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Jezza 
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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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Getting back on topic, I'll be covering Michigan next.
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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<Posts about the Barrett Supreme Court confirmation moved to "US Election 2020" thread. Thanks, David for BBMods.>
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
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MICHIGAN (16)
Interesting Trivia:
• Closest state by margin in the 2016 election.
• First time a Republican President (i.e. Trump) had won he state since 1988.
• Former US President, Gerald Ford was raised in the state.
Current Composition:
• Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
• House: 7 Democratic, 6 Republican, 1 Libertarian
• Senate: 2 Democratic
• Governor = Gretchen Whitmer (Democratic)
Registered Voters:
• Michigan voters do not register by party.
TOTAL = 7,748,541 (6,764,903 active voters) as of July 2020
The 'Active Voter Count' excludes voters who have not voted in the last 6 years.
https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/2020_Registered_Voter_Count_682262_7.pdf
Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (0.23%)
• 2012 = Obama (9.50%)
• 2008 = Obama (16.44%)
• 2004 = Kerry (3.42%)
• 2000 = Gore (5.13%)
• 1996 = Clinton (13.21%)
2016 Election Result:
• Clinton = 2,268,839 (47.27%)
• Trump = 2,279,543 (47.50%)
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Trump won by 10,704 votes (0.23%)
Total = 4,799,284
• Voted for major parties = 94.77%
• Voted for minor parties = 5.23%
Turnout of registered voters
• 2016 = 64.87%
• 2012 = 64.13%
• 2008 = 67.45%
• 2004 = 68.05%
• 2000 = 62.38%
• 1996 = 58.59%
2016 Primaries:
• Clinton = 581,775 (48.26%) – Democratic = 1,205,552
• Trump = 483,753 (36.55%) – Republican = 1,323,589
2020 Primaries:
• Biden = 840,360 (52.93%) – Democratic = 1,587,679
• Trump = 639,498 (93.73%) – Republican = 682,288
2020 Predictions:
• Leaning or Likely Democrat by all pollsters.
Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
• 270 to win = Biden 53.0 – 44.7 Trump = Biden (8.7)
• RCP = Biden 50.6 - 41.9 Trump = Biden (8.7)
• 538 = Biden 53.6 - 45.4 Trump = Biden (8.2)
Bellwether Counties:
• Shiawassee = Bellwether county since 1980
• Van Buren = Bellwether county since 1980
• Eaton = Bellwether county since 2000 (three misses since 1964).
Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016):
• Bay
• Calhoun
• Eaton
• Gogebic
• Isabella
• Lake
• Macomb
• Manistee
• Monroe
• Saginaw
• Shiawassee
• Van Buren
Top 10 Tightest County Races in 2016:
• Saginaw = Clinton 44,396 (47.1%) – 45,469 (48.2%) Trump
Trump won by 1,073 votes (1.1%)
Trump flips the county
• Muskegon = Clinton 37,304 (47.8%) – 36,127 (46.3%) Trump
Clinton won by 1,177 votes (1.5%)
• Kent = Clinton 138,683 (45.0%) – 148,180 (48.1%) Trump
Trump won by 9,497 votes (3.1%)
• Leelanau = Clinton 6,774 (45.9%) – 7,239 (49.1%) Trump
Trump won by 465 votes (3.2%)
• Isabella = Clinton 11,404 (44.9%) – 12,338 (48.6%) Trump
Trump won by 934 votes (3.7%)
Trump flips the county
• Marquette = Clinton 16,042 (48.7%) – 14,646 (44.4%) Trump
Clinton won by 1,396 votes (4.3%)
• Eaton = Clinton 24,938 (44.4%) – 27,609 (49.1%) Trump
Trump won by 2,671 votes (4.7%)
Trump flips the county
• Oakland = Clinton 343,070 (51.6%) – 289,703 (43.5%) Trump
Clinton won by 53,867 votes (8.1%)
• Genesee = Clinton 102,751 (52.3%) – 84,175 (42.8%) Trump
Clinton won by 18,576 votes (9.5%)
• Macomb = Clinton 176,317 (42.1%) – 224,665 (53.6%) Trump
Trump won by 48,348 votes (11.5%)
Trump flips the county
Most Populated County (by results):
• Wayne = 777,838 votes
Clinton (519,444) – Trump (290,451) = Clinton won by 290,451 (37.4%)
• Oakland = 664,614 votes
Clinton (343,070) – Trump (289,203) = Clinton won by 53,867 (8.1%)
• Macomb = 419,312 votes
Clinton (176,317) – Trump (224,665) = Trump won by 48,348 (11.5%)
• Kent = 308,184 votes
Clinton (138,683) – Trump (148,180) = Trump won by 9,497 (3.1%)
• Genesee = 196,296 votes
Clinton (102,751) – Trump (84,175) = Clinton won by 18,576 (9.5%)
• Washtenaw = 188,578 votes
Clinton (128,483) – Trump (50,631) = Clinton won by 77,852 (41.2%)
• Ottawa = 142,734 votes
Clinton (44,973) – Trump (88,467) = Trump won by 43,494 (30.5%)
• Ingham = 131,138 votes
Clinton (79,110) – Trump (43,868) = Clinton won by 35,242 (26.8%)
• Kalamazoo = 126,299 votes
Clinton (67,148) – Trump (51,034) = Clinton won by 16,114 (12.8%)
• Livingston = 105,866 votes
Clinton (34,384) – Trump (65,680) = Trump won by 31,296 (29.5%)
Counties to Watch:
Wayne
• Most populated county in the state.
• Detroit is located within this county.
• Clinton obtained 76,000 less votes than Obama did in 2012.
• Trump gained 15,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012.
• Biden likely win the state if he wins this county by 40% or more. Clinton won it by 37% in 2016.
Macomb
• A blue-collar county located in the Detroit suburbs, and was renowned for being a county that had many “Reagan Democrats” back in the 1980s.
• Trump gained 33,000 votes here, whereas Clinton lost 32,000 votes in 2016.
• Trump flipped this county after Obama won the county twice in 2008 and 2012.
Calhoun
• Located in southern Michigan.
• Trump received 53.5% of the vote in this county marking a Republican candidate’s highest vote share since Ronald Reagan in 1988.
• Clinton received 41.0% of the vote in this county, which was the lowest voting share for a Democratic candidate since 1984.
Saginaw
• The tightest county in the 2016 race.
• A county that has seen a population decline of 17% since 1980.
• Donald Trump was the first Republican to win the county since Reagan in 1984.
Shiawassee and Van Buren
• Both bellwether counties since 1980.
• The winner in these counties will likely give a good indication of who ends up winning the state as a whole.
Interesting article about Macomb County
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/2020-election-michigan-macomb-county-trump-biden.html
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Biden seems a lock for Michigan, right? Looking at those past results, it seems hard to believe that Trump would pull this state off two elections in a row.
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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^ Yep, I think Biden wins it.
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Not sure what to make of it but 538 polling from 28/10/2020 has Florida going to Biden with 2 polling groups: Monmouth University and Marist Polls at 6% and 4% respectively. Both polling groups are rated by 538 as A+. If that is true and holds it’s good riddance Donny. However....
There was another polling group I looked up who were rated C or less due to bias who had Trump at 4% in front but had a 5% margin of error.
Basically Trump can’t afford to lose Florida whereas while it would help a lot Biden doesn’t need it as desperately as the Orange man does to win the election.
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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^ There's no way Trump loses by 4-6 in Florida.
I lost faith in 538 after the 2016 polling debacle and I don't trust how they grade pollsters. Trafalgar nailed the 2016 election and 2018 Florida governor race and they're rated as only a "C" pollster.
The margin will be a max of three points either way. Early voting numbers in Florida don't suggest an easy win for Biden in Florida.
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| watt price tully wrote: | Not sure what to make of it but 538 polling from 28/10/2020 has Florida going to Biden with 2 polling groups: Monmouth University and Marist Polls at 6% and 4% respectively. Both polling groups are rated by 538 as A+. If that is true and holds it’s good riddance Donny. However....
There was another polling group I looked up who were rated C or less due to bias who had Trump at 4% in front but had a 5% margin of error.
Basically Trump can’t afford to lose Florida whereas while it would help a lot Biden doesn’t need it as desperately as the Orange man does to win the election. |
Fivethirtyeight is quite explicit about its analysis and makes plain that it provides a probabilistic assessment, which is quite helpful.
Ultimately, though, it only reviews and evaluates other people's polling, so its assessment is only as good as the underlying data. The real question is whether pollsters, generally, have tightened up on the matters they plainly were not evaluating last time. If they have, it was a one-off and won't happen again. It's possible all the pollsters are making exactly the same mistakes, now, but you'd think that - as their livelihoods depend upon it - they would have made every effort to take account of factors they previously dismissed as inconsequential. If you read the reports given by the pollsters expressing favourable (or less unfavourable) views about Trump's position - eg, Rasmussen - it isn't like they have some secret, special methodology that is patented and unavailable to other pollsters: in those circumstances, you'd expect the other people who do it for a living to have gone over all those "pro Trump" pollsters and evaluated their methodologies and adapted and absorbed, as necessary over the last 4 years. On that general topic, there were, of course, 2018 mid-terms and fivethirtyeight got those correct. See, eg, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did/
Anyway, we'll know in a couple of weeks. Plainly, though, with the Democrat pre-voting apparently running at about 2 to 1 against Republican pre-voting, its going to be difficult to interpret what happens on election night. The likelihood is that Trump is, at first blush, going to look like he is winning the election as in-person votes are counted first, even if he is losing and it isn't actually that close.
Widespread reporting over recent days has been to the effect that the Republican Party is (that is, actually and internally) preparing to lose the Senate, lose seats in the House and deal with a Biden presidency, so if the "pro-Trump" polls prove to be correct, it will be as much a surprise to the Republicans as to the Democrats. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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I suppose, in light of Jezza's observation that he "lost faith" in fivethirtyeight.com, the following article might of some interest: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/
The problem is not that fivethirtyeight didn't allow for the possibility that Trump would win but that the media misunderstood and basically treated the probabilistic assessment as if it were "calling" the election for Clinton.
So, if you look at the present fivethirtyeight forecast, the assessment is that Biden has about an 89% chance of winning and Trump has an 11% chance of winning. That is, they favour Biden to win, on the data they have reviewed, but they do not say Trump cannot win. To the contrary, their view is that, on the data they have, they expect Trump would win one out of every 9 elections. They are not "calling" the election for Biden, just as they didn't call the election for Clinton in 2016. What is notable, of course, is that Trump's chances of winning this election, while still around 1 in 9 on fivethirtyeight's assessment, are about a third of the chances - as fivethirtyeight assessed them - in 2016 (3 in 10, near enough to 1 in 3).
Anyone who follows the NFL closely (as I do) knows that just because the carefully-calculated probability of victory worm hits 75%, your team might still easily lose. We do know, though, that when it hits 99.9%, we are going to win.
About all you would say on fivethirtyeight's reading of the data, as they presently evaluate it, is that 89 to 11 is much better for Biden than 70 to 30 was for Clinton. Thus Trump might still win. It won't be a surprise to people who understand the data if he does. It would just be about a third as likely as his last win. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Jezza wrote: | ^ There's no way Trump loses by 4-6 in Florida.
I lost faith in 538 after the 2016 polling debacle and I don't trust how they grade pollsters. Trafalgar nailed the 2016 election and 2018 Florida governor race and they're rated as only a "C" pollster.
The margin will be a max of three points either way. Early voting numbers in Florida don't suggest an easy win for Biden in Florida. |
As noted by P4S, 538 provides probabilities not definitive outcomes. No poll can do the latter. I have a view that Trump will win Florida but lose overall in a tight contest. I called myself and asked me a leading question. I reckon in a 2 horse race I’ve got a 50% of being right 😉 although Nat Silver reckons through his sampling method that Trump has an 11% chance of winning.
Who knows?
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | I suppose, in light of Jezza's observation that he "lost faith" in fivethirtyeight.com, the following article might of some interest: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/
The problem is not that fivethirtyeight didn't allow for the possibility that Trump would win but that the media misunderstood and basically treated the probabilistic assessment as if it were "calling" the election for Clinton.
So, if you look at the present fivethirtyeight forecast, the assessment is that Biden has about an 89% chance of winning and Trump has an 11% chance of winning. That is, they favour Biden to win, on the data they have reviewed, but they do not say Trump cannot win. To the contrary, their view is that, on the data they have, they expect Trump would win one out of every 9 elections. They are not "calling" the election for Biden, just as they didn't call the election for Clinton in 2016. What is notable, of course, is that Trump's chances of winning this election, while still around 1 in 9 on fivethirtyeight's assessment, are about a third of the chances - as fivethirtyeight assessed them - in 2016 (3 in 10, near enough to 1 in 3).
Anyone who follows the NFL closely (as I do) knows that just because the carefully-calculated probability of victory worm hits 75%, your team might still easily lose. We do know, though, that when it hits 99.9%, we are going to win.
About all you would say on fivethirtyeight's reading of the data, as they presently evaluate it, is that 89 to 11 is much better for Biden than 70 to 30 was for Clinton. Thus Trump might still win. It won't be a surprise to people who understand the data if he does. It would just be about a third as likely as his last win. |
Good summary, P4S.
Nate Silver did a great job in 2008 and 2012 which enhanced his reputation, but 2016 made me doubt his forecasts.
We'll know one way or another whether 2016 was an abberation or not.
| watt price tully wrote: | As noted by P4S, 538 provides probabilities not definitive outcomes. No poll can do the latter. I have a view that Trump will win Florida but lose overall in a tight contest. I called myself and asked me a leading question. I reckon in a 2 horse race I’ve got a 50% of being right 😉 although Nat Silver reckons through his sampling method that Trump has an 11% chance of winning.
Who knows? |
Fair points, WPT. Predictions can always blow up in our faces either way.
I just can't wait for 9am Wednesday morning when the first numbers from Kentucky and Indiana roll in.
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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I will be posting the preview for Wisconsin later this afternoon or this evening.
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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WISCONSIN (10)
Interesting Trivia:
• Tipping point state of the 2016 election.
• First time a Republican President (i.e. Trump) had won the state since 1984.
• In 2016, Real Clear Politics predicted Clinton would win the state by 6.5%. Trump won it by 0.8%.
Current Composition:
• Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
• House: 5 Republican, 3 Democratic
• Senate: 1 Democratic, 1 Republican
• Governor = Tony Evers (Democratic)
Registered Voters:
• Wisconsin voters do not register by party.
TOTAL = 3,583,804 (active registered voters) as of October 1 2020
https://elections.wi.gov/node/7147
Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (0.77%)
• 2012 = Obama (6.94%)
• 2008 = Obama (13.91%)
• 2004 = Kerry (0.38%)
• 2000 = Gore (0.22%)
• 1996 = Clinton (10.33%)
2016 Election Result:
• Clinton = 1,382,536 (46.45%)
• Trump = 1,405,284 (47.22%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 22,748 votes (0.77%)
Total = 2,976,150
• Voted for major parties = 93.67%
• Voted for minor parties = 6.33%
Turnout of registered voters
• 2016 = 67.34%
• 2012 = 70.35%
• 2008 = 69.20%
• 2004 = 72.90%
2016 Primaries:
• Clinton = 433,739 (43.05%) – Democratic = 1,007,600
• Trump = 387,295 (35.02%) – Republican = 1,105,944
2020 Primaries:
• Biden = 581,463 (62.86%) – Democratic = 925,065
• Trump = 616,782 (97.87%) – Republican = 630,198
2020 Predictions:
• Leaning or Likely Democrat by all pollsters except Real Clear Politics, which has it as a tossup.
Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
• 270 to win = Biden 52.4 – 44.3 Trump = Biden (8.1)
• RCP = Biden 50.3 - 43.9 Trump = Biden (6.4)
• 538 = Biden 53.5 - 45.6 Trump = Biden (7.9)
Bellwether Counties:
• Juneau = Bellwether county since 1964
• Sawyer = Bellwether county since 1964
• Marquette = Bellwether county since 1980
• Lincoln = Bellwether county since 1992
• Racine = Bellwether county since 1992
• Forest = Bellwether county since 1992
• Winnebago = Bellwether county since 1996
• Door = Bellwether county since 1996
Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016):
• Adams
• Buffalo
• Columbia
• Crawford
• Door
• Dunn
• Forest
• Grant
• Jackson
• Juneau
• Kenosha
• Lafayette
• Lincoln
• Marquette
• Pepin
• Price
• Racine
• Richland
• Sauk
• Sawyer
• Trempealeau
• Vernon
• Winnebago
Top 10 Tightest County Races in 2016:
• Kenosha = Clinton 35,799 (46.9%) – 36,037 (47.2%) Trump
Trump won by 238 votes (0.3%)
Trump flips the county
• Sauk = Clinton 14,690 (46.9%) – 14,799 (47.2%) Trump
Trump won by 109 votes (0.3%)
Trump flips the county
• Columbia = Clinton 13,528 (45.6%) – 14,163 (47.7%) Trump
Trump won by 635 votes (2.1%)
Trump flips the county
• Green = Clinton 9,122 (48.1%) – 8,693 (45.8%) Trump
Clinton won by 429 votes (2.3%)
• Door = Clinton 8,014 (45.6%) – 8,580 (48.8%) Trump
Trump won by 566 votes (3.2%)
Trump flips the county
• Portage = Clinton 18,529 (48.0%) – 17,305 (44.8%) Trump
Clinton won by 1,224 votes (3.2%)
• Racine = Clinton 42,641 (45.2%) – 46,681 (49.5%) Trump
Trump won by 4,040 votes (4.3%)
Trump flips the county
• Vernon = Clinton 6,371 (44.6%) – 7,004 (49.1%) Trump
Trump won by 633 votes (4.5%)
Trump flips the county
• Crawford = Clinton 3,419 (44.2%) – 3,836 (49.6%) Trump
Trump won by 417 votes (5.4%)
Trump flips the county
• Richland = Clinton 3,569 (44.2%) – 4,013 (49.7%) Trump
Trump won by 444 votes (5.5%)
Trump flips the county
Most Populated County (by results):
• Milwaukee = 441,053 votes
Clinton (288,822) – Trump (126,069) = Clinton won by 162,753 (36.9%)
• Dane = 309,354 votes
Clinton (217,697) – Trump (71,275) = Clinton won by 146,422 (47.4%)
• Waukesha = 237,593 votes
Clinton (79,224) – Trump (142,543) = Trump won by 63,319 (26.7%)
• Brown = 129,011 votes
Clinton (53,382) – Trump (67,210) = Trump won by 13,828 (10.7%)
• Racine = 94,302 votes
Clinton (42,641) – Trump (46,681) = Trump won by 4,040 (4.3%)
• Outagamie = 93,933 votes
Clinton (38,068) – Trump (49,879) = Trump won by 11,811 (12.6%)
• Winnebago = 87,135 votes
Clinton (37,047) – Trump (43,445) = Trump won by 6,398 (7.4%)
• Washington = 76,757 votes
Clinton (20,852) – Trump (51,740) = Trump won by 30,888 (40.2%)
• Kenosha = 76,304 votes
Clinton (35,799) – Trump (36,037) = Trump won by 238 (0.3%)
• Rock = 76,074 votes
Clinton (39,339) – Trump (31,493) = Clinton won by 76,074 (10.3%)
Counties to Watch:
WOW Counties
• Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington counties, which makes up approximately 11% of the population.
• Located in southeastern Wisconsin in the Milwaukee suburbs, which has been traditionally a Republican stronghold.
• Trump's vote share in these counties was weaker than his Republican predecessors (Bush, McCain and Romney).
• Results since 2000:
2016 = 60.92 - 32.59 (Trump won by 28.33)
2012 = 67.03 - 32.00 (Romney won by 35.03)
2008 = 62.40 - 36.50 (McCain won by 25.90)
2004 = 67.57 - 31.63 (Bush won by 35.94)
2000 = 65.65 - 31.15 (Bush won by 34.50)
• If Trump is to hold Wisconsin, he'll need at 62% of the vote across these counties, especially if he loses some of the rural and blue-collar counties that he flipped in his favour in 2016.
Milwaukee
• Most populated county, with a large African American population.
• Turnout was down in this county compared to 2012, with Clinton and Trump both performing poorly compared to Obama and Romney in 2012.
• Biden will aim to win 67% of the vote, while Trump will look to win 31% of the vote.
• Clinton won 65.5% and Trump won 28.6% in 2016.
Kenosha
• Become a high-profiled county recently due to the recent riots and violence in the region.
• Closest county in 2016, so one to keep an eye on.
• Will be interesting to see if Trump's law and order stance cuts through or not.
Juneau and Sawyer
• Both bellwether counties since 1964.
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Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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It won't be close. Not even close to being close. Trump is massively unpopular. His base is super keen, but they only get one vote each, and numerically, Trump's base is hugely outnumbered.
The reason Trump got in in the first place is that a huge number of Democrat voters couldn't stand Clinton and didn't bother turning up to vote. Trump got a significantly lower vote than previous Republican candidates like Romney.
This time around, there are two things going on: (i) the Democrats have put up an acceptable candidate, possibly even a very good one. No-one hates Biden the way they hated the execrable Clinton. (Except David, of course, but he doesn't get a vote.) (ii) The broad mass of not-so-interested-in-politics America is much, much more likely to vote, and the'll be voting Trump out.
Against that, Trumps rabid supporters can do nothing other than stand around polling places holding guns and threatening violence (which they will do), disenfranchise likely Democrat voters (which they have already done), and make voting as difficult, unpleasant and dangerous as possible. (Lots of progress on that front too.)
None of these things will be anywhere near enough to outweigh the huge numbers voting to oust Trump. Trump and his cronies will play every dirty trick in the book, but the numbers against them are overwhelming. We saw that in the mid-terms, and we will see the same thing on steroids now.
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Interesting that, despite Wisconsin consistently voting Democrat up until 2016, the two last times a Republican won the presidential election it was also very close – you could have just tossed a coin in each. The polling suggests an Obama 2012 style result – a Democratic win, but not necessarily a landslide.
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