 |
|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
|
| Post subject: |  |
|
| Tannin wrote: | It won't be close. Not even close to being close. Trump is massively unpopular. His base is super keen, but they only get one vote each, and numerically, Trump's base is hugely outnumbered.
The reason Trump got in in the first place is that a huge number of Democrat voters couldn't stand Clinton and didn't bother turning up to vote. Trump got a significantly lower vote than previous Republican candidates like Romney.
This time around, there are two things going on: (i) the Democrats have put up an acceptable candidate, possibly even a very good one. No-one hates Biden the way they hated the execrable Clinton. (Except David, of course, but he doesn't get a vote.) (ii) The broad mass of not-so-interested-in-politics America is much, much more likely to vote, and the'll be voting Trump out.
Against that, Trumps rabid supporters can do nothing other than stand around polling places holding guns and threatening violence (which they will do), disenfranchise likely Democrat voters (which they have already done), and make voting as difficult, unpleasant and dangerous as possible. (Lots of progress on that front too.)
None of these things will be anywhere near enough to outweigh the huge numbers voting to oust Trump. Trump and his cronies will play every dirty trick in the book, but the numbers against them are overwhelming. We saw that in the mid-terms, and we will see the same thing on steroids now. |
I'm not as confident needless to say I'm a Collingwood supporter. I've seen the good guys snatch defeat from the jaws of victory far too often: See 2016 US presidential election.
_________________
“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
|
|
|
 |
watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
From 538 30/10/2020 re Florida. Trump has to win it if he is to win, Biden doesn't have to win it to win. If Biden does win it's goodnight Irene.
Added yesterday (29/10/2020)
DATES POLLSTER SAMPLE RESULT NET RESULT
President: general election Fla.
OCT 28-29, 2020, Public Policy Polling*941 V Biden 52% 45%Trump. Biden +7
President: general election Fla.
OCT 15-29, 2020. D- SurveyMonkey 7,726 LV Biden 48%, 50% Trump Trump +2
President: general election Fla.
OCT 15-29, 2020. D- SurveyMonkey 7,726 RV Biden 49%, 48% Trump. Biden +1
President: general election Fla.
OCT 25-28, 2020. C- Trafalgar Group* 1,088 LV, Biden 47%, More Trump +3
President: general election Fla.
OCT 23-26, 2020. D-Swayable 605, LV Biden 46% More Trump +4
President: general election Fla.
OCT 16-26, 2020. B, YouGov, 1,200, LV, Biden 48% ,46% Trump. Biden, +2
_________________
“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Biden is largely irrelevent here, the election is about Trump/ People will either vote for Trump or vote against him (hence vote for Biden)
Biden will get his votes from people who just vote democrat and people who are voting against Trump, he'll get very few votes because someone actually wants to vote for Joe Biden.
We basically have a cardboard cutout running for POTUS.
I saw a grab on 7 news, they were referencing Detroit and the car industry, they did a grab with a worker, middle aged white guy, he just shrugged and said Gas was $2 per gallon, things are going well, why would you change?
Trump is still well in this fight.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| stui magpie wrote: | Biden is largely irrelevent here, the election is about Trump/ People will either vote for Trump or vote against him (hence vote for Biden)
Biden will get his votes from people who just vote democrat and people who are voting against Trump, he'll get very few votes because someone actually wants to vote for Joe Biden.
We basically have a cardboard cutout running for POTUS.
I saw a grab on 7 news, they were referencing Detroit and the car industry, they did a grab with a worker, middle aged white guy, he just shrugged and said Gas was $2 per gallon, things are going well, why would you change?
Trump is still well in this fight. |
Do you think Biden or Trump is in a better position to win (this far out from) their election?
_________________
“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
|
|
|
|
roar
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Can you imagine what the election would be like without the covid pandemic? Trump would have waltzed it in, which just goes to show how pathetic the Democrats have become.
_________________
kill for collingwood! |
|
|
|
|
Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
|
|
|
|
|
Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Will be posting the Arizona preview tonight.
_________________
| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| watt price tully wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | Biden is largely irrelevent here, the election is about Trump/ People will either vote for Trump or vote against him (hence vote for Biden)
Biden will get his votes from people who just vote democrat and people who are voting against Trump, he'll get very few votes because someone actually wants to vote for Joe Biden.
We basically have a cardboard cutout running for POTUS.
I saw a grab on 7 news, they were referencing Detroit and the car industry, they did a grab with a worker, middle aged white guy, he just shrugged and said Gas was $2 per gallon, things are going well, why would you change?
Trump is still well in this fight. |
Do you think Biden or Trump is in a better position to win (this far out from) their election? |
I genuinely don't know. I agree with Roar that without Covid Trump vs Biden was a 2nd round KO to Trump, what's very hard to gauge from a distance is what impact Covid and Trumps behaviour has had.
You'd have to put Biden as favourite, polls and bookies support that, but Trump has a puncher's chance.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| roar wrote: | | Can you imagine what the election would be like without the covid pandemic? Trump would have waltzed it in, which just goes to show how pathetic the Democrats have become. |
You mean the way he waltzed in massive anti-Trump swings during the mid-terms?
Yer right.
_________________
�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
|
|
|
|
Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
|
| Post subject: | |
|
^ More often than not, the President's party always loses the House in the mid-terms following his election.
Same thing happened to Clinton (1994) and Obama (2010) and they were both re-elected by comfortable margins two years later.
_________________
| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
|
|
|
|
Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
|
| Post subject: | |
|
ARIZONA (11)
Interesting Trivia:
• Arizona was the 48th state to be admitted to the union, in 1912.
• Republicans have won the state in all presidential elections since 1952, except 1996.
• Become a purple state with changing demographics.
Current Composition:
• Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
• House: 5 Democratic, 4 Republican
• Senate: 1 Democratic, 1 Republican
• Governor = Doug Ducey (Republican)
Registered Voters:
As of November 2020
• Democratic = 1,378,324 (32.2%)
• Republican = 1,508,778 (35.2%)
• Minor Party/Independent = 1,394,050 (32.6%)
TOTAL = 4,281,152
https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data
Democrats have increased their voter registration by 287,001 since 2016.
Republicans have increased their voter registration by 269,164 since 2016.
Democrats have a net voter registration gain of 17,837 (1.1%) since 2016.
Overall, voter registration has increased by 692,686 since 2016 across the board, whether someone is registered with a party or not.
Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (3.50%)
• 2012 = Romney (9.03%)
• 2008 = McCain (8.48%)
• 2004 = Bush (10.45%)
• 2000 = Bush (6.28%)
• 1996 = Clinton (2.23%)
2016 Election Result:
• Clinton = 1,161,167 (44.58%)
• Trump = 1,252,401 (48.08%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 91,234 votes (3.50%)
Total = 2,604,657
• Voted for major parties = 92.66%
• Voted for minor parties = 7.34%
Turnout among registered voters
• 2016 = 74.17%
• 2012 = 74.36%
• 2008 = 77.69%
• 2004 = 77.10%
• 2000 = 71.76%
2016 Primaries:
• Clinton = 262,459 (56.29%) – Democratic = 466,235
• Trump = 286,743 (45.95%) – Republican = 624,039
2020 Primaries:
• Biden = 268,029 (43.70%) – Democratic = 536,509
• Trump = N/A – Republican = N/A
**Republicans did not hold a primary election in Arizona during this election cycle.
2020 Predictions:
• Ranging from Tilt, Lean or Likely Democrat by all pollsters, except three which have the state as a tossup.
Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
• 270 to win = Biden 49.8 - 46.9 Trump = Biden (2.9)
• RCP = Biden 47.3 - 47.2 Trump = Biden (0.1)
• 538 = Biden 50.9 - 47.9 Trump = Biden (3.0)
Bellwether Counties:
• No significant bellwether counties.
• Worth keeping an eye on Gila, Pinal and Navajo.
Top 5 Tightest County Races in 2016:
• Yuma = Clinton 24,605 (47.1%) – 25,165 (48.1%) Trump
Trump won by 560 votes (1.0%)
• Maricopa = Clinton 702,907 (43.7%) – 747,361 (46.5%) Trump
Trump won by 44,454 votes (2.8%)
• Navajo = Clinton 16,459 (42.0%) – 20,577 (52.6%) Trump
Trump won by 4,118 votes (10.6%)
• Pima = Clinton 224,661 (54.3%) – 167,428 (40.5%) Trump
Clinton won by 57,233 votes (13.8%)
• Pinal = Clinton 47,892 (37.7%) – 72,819 (57.2%) Trump
Trump won by 24,927 votes (19.5%)
Most Populated County (by results):
• Maricopa = 1,608,875 votes
Clinton (702,907) – Trump (747,361) = Trump won by 44,454 (2.8%)
• Pima = 650,114 votes
Clinton (224,661) – Trump (167,428) = Clinton won by 57,233 (13.8%)
• Pinal = 128,235 votes
Clinton (47,892) – Trump (72,819) = Trump won by 24,927 (19.5%)
• Yavapai = 113,144 votes
Clinton (35,090) – Trump (71,330) = Trump won by 35,740 (31.8%)
• Mohave = 79,344 votes
Clinton (17,455) – Trump (58,282) = Trump won by 40,827 (51.6%)
Counties to Watch:
Maricopa
• Phoenix is located within the county, and it's the most vastly populated county in the state.
• Approximately 60% of votes come from this one county alone.
• Been a Republican stronghold historically, but the Democrats are edging closer to overtaking Republicans here.
• Question remains whether enough Bush/McCain Republicans turnout for Trump or not.
Pima
• Between Maricopa and Pima, they made up 77% of the voting bloc in the 2016 election.
• Biden will have to increase his margin here compared to Clinton and hope to reduce the deficit in Maricopa if he’s going to win the state.
Pinal, Yavapai and Mohave
• Trump will win these three counties, but the margins will be a point of interest.
• If Trump struggles here, it gives Biden a big opening to flip the state in his favour.
Yuma
• Largely insignificant on its own, but it was the tightest county by margin in 2016.
• If Biden can win the county, it might bode well for him in the rest of the state.
_________________
| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Interesting to look at the fivethirtyeight forecasts (as distinct from polling) for Arizona in 2016 and now.
In 2016, the polls - and consequently the forecasts - were all over the place (75/25 for Trump in July, 57/43 Clinton in August, 72/28 for Trump in late September, 57/43 for Clinton in mid-October and 75/25 for Trump 2 days before the election): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/
This time, the forecasts have consistently had Biden ahead, although it was close (52/48 ) at the end of August. In October, it has never been closer than 40/60 for Trump and is presently 30/70: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/arizona/
Thus, on the probabilities, fivethirtyeight has Biden "slightly favoured" in Arizona. |
|
|
|
|
watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Trafalgar who are conservative Trump supporters picked it in 2016 when almost everyone else picked Clinton. They continue to pick Trump in 2020 but in Florida where they do pick Trump he is just inside their margin of error. 538 rate Trafalgar as a C- but I wouldn’t discount them.
Amazing as it sounds these deplorables think the Coronavirus is overstated, is just like the flu, that Dr’s are making money out of it🙄. At the same time Trump said he could go into Times Square and kill somebody and nothing would happen.
_________________
“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
|
|
|
|
David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
I actually do feel pretty confident that Trump will take Florida. It's in the rust-belt states and perhaps a few others like Arizona that I think he'll come unstuck.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
|
The Rules
FAQ
Usergroups
Calendar
Search
Log in
Register
