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US election 2020 (state-by-state) preview

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stui magpie Gemini

Oh, the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: Escaping Danistan

PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:25 pm
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Pretty good analysis here of how things can/could play out, why Trump doesn't need to win the popular vote to retain the Presidency and why that is completely legitimate.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-02/us-election-trump-biden-states-polling/12822296

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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:39 pm
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Welll, I wouldn't exactly say it's "legitimate", but yes, it's legal and proper so far as the law of the land goes. I'm in the camp of those who think the electoral college is a joke, and I've never been convinced by the argument that it's all fine because politicians would campaign differently under a different system – surely the key point of the exercise is that the democratic will is reflected, not that following x arcane rules gets y result (as if it were a football game or something). If direct national elections are being "won" by candidates who didn't get the most votes – without the ability to factor in preferencing or any other consideration that might show that they actually have majority support among voters – then that does seem perverse and indefensible.
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stui magpie Gemini

Oh, the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: Escaping Danistan

PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:47 pm
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We divide states up into electorates, the US allocates Electoral College spots, both based on population.

Similar principles apply, it doesn't matter whether 60% or 100% of people in a state vote for a particular candidate, you still get the same amount of seats.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:49 pm
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roar wrote:
Can you imagine what the election would be like without the covid pandemic? Trump would have waltzed it in, which just goes to show how pathetic the Democrats have become.

You mean if reality consisted only of problems that can be news cycled, distracted or bullied away?

It actually shows how pathetic the US as a declining liberal democracy and superpower. Trump's secret sauce is making bellicose fasco-protectionism acceptable again, promising to take the burden of competition and decline off people by replacing it with a fascist lashing out.

This is the most attractive and popular policy in that entire country. Why should the US compete with the rest of the world when they are superior humans of great righteousness blessed with a god-given right to take what's theirs? They're the superpower because they're superior; it speaks for itself. This whole business of competition and rules has had its day, and besides it's getting all too hard now peasant countries are escaping dire poverty.

There is no imaginary opposition party and no imaginary opposition policy that can beat that opiate. It's as intoxicating as that other great fasco-protectionism, communist revolution. The country is barely holding on and far closer to even greater catastrophe than 200,000 dead.

Hopeless wealth gaps and toxic fundamentalist ideologies eventually meet.

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:54 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
Pretty good analysis here of how things can/could play out, why Trump doesn't need to win the popular vote to retain the Presidency and why that is completely legitimate.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-02/us-election-trump-biden-states-polling/12822296


It's not the electoral colleges but how the states deliberately operate against minorities in being able to vote in a clear safe and unimpeded manner

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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: in a time zone

PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:13 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
We divide states up into electorates, the US allocates Electoral College spots, both based on population.

Similar principles apply, it doesn't matter whether 60% or 100% of people in a state vote for a particular candidate, you still get the same amount of seats.


I understand it in our case because we're electing representatives, who in turn form government – not, as we're often reminded, electing a prime minister. But the electoral college isn't like that: state electors don't run for office, and only function as conduits for the direct presidential vote (and, for that matter, the number of electors is loosely based on population anyway, hence why California gets 18 times as many electoral college votes as Wyoming). So while I kind of understand the notion of "weighting" votes in order to achieve equivalent state representation (as occurs in the Senate, which here and in the US is a body explicitly set up for that purpose), it doesn't make any sense to me to do that in a direct presidential election.

It's like a double rounding exercise in which 3.46 becomes 3.5 which then becomes 4, when it really could have (and should have) been rounded down to 3 to begin with. It seems to serve a pretty opaque purpose at best.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:33 pm
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GEORGIA (16)


Interesting Trivia:
• Like Arizona, Georgia is becoming an increasingly purple state.
• The capital of Georgia, Atlanta hosted the Olympic Games in 1996.
• The Democrats last won the state in 1992.

Current Composition:
Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
House: 9 Republican, 4 Democratic
Senate: 2 Republican
Governor = Brian Kemp (Republican)

Registered Voters:
• Georgia voters do not register by party.
TOTAL = 7,587,625 as of October 6 2020

https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/georgia_easy_voter_registration_options_break_new_records

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (5.09%)
• 2012 = Romney (7.82%)
• 2008 = McCain (5.20%)
• 2004 = Bush (16.60%)
• 2000 = Bush (11.69%)
• 1996 = Dole (1.17%)

2016 Election Result:
Clinton = 1,877,963 (45.35%)
Trump = 2,089,104 (50.44%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 211,141 votes (5.09%)

Total = 4,146,825
• Voted for major parties = 95.79%
• Voted for minor parties = 4.21%

Turnout of registered voters
2016 = 62.47%
2012 = 64.28%
2008 = 68.31%
2004 = 66.68%
2000 = 58.03%

2016 Primaries:
Clinton = 545,674 (71.30%) – Democratic = 765,366
Trump = 502,994 (38.81%) – Republican = 1,295,964

2020 Primaries:
Biden = 922,177 (84.86%) – Democratic = 1,086,729
Trump = 947,352 (100.00%) – Republican = 947,352

2020 Predictions:
• All tossup, except for two (Inside Election and 538), which have the Democrats as Tilt or Lean Democrat.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
270 to win = Biden 49.4 - 48.2 Trump = Biden (1.2)
RCP = Biden 47.8 - 47.4 Trump = Biden (0.4)
538 = Biden 49.9 - 49.3 Trump = Biden (0.6)

Bellwether Counties:
• No significant bellwether counties.
• Worth keeping an eye on Early, Baldwin and Sumter County.

Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016):
Baker
Dooly
Early
Peach
Quitman
Twiggs

Counties won by Romney (2012) that swung to Clinton (2016):
Cobb
Gwinnett
Henry


Top 5 Tightest County Races in 2016:

Washington = Clinton 4,200 (49.7%) – 4,149 (49.1%) Trump
Clinton won by 51 votes (0.6%)

Twiggs = Clinton 1,971 (48.6%) – 2,035 (50.2%) Trump
Trump won by 64 votes (1.6%)
Trump flips the county

Baldwin = Clinton 7,970 (49.6%) – 7,697 (47.9%) Trump
Clinton won by 273 votes (1.7%)

Dooly = Clinton 1,872 (48.5%) – 1,951 (50.6%) Trump
Trump won by 79 votes (2.1%)
Trump flips the county

Cobb = Clinton 160,121 (48.9%) – 152,912 (46.7%) Trump
Clinton won by 7,209 votes (2.2%)
Clinton flips the county


Most Populated County (by results):

Fulton = 430,599 votes
Clinton (297,051) – Trump (117,783) = Clinton won by 179,268 (41.6%)

Cobb = 327,499 votes
Clinton (160,121) – Trump (152,912) = Clinton won by 7,209 (2.2%)

Gwinnett = 325,636 votes
Clinton (166,153) – Trump (146,989) = Clinton won by 19,164 (4.9%)

DeKalb = 312,504 votes
Clinton (251,370) – Trump (51,468) = Clinton won by 199,902 (64.0%)

Chatham = 111,481 votes
Clinton (62,290) – Trump (45,688) = Clinton won by 16,602 (14.9%)


Counties to Watch:

Gwinnett
• Located in the Atlanta suburbs, it was once a Republican stronghold, but the Democrats were able to flip the state in 2016.
• If Biden’s going to win Georgia, he likely needs to win 60% of votes in this county. Clinton won 51% in 2016.

Cobb
• Similar to Gwinnett, this is another county the Democrats were able to flip in their favour narrowly.
• Biden needs to expand the lead that Clinton built in 2016.

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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:25 pm
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I think this is one of those states where it's fair to say that if Biden even comes close to winning it, it's good night Irene.
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:27 pm
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^ I think Trump wins it by 3-5%.
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:04 pm
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OHIO (18]


Interesting Trivia:
• Bellwether state since 1964.
• No Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio.
• Since 1896, there have been two elections where the majority of Ohioans voted for the losing presidential candidate (in 1944 and 1960).

Current Composition:
Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
House: 12 Republican, 4 Democratic
Senate: 1 Democratic, 1 Republican
Governor = Mike DeWine (Republican)

Registered Voters:
• Ohio voters do not register by party.
TOTAL = 7,774,767

https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/oh

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (8.13%)
• 2012 = Obama (2.98%)
• 2008 = Obama (4.57%)
• 2004 = Bush (2.10%)
• 2000 = Bush (3.51%)
• 1996 = Clinton (6.36%)

2016 Election Result:
Clinton = 2,394,164 (43.56%)
Trump = 2,841,005 (51.69%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 446,841 votes (8.13%)

Total = 5,496,487
• Voted for major parties = 95.25%
• Voted for minor parties = 4.75%

Turnout
2016 = 71.33%
2012 = 70.54%
2008 = 67.30%
2004 = 65.30%

2016 Primaries:
Clinton = 696,681 (56.12%) – Democratic = 1,241,478
Trump = 933,886 (46.95%) – Republican = 1,988,960

2020 Primaries:
Biden = 647,284 (72.37%) – Democratic = 894,383
Trump = 682,845 (100.00%) – Republican = 682,845

2020 Predictions:
• All pollsters have it as a tossup.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
270 to win = Biden 48.1 - 49.0 Trump = Trump (0.9)
RCP = Biden 46.8 - 47.0 Trump = Trump (0.2)
538 = Biden 49.5 - 49.5 Trump = Tie (0.0)

Bellwether Counties:
Ottawa = Bellwether since 1964
Wood = Bellwether since 1980
Sandusky = Bellwether since 1996
Tuscarawas = Three misses since 1912 (bellwether between 1972-2008).

Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016):
Ashtabula
Erie
Montgomery
Ottawa
Portage
Sandusky
Stark
Trumbull
Wood

Top 5 Tightest County Races in 2016:

Lorain = Clinton 66,949 (47.6%) – 66,818 (47.5%) Trump
Clinton won by 131 votes (0.1%)

Montgomery = Clinton 122,016 (47.2%) – 123,909 (48.0%) Trump
Trump won by 1,893 votes (0.8%)
Trump flips the county

Mahoning = Clinton 57,381 (49.9%) – 53,616 (46.6%) Trump
Clinton won by 3,765 votes (3.3%)

Trumbull = Clinton 43,014 (44.8%) – 49,024 (51.1%) Trump
Trump won by 6,010 votes (6.3%)
Trump flips the county

Wood = Clinton 27,318 (42.5%) – 32,498 (50.5%) Trump
Trump won by 5,180 votes (8.0%)
Trump flips the county


Most Populated County (by results):

Cuyahoga = 603,822 votes
Clinton (398,271) – Trump (184,211) = Clinton won by 214,060 (35.5%)

Franklin = 581,140 votes
Clinton (351,198) – Trump (199,331) = Clinton won by 151,867 (26.1%)

Hamilton = 409,109 votes
Clinton (215,719) – Trump (173,665) = Clinton won by 42,054 (10.2%)

Montgomery = 258,301 votes
Clinton (122,016) – Trump (123,909) = Trump won by 1,893 (0.8%)

Summit = 257,979 votes
Clinton (134,256) – Trump (112,026) = Clinton won by 22,330 (8.6%)


Counties to Watch:

Ottawa and Wood
• Both bellwether counties for at least 40 years, so that alone makes them significant counties.

Ashtabula, Trumbull and Mahoning
• Located in eastern Ohio, bordering western Pennsylvania, which is renowned for it’s industrial base.
• All blue-collar counties that have swung away from the Democrats and into the Republicans’ hands in 2016 and seemed to have stayed that way based on 2018 mid term results.
• Will be interesting if Biden can claw back votes from Trump in these counties.

Franklin and Cuyahoga
• Two largest counties in the state that the Democrats will need to win by big margins to have any chance of regaining the state.

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Last edited by Jezza on Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:17 pm
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Only have a few states left to cover.

Will finish off covering Texas, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada. I might also do a quick summary for Maine CD-2 and Nebraska CD-2 as well.

Won't bother covering the House elections as the Democrats are very likely to win a majority again.

I will quickly go over the close Senate races as these key races will determine which party holds the balance of power. Democrats are slight favourites as it stands, but it will be close either way.

Finally, I will outline polls closure times and I will finish off posting my final election prediction just before the count is underway.

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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:26 am
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Thanks Jezza! Great work.
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:32 am
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Texas (38]


Interesting Trivia:
• Second largest state by area and population.
• The Democrats last won the state in 1976, when Jimmy Carter was elected President.
• Texas is gradually becoming a battleground state with each election cycle, with it being projected to be a key battleground state by the end of this decade.

Current Composition:
Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
House: 23 Republican, 13 Democratic
Senate: 2 Republican
Governor = Greg Abbott (Republican)

Registered Voters:
As of October 5 2020:
• Texas voters do not register by party.
TOTAL = 16,955,519

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/16/texas-2020-registered-voters/

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (8.99%)
• 2012 = Romney (15.79%)
• 2008 = McCain (11.77%)
• 2004 = Bush (22.87%)
• 2000 = Bush (21.32%)
• 1996 = Dole (4.93%)

2016 Election Result:
Clinton = 3,877,868 (43.24%)
Trump = 4,685,047 (52.23%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 807,179 votes (8.99%)

Total = 8,969,226
• Voted for major parties = 95.47%
• Voted for minor parties = 4.53%

Turnout of registered voters
2016 = 59.40%
2012 = 58.60%
2008 = 59.50%
2004 = 56.57%

2016 Primaries:
Clinton = 936,004 (65.19%) – Democratic = 1,435,895
Trump = 758,762 (26.75%) – Republican = 2,836,488

2020 Primaries:
Biden = 725,562 (34.64%) – Democratic = 2,094,428
Trump = 1,898,664 (94.13%) – Republican = 2,017,167

2020 Predictions:
• Either tossup or Lean Republican by all pollsters.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
270 to win = Biden 47.9 - 49.7 Trump = Trump (1.8]
RCP = Biden 46.5 - 47.7 Trump = Trump (1.2)
538 = Biden 48.9 - 50.2 Trump = Trump (1.3)

Bellwether Counties:
Bexar and Val Verde (Clinton won both counties in 2016), but both were bellwether counties between 1972-2012.

Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016):
Jefferson

Counties won by Romney (2012) that swung to Clinton (2016):
Fort Bend
Kenedy


Top 5 Tightest County Races in 2016:

Jefferson = Clinton 42,443 (48.4%) – 42,862 (48.9%) Trump
Trump won by 419 votes (0.5%)
Trump flips the county

Hays = Clinton 33,224 (46.0%) – 33,826 (46.9%) Trump
Trump won by 602 votes (0.9%)

Nueces = Clinton 49,198 (47.1%) – 50,766 (48.6%) Trump
Trump won by 1,568 votes (1.5%)

Kleberg = Clinton 4,716 (49.6%) – 4,367 (45.9%) Trump
Clinton won by 349 votes (3.7%)

Brewster = Clinton 1,873 (44.1%) – 2,077 (48.9%) Trump
Trump won by 204 votes (4.8%)


Most Populated County (by results):

Harris = 1,312,112 votes
Clinton (707,914) – Trump (545,955) = Clinton won by 161,959 (12.4%)

Dallas = 758,973 votes
Clinton (461,080) – Trump (262,945) = Clinton won by 198,135 (26.2%)

Tarrant = 668,514 votes
Clinton (288,392) – Trump (345,421) = Trump won by 57,529 (8.6%)

Bexar = 589,645 votes
Clinton (319,550) – Trump (240,333) = Clinton won by 79,217 (13.4%)

Travis = 468,720 votes
Clinton (308,260) – Trump (127,209) = Clinton won by 181,051 (38.7%)


Counties to Watch:

Tarrant
• Located in the city of Fort Worth, and the third largest county in Texas
• Trump won the county by 8.6% in 2016 which was similar to the statewide margin, so it will give us a good sense of how close the race is this year.

Collin
• A county that has had a very high early voting turnout so far.
• Been a Republican stronghold since 1968, but with changing demographics the county is starting to become more competitive for the Democrats

Harris and Dallas
• Safe Democrat counties.
• The interest will be the margins of these counties as they’ve become increasingly blue with each election cycle.

Jefferson
• A small county bordering Louisiana.
• Trump was the first Republican to flip this county narrowly since 1972 when Nixon won re-election in a landslide.
• The Democrat primary vote has been slowly falling since 2000.
• Question remains whether Trump can retain or not.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:08 pm
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IOWA (6)


Interesting Trivia:
• Located in the heart of the “Corn Belt” region.
• Trump’s winning margin in 2016 was the biggest winning margin for a Republican since 1980 when Reagan was elected President.

Current Composition:
Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
House: 3 Democratic, 1 Republican
Senate: 2 Republican
Governor = Kim Reynolds (Republican)

All Registered Voters:
As of November 2 2020
Democratic = 744,475 (33.2%)
Republican = 755,022 (33.6%)
Minor Party = 19,309 (0.9%)
Independent = 726,290 (32.4%)
TOTAL = 2,245,096

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2020/CoNov20.pdf

Democrats have increased their voter registration by 61,585 since 2016.
Republicans have increased their voter registration by 53,748 since 2016.

Democrats have a net voter registration gain of 8,837 (0.4%) since 2016.

Overall, voter registration has increased by 73,931 since 2016 across the board, whether someone is registered with a party or not.

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (9.41%)
• 2012 = Obama (5.81%)
• 2008 = Obama (9.54%)
• 2004 = Bush (0.67%)
• 2000 = Gore (0.32%)
• 1996 = Clinton (10.34%)

2016 Election Result:
Clinton = 653,669 (41.74%)
Trump = 800,983 (51.15%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 147,314 votes (9.31%)

Total = 1,566,031
• Voted for major parties = 92.90%
• Voted for minor parties = 7.11%

Turnout among registered voters
2016 = 72.77%
2012 = 73.28%

2016 Primaries:
Clinton = 700.47 state delegate equivalent (49.84%) – Democratic = 1,405.48 state delegate equivalent
Trump = 45,427 (24.30%) – Republican = 186,932

2020 Primaries:
Biden = 23,605 (13.70%) – Democratic = 172,300
Trump = 31,465 (97.10%) – Republican = 32,389

**Democrats have a complex primary system, which is different to other states primaries they conduct.

2020 Predictions:
• All tossup, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball has it as Lean Republican.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
270 to win = Biden 48.2 - 49.0 Trump = Trump (0.8]
RCP = Biden 45.8 - 47.2 Trump = Trump (1.4)
538 = Biden 48.5 - 50.0 Trump = Trump (1.5)

Bellwether Counties:
Bremar = Bellwether county since 1980
Union = Bellwether county since 1992
Marshall = Bellwether county since 1992
Allamakee = Bellwether county since 1996

Counties Obama (2012) won that swung to Trump (2016):
Allamakee
Boone
Bremer
Buchanan
Cedar
Cerro Gordo
Chickasaw
Clarke
Clayton
Clinton
Des Moines
Dubuque
Fayette
Floyd
Howard
Jackson
Jasper
Jefferson
Jones
Lee
Louisa
Marshall
Mitchell
Muscatine
Poweshiek
Tama
Union
Wapello
Webster
Winneshiek
Woodbury
Worth

Top 5 Tightest County Races in 2016:

Jefferson = Clinton 3,710 (45.5%) – 3,748 (46.0%) Trump
Trump won by 38 votes (0.5%)
Trump flips the county

Winneshiek = Clinton 5,254 (46.2%) – 5,344 (47.0%) Trump
Trump won by 90 votes (0.8%)
Trump flips the county

Dubuque = Clinton 22,850 (46.0%) – 23,460 (47.2%) Trump
Trump won by 610 votes (1.2%)
Trump flips the county

Scott = Clinton 40,440 (46.9%) – 39,149 (45.4%) Trump
Clinton won by 1,291 votes (1.5%)

Clinton = Clinton 10,095 (43.8%) – 11,276 (48.8%) Trump
Trump won by 1,181 votes (5.0%)
Trump flips the county


Most Populated County (by results):

Polk = 231,555 votes
Clinton (119,804) – Trump (93,492) = Clinton won by 26,312 (11.3%)

Linn = 117,098 votes
Clinton (58,935) – Trump (48,390) = Clinton won by 10,545 (9.0%)

Scott = 86,220 votes
Clinton (40,440) – Trump (39,149) = Clinton won by 1,291 (1.5%)

Johnson = 76,940 votes
Clinton (50,200) – Trump (21,044) = Clinton won by 29,156 (37.9%)

Black Hawk = 64,405 votes
Clinton (32,233) – Trump (27,476) = Clinton won by 4,757 (7.4%)


Counties to Watch:

Bremar
• Bellwether county since 1980.

Dubuque
• Located in eastern Iowa, bordering Wisconsin.
• Blue-collar county that flipped to Trump after being won by Obama twice in 2008 and 2012.

Scott
• Clinton won this county narrowly, but it swung 13% away from the Democrats compared to 2012.
• If Trump performs well again in this county, I think it’s safe to assume he’ll win the state.

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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:18 pm
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Seems like a bit of a bellwether state (which surprises me, as I don't remember it being considered in play for Clinton last time around).
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