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US election 2020 (state-by-state) preview

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:38 pm
Post subject: US election 2020 (state-by-state) previewReply with quote

Didn't want to clog the other election thread up unnecessarily as I hope this thread will be largely devoted to exploring electoral trends, data and looking at specific counties rather than it being one of opinion on the candidates and their policies.

As planned, I'm going to cover several key states that both candidates must win to the Presidency. Obviously, 270 electoral college votes is required to win the Presidency.

Before I start on the first state I'll be covering (Florida), I will go through the safe states for both parties. The states where both candidates are a near certainty of winning.

Democratic (Biden) = 212
- California (55)
- New York (29)
- Illinois (20)
- New Jersey (14)
- Virginia (13)
- Washington (12)
- Massachusetts (11)
- Maryland (10)
- Colorado (9)
- Oregon (7)
- Connecticut (7)
- New Mexico (5)
- Hawaii (4)
- Rhode Island (4)
- Vermont (3)
- Delaware (3)
- District of Columbia (3)
- Maine (2)
- Maine 1st District (1)

I was a little apprehensive counting Virginia and Colorado as near certainties for Biden, but I can't see Trump winning those states in any circumstances.

Republican (Trump) = 125
- Indiana (11)
- Tennessee (11)
- Missouri (10)
- Alabama (9)
- South Carolina (9)
- Kentucky (8]
- Louisiana (8]
- Oklahoma (7)
- Arkansas (6)
- Kansas (6)
- Mississippi (6)
- Utah (6)
- West Virginia (5)
- Idaho (4)
- Alaska (3)
- Montana (3)
- North Dakota (3)
- South Dakota (3)
- Wyoming (3)
- Nebraska (2)
- Nebraska 1st District (1)
- Nebraska 3rd District (1)

I was a little apprehensive counting South Carolina, Alaska and Montana as near certainties for Trump, but I don't see a path where Biden wins those three states. Democrats haven't won SC (since 1976), Alaska (since 1968) and Montana (since 1992) in the last quarter of a century.

Now there's a variability of undecided states with some being closer than others, but I can't say with 100% confidence they'll favour one candidate over the other.

For example, Texas leans Republican and Minnesota leans Democrat, but I can't say with near certainty that the results will transpire that way so I've left them as undecided. Whereas the state of Florida is a genuine tossup state, which could go 50/50 either way.

Undecided = 201
- Texas (38]
- Florida (29)
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Ohio (18]
- Georgia (16)
- Michigan (16)
- North Carolina (15)
- Arizona (11)
- Minnesota (10)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Iowa (6)
- Nevada (6)
- New Hampshire (4)
- Maine 2nd District (1)
- Nebraska 2nd District (1)

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:25 pm
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Thanks for ur hard yards here Jezza. Well done.

One of the issues that is not included (and it’s far too detailed to go into) is how each state operates the process of voting.

For example in Texas the Governor a republican is setting it up so that the process disenfranchises minorities. Each state has it’s own system and as we know can manipulate the system to make more difficult for all voters to have unencumbered access to actually vote.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2020/10/04/texas-governor-sued-for-removing-mail-in-ballot-drop-boxes-n1003062

We might have issues in Australia with voting but access per se is not an issue.

I also think Florida will go Republican because of the extreme right wing religious conservative Latino vote.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:40 pm
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^ Thanks, WPT.

It's hard to quantify the issues around voter suppression, gerrymandering, voter fraud and etc especially with the electoral process being dictated by individual states with different rules and processes. In Australia, we have the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) but there's no equivalent body in the US.

In relation to Florida, I have it leaning Republican as well. The Cuban-American vote is heavily swayed toward the Republicans. The Biden camp is aiming to capture the age 65+ voters who have been impacted by COVID and haven't been impressed with Trump's response to the pandemic. It'll be a tight race, whoever wins it.

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:25 pm
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Thanks Jezza! Any idea what the Democrats' best chances in the "undecided" list are? I'm guessing Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania?
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:59 pm
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David wrote:
Thanks Jezza! Any idea what the Democrats' best chances in the "undecided" list are? I'm guessing Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania?

At this stage, I could see them flipping Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska 2nd District and maybe Arizona. This would win them the election if it happened provided they hold all the states they won in 2016.

Michigan is the most likely to flip, followed by Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Wisconsin will be interesting especially with the fallout from the Kenosha riots and whether this will impact the vote either way.

I think the races in Nevada and Minnesota are tighter than the polls suggest, particularly in Minnesota. Trump has held several rallies in Minnesota, which to me suggests the GOP has seen internal polling giving them a fighting chance of winning. Same goes for Nevada where Trump has held several rallies also.

In saying that, Minnesota has been a Democratic state since 1972, even in 1984 when Reagan won 49 states.

New Hampshire (Clinton only won it by 0.4% and it was the closest race in 2016) could be a wildcard also, though I think Biden wins it by about 4-5%.

I have Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Maine 2nd District.

The closest state is Arizona. May as well flip a coin as to who wins it.

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:28 pm
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Jezza wrote:
I have Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Maine 2nd District.


Interesting – so that takes Trump to 248, and still needing to win two or three of Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10) and Nevada (6) to make up the remaining 22, if we take those to be the key swing states. Looks like it'll be a close race either way.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:38 pm
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FLORIDA (29)


Interesting Trivia:
• Third most populated state behind only California and Texas.
• Bellwether state since 1996.
• Considered the biggest tipping point state of the election.
• Donald Trump’s home state is now Florida after changing his primary place of residence in 2019.
• Last time a Republican won the presidency without winning Florida was Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Current Composition:
Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
House: 14 Republican, 13 Democratic
Senate: 2 Republican
Governor = Ron De Santis (Republican)

Active Registered Voters:
As of August 31 2020:
Democratic = 5,203,795 (37.0%)
Republican = 5,020,199 (35.7%)
Minor Party = 188,587 (1.3%)
Independent = 3,653,046 (26.0%)
TOTAL = 14,065,627

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Democrats have increased their voter registration by 298,090 since 2016.
Republicans have increased their voter registration by 444,922 since 2016.

Republicans have a net voter registration gain of 146,832 (1.3%) since 2016.

Overall, voter registration has increased by 1,106,142 since 2016 across the board, whether someone is registered with a party or not.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (1.20%)
• 2012 = Obama (0.88%)
• 2008 = Obama (2.81%)
• 2004 = Bush (5.01%)
• 2000 = Bush (0.01%)
• 1996 = Clinton (5.70%)

2016 Election Result:
Clinton = 4,504,975 (47.82%)
Trump = 4,617,886 (49.02%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 112,911 votes (1.20%)

Total = 9,420,039
• Voted for major parties = 96.84%
• Voted for minor parties = 3.15%

2016 Voter Turnout = 74.48%
• 2012 = 72%
• 2008 = 75%
• 2004 = 74%
• 2000 = 70%
• 1996 = 67%

2016 Primaries:
Clinton = 1,101,414 (64.44%) – Democratic = 1,709,183
Trump = 1,079,870 (45.72%) – Republican = 2,361,805

2020 Primaries:
Biden = 1,077,375 (61.95%) – Democratic = 1,739,214
Trump = 1,162,984 (93.79%) – Republican = 1,239,939

2020 Predictions (as of October 5 2020):
• The Cook Political Report = Tossup
Inside Elections = Tilt
• Sabato’s Crystal Ball = Tossup
• Politico = Tossup
• RCP = Tossup
Niskanen = Likely
• CNN = Tossup
The Economist = Lean
• CBS News = Tossup
• 270towin = Tossup
ABC News = Lean
NPR = Lean
NBC = Lean
538 = Lean

Latest 2020 Aggregate Polls:
270 to win = Biden 50.8 – 46.9 Trump = Biden (3.9)
RCP = Biden 48.0 – 44.3 Trump = Biden (3.7)
538 = Biden 51.8 – 47.4 Trump = Biden (3.6)

Bellwether Counties:
Flagler = Two misses since 1972 (in 2000 and 2012).
Pinellas = Bellwether county since 2004 (only three misses since 1952).

Counties with more registered Democrats, but Trump won in 2016:
Calhoun
Duval
Franklin
Hamilton
Hendry
Jefferson
Liberty
Madison
Pinellas
St. Lucie

Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016):
Jefferson
Monroe
Pinellas
St. Lucie

Top 10 Tightest County Races in 2016:

Pinellas = Clinton 233,701 (47.5%) – 239,201 (48.6%) Trump
Trump won by 5,500 votes (1.1%)
Trump flips the county

Duval = Clinton 205,704 (47.5%) – 211,672 (48.9%)
Trump won by 5,968 votes (1.4%) Trump

Seminole = Clinton 105,914 (47.1%) – 109,443 (48.7%) Trump
Trump won by 3,529 votes (1.6%)

St Lucie = Clinton 66,881 (47.5%) – 70,289 (49.9%) Trump
Trump won by 3,408 votes (2.4%)
Trump flips the county

Jefferson = Clinton 3,541 (46.3%) – 3,930 (51.4%) Trump
Trump won by 389 votes (5.1%)
Trump flips the county

Hillsborough = Clinton 307,896 (51.5%) – 266,870 (44.7%) Trump
Clinton won by 41,026 votes (6.8%)

Monroe = Clinton 18,971 (44.7%) – 21,904 (51.6) Trump
Trump won by 2,933 votes (6.9%)
Trump flips the county

Sarasota = Clinton 97,870 (42.7%) – 124,438 (54.3%) Trump
Trump won by 26,568 votes (11.6%)

Volusia = Clinton 109,091 (41.8%) – Trump (54.8%) Trump
Trump won by 33,916 votes (13.0%)

Polk = Clinton 117,433 (41.3%) – 157,430 (55.4%) Trump
Trump won by 39,997 votes (14.1%)


Most Populated County (by 2016 results):

Miami-Dade = 980,204 votes
Clinton (624,146) – Trump (333,999) = Clinton won by 290,147 (29.6%)

Broward = 831,951 votes
Clinton (553,520) – Trump (260,951) = Clinton won by 292,369 (35.1%)

Palm Beach = 662,332 votes
Clinton (374,673) – Trump (272,402) = Clinton won by 102,271 (15.5%)

Hillsborough = 597,660 votes
Clinton (307,896) – Trump (266,870) = Clinton won by 41,026 (6.8%)

Orange = 546,275 votes
Clinton (329,894) – Trump (195,216) = Clinton won by 134,678 (24.5%)

Pinellas = 492,403 votes
Clinton (233,701) – Trump (239,201) = Trump won by 5,500 (1.1%)

Duval = 432,695 votes
Clinton (205,704) – Trump (211,672) = Trump won by 5,968 (1.4%)

Lee = 326,420 votes
Clinton (124,908) – Trump (191,551) = Trump won by 66,643 (20.4%)

Brevard = 314,752 votes
Clinton (119,679) – Trump (181,848) = Trump won by 62,169 (19.8%)

Polk = 284,314 votes
Clinton (117,433) – Trump (157,430) = Trump won by 39,997 (14.1%)


Counties to Watch:

Miami-Dade
• Most populated county with a large Cuban population.
• Democrats will win the county, but the margin will be interesting.
• If the Democrats win by 20-25% rather than 30% or more, Trump is a big chance of winning the state again.
• If it's a 30%+ lead, Democrats are a good chance of flipping the state.

Pinellas
• Sixth most populated county in Florida, so nearly 700,000 votes are up for grabs.
• Trump swung the county in his favour in 2016.
• Voter registration favours the Democrats by 6,670 votes.
• Been a bellwether county since 2004, with only three misses since 1952.
• Closest county by margin in the 2016 race.
• Arguably the most important county in the State.
• A part of the I-4 Corridor (see below).

Duval
• More registered Democrats than Republicans, though Democrats in this county are considered more “conservative”. Other counties with Democratic majority voter registrations are more “liberal-leaning”.
• Becoming an increasingly purple county with each election cycle.
• Located within Jacksonville, the most populous city in the state.
• 645,938 voters in this county.
• Second closest county in the 2016 race.
• In the 2018 Gubernatorial election, Democrats won the county by 16,700 votes.
• Last time the Democrats won the majority of the votes in the county for a presidential election was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter was elected President.
• Interesting article on Duval found below.

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/09/899944240/how-this-conservative-florida-county-became-a-surprise-2020-battleground

Interstate 4 Corridor
- Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia
- Whoever wins the majority of these 7 counties most likely wins the state.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/politics/2020/09/14/why-is-florida-important-to-2020-election-historically-presidents-dont-win-without-the-sunshine-state/

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Last edited by Jezza on Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:48 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:43 pm
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David wrote:
Jezza wrote:
I have Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Maine 2nd District.


Interesting – so that takes Trump to 248, and still needing to win two or three of Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10) and Nevada (6) to make up the remaining 22, if we take those to be the key swing states. Looks like it'll be a close race either way.

Biden is favourite to win all the above states according to the polling.

Likely to least likely to win at this stage in my opinion:
1. Nevada
2. Michigan
3. Minnesota
4. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (same likelihood)
5. Arizona

Also, I've just completed the Florida preview. If there's too much information, I'm happy to condense it.

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stui magpie Gemini

Oh, the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: Escaping Danistan

PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:10 am
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Interesting detail, thanks Jezza
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Tannin 

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:42 am
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I reckon Florida is very likely to swing away from Trump, and swing hard. Florida has a huge retired population, and the over-65s are very, very concerned by Trump's failure to tackle Covid. Biden leads easily in recent polls of that age bracket.

(Sorry, no link. I read up on this only a few days ago. But where? Financial Review? ABC? Age/SMH? Guardian? Can't remember!)

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:17 pm
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Tannin wrote:
I reckon Florida is very likely to swing away from Trump, and swing hard. Florida has a huge retired population, and the over-65s are very, very concerned by Trump's failure to tackle Covid. Biden leads easily in recent polls of that age bracket.

(Sorry, no link. I read up on this only a few days ago. But where? Financial Review? ABC? Age/SMH? Guardian? Can't remember!)


I hope you're right. However the conservative right wing Cubans are more organized. No one one their right mind should vote for Trump just based on his past and present Covid-19 behaviour.

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David Libra

Speak about destruction


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:42 pm
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Florida has seemingly been moving Republican of late, and is arguably no longer the bellwether state it once was. I guess we'll see what transpires this time around, but I have a feeling Biden might end up winning without it.
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Tannin 

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Ballarat

PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:45 pm
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Indeed, WPT. However there are three time as as many over-65s in Florida as there are Cubans - 21% of the state as opposed to 6.5% who are Cuban. If we count all Latinos - though I don't know why we should - seniors still outnumber them, albeit narrowly.

Overall, Latino voters tend to split around 60-40 in favour of the Democrats. Last time around, Trump did much worse than that, getting only 28%. He is expected to improve modestly on that this time, and is doing very well in Florida where he is actually narrowly leading in the polls of Latino voters. (50 to 46 recently. Presumably this unusually high percentage is because of the many Cubans there.)

Nevertheless, a narrow Latino win in Florida doesn't look likely to be enough to outweigh the expected large majority of over-65s voting for better health policy.

Recent national over-65 polls give Biden a crushing 27 point lead (NBC: 62% to 35%) and a 21 point lead (CNN: 60% to 39%). A recent state-based seniors poll in Michigan shows a 30% Biden lead (Detroit News: 59% to 29%) and an incredible 22 point anti-Trump swing since late last year.

https://fortune.com/2020/10/09/trump-biden-polls-senior-citizens-older-voters-65-polling-swing-battleground-states/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/01/seniors-trump-biden-coronavirus-us-election-older

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watt price tully Scorpio



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:20 pm
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Speaking of ehtnic groups the Jewish vote for the Democrats is about 70% which is a consistent pattern historically including 4 years ago.

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-voting-record-in-u-s-presidential-elections

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/HkyVzG4Pv

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:21 pm
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Thanks for the two links, Tannin. Interesting read.

I think the over-65 vote will determine Biden's fate in Florida. If enough of them pivot away from Trump, it will be very interesting and might decide the election right there and then as without Florida, Trump's path to 270 will become very difficult to foresee.

Two things that go in Trump's favour is the organised Cuban vote as WPT has mentioned, and the high voter registration among Republicans since 2016. Going all the way back to 1996, the Democrats have never won Florida without having a 4.5% (or 400,000 lead) advantage on voter registration.

Florida Voter Registration Data:

- 1996 = Democratic (430,773 lead) = 5.3% lead
Clinton won by 302,334 votes (5.7%)

- 2000 = Democratic (379,086 lead) = 4.3% lead
Bush won by 537 votes (0.01%)

- 2004 = Democratic (367,884 lead) = 3.6% lead
Bush won by 380,978 votes (5.0%)

- 2008 = Democratic (694,147 lead) = 6.1% lead
Obama won by 236,148 votes (2.8%)

- 2012 = Democratic (558,272 lead) = 4.7% lead
Obama won by 74,309 votes (0.9%)

- 2016 = Democratic (330,428 lead) = 2.6% lead
Trump won by 112,911 votes (1.2%)

- 2020 = Democratic (183,596 lead) = 1.3% lead
?

If the turnout is roughly 75% and the trends of previous elections continue, it's not beyond the realms of impossibility that Trump wins Florida by 2-3%.

Up next, I'll be covering North Carolina.

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