where the Republican used anti Semitic imagery in the recent campaign and between a multi millionaire Republican woman v a black democrat pastor.

Biden needs to win both for a fairer USA

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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: in a time zone

PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:08 pm
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^ He does indeed need to, but my impression is that the Dems will be lucky to get one at most and will most likely lose both. Going to be a rough two years for Biden's presidency if so (with likely further Senate losses in 2022 – mid-terms are often brutal for first-term administrations, though the Republicans do have more seats to defend this time around).
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