US election 2020 (state-by-state) preview

[think positive]

awesome work Jezza, the Florida result surprises me, The Latinos and Cubans would surely vote democrat, same for the richer retired? How about all the actors and sports stars that live on Star island and the surrounding mega rich areas? Huge gay population? who do they vote for? further up you get the white blue collar retirees, im guessing Trump gets a lot of those. do you by any chance have a "policy guide for dummies" in your bag of magic tricks?

[roar]

Cubans are those that escaped Castro's regime and therefore mainly Republican

[Jezza]

[think positive]

Thanks Jezza, that’s really interesting

[Jezza]

NORTH CAROLINA (15)

Interesting Trivia:
• 9th biggest population in the US.
• Republicans have won the state in 9 out of the last 10 elections.
• Republican stronghold from 1980-2004, until the Democrats won the state narrowly in 2008. Since then, it's been a battleground state.

Current Composition:
• Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
• House: 9 Republican, 3 Democratic, 1 Vacant
• Senate: 2 Republican
• Governor = Roy Cooper (Democratic)

Active Registered Voters:
As of October 10 2020:
• Democratic = 2,585,688 (35.7%)
• Republican = 2,185,854 (30.2%)
• Minor Party = 52,768 (0.7%)
• Independent = 2,417,932 (33.4%)
TOTAL = 7,242,242

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F10%2F2020

Democrats have decreased their voter registration by 147,500 since 2016.
Republicans have increased their voter registration by 98,912 since 2016.

Republicans have a net voter registration gain of 246,412 (3.8%) since 2016.

Overall, voter registration has increased by 324,092 since 2016 across the board, whether someone is registered with a party or not.

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (3.66%)
• 2012 = Romney (2.04%)
• 2008 = Obama (0.32%)
• 2004 = Bush (12.44%)
• 2000 = Bush (12.83%)
• 1996 = Dole (4.69%)

2016 Election Result:
• Clinton = 2,189,316 (46.17%)
• Trump = 2,362,631 (49.83%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 173,315 votes (3.66%)

Total = 4,741,564
• Voted for major parties = 96.00%
• Voted for minor parties = 4.00%

Voter Turnout
• 2016 = 68.54%
• 2012 = 67.74%
• 2008 = 68.81%
• 2004 = 68% (approximately)

2016 Primaries:
• Clinton = 616,758 (54.59%) – Democratic = 1,129,767
• Trump = 462,413 (40.23%) – Republican = 1,149,530

2020 Primaries:
• Biden = 572,271 (42.95%) – Democratic = 1,332,382
• Trump = 750,600 (93.53%) – Republican = 802,527

2020 Predictions (as of October 5 2020):
• Considered a tossup by all polling companies, except two (Princeton Electoral Consortium and 538), which have the state leaning Democrat.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
• 270 to win = Biden 49.0 – 46.0 Trump = Biden (3.0)
• RCP = Biden 48.7 – 46.8 Trump = Biden (1.9)
• 538 = Biden 49.0 – 46.1 Trump = Biden (2.9)

Bellwether Counties:
• Granville = Bellwether county since 2004 (three misses since 1972).
• Martin = Bellwether county since 2004 (three misses since 1972).
• Buncombe = Bellwether county between 1964-2012 (missed 2016).

Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016):
• Bladen
• Gates
• Granville
• Martin
• Nash
• Richmond
• Robeson

Counties won by Romney (2012) that swung to Clinton (2016):
• Watauga

Top 10 Tightest County Races in 2016:

• Nash = Clinton 23,235 (48.7%) – 23,318 (48.9%) Trump
Trump won by 83 votes (0.2%)
Trump flips the county

• Martin = Clinton 5,846 (48.8%) – 5,897 (49.2%) Trump
Trump won by 51 votes (0.2%)
Trump flips the county

• Watauga = Clinton 14,138 (47.2%) – 13,698 (45.7%) Trump
Clinton won by 440 votes (1.5%)
Clinton flips the county

• Granville = Clinton 12,909 (47.2%) – 13,591 (49.7%) Trump
Trump won by 682 votes (2.5%)
Trump flips the county

• Pasquotank = Clinton 8,615 (49.5%) – 8,180 (47.0%) Trump
Clinton won by 435 votes (2.5%)

• New Hanover = Clinton 50,975 (45.6%) – 55,340 (49.5%) Trump
Trump won by 4,365 votes (3.9%)

• Robeson = Clinton 19,016 (46.5%) – 20,762 (50.8%) Trump
Trump won by 1,746 votes (4.3%)
Trump flips the county

• Lenoir = Clinton 12,091 (46.4%) – 13,381 (51.4%) Trump
Trump won by 1,290 votes (5.0%)

• Wilson = Clinton 19,663 (51.6%) – 17,531 (46.0%) Trump
Clinton won by 2,132 votes (5.6%)

• Pitt = Clinton 41,824 (51.9%) – 35,691 (44.3%) Trump
Clinton won by 6,133 votes (7.6%)


Most Populated County (by results):

• Wake = 527,337 votes
Clinton (302,569) – Trump (195,984) = Clinton won by 106,585 (20.2%)

• Mecklenburg = 472,857 votes
Clinton (294,562) – Trump (155,518) = Clinton won by 139,044 (29.4%)

• Guilford = 257,405 votes
Clinton (149,248) – Trump (98,062) = Clinton won by 51,186 (19.9%)

• Forsyth = 177,786 votes
Clinton (94,185) – Trump (75,751) = Clinton won by 18,434 (10.4%)

• Durham = 156,006 votes
Clinton (121,166) – Trump (28,314) = Clinton won by 92,852 (59.5%)

• Buncombe = 138,891 votes
Clinton (75,421) – Trump (55,694) = Clinton won by 19,727 (14.2%)

• Cumberland = 127,506 votes
Clinton (71,605) – Trump (51,265) = Clinton won by 20,343 (16.0%)

• New Hanover = 111,897 votes
Clinton (50,975) – Trump (55,340) = Trump won by 4,365 (3.9%)

• Union = 105,706 votes
Clinton (34,335) – Trump (66,705) = Trump won by 32,370 (30.6%)

• Gaston = 96,431 votes
Clinton (31,177) – Trump (61,798) = Trump won by 30,621 (31.8%)


Counties to watch:

Granville
• Bellwether county since 2004.
• Margin was 2.5% in 2016.
• Formerly a Democratic stronghold until the 21st century.

Martin
• Another bellwether county since 2004.
• A county that swung to Trump in 2016 after Obama won it in 2012.

Robeson
• A county won by the Republicans for the first time since 1972, which was unexpected.
• The Democrats have to win this county by about 10-15% to win the state.

Wake
• Most populated county in the state.
• A county that is becoming increasingly Democratic with each election cycle.
• Democrats won the county by 14%, 11% and 20% in the 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections.
• Democrats will be aiming for a big victory here.

Mecklenburg
• The city of Charlotte is located within this county.
• Similar to Wake County in that the area has become very Democratic in the last few election cycles.

[think positive]

Some very posh areas around Charlotte I was surprised, some very seedy areas too, lot of red necks too, due to the amazing NASCAR and speedway there.

[watt price tully]

Coronavirus goes up and Trumps polls going down generally & specifically in Wisconsin:

Wisconsin reported over 3700 cases in one day in a state population of 5.8 Million.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/18/trump-wisconsin-economy-election

[Jezza]

PENNSYLVANIA (20)

Interesting Trivia:
• Predicted to be the tipping point state of the election.
• Trump was the first Republican to win the state since 1988, with the Democrats winning the state in successive elections (1992-2012).
• Joe Biden was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Current Composition:
• Presidency: Majority voted Republican in 2016.
• House: 9 Democratic, 9 Republican
• Senate: 1 Democratic, 1 Republican
• Governor = Tom Wolf (Democratic)

Registered Voters:
• Democratic = 4,207,190 (46.7%)
• Republican = 3,506,337 (38.9%)
• Minor Party/Independent = 1,302,636 (14.4%)
TOTAL = 9,016,163

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Pages/VotingElectionStatistics.aspx

Democrats have decreased their voter registration by 10,266 since 2016.
Republicans have increased their voter registration by 205,155 since 2016.

Republicans have a net voter registration gain of 215,421 (2.7%) since 2016.

Overall, voter registration has increased by 293,186 since 2016 across the board, whether someone is registered with a party or not.

Past Election Winners:
• 2016 = Trump (0.72%)
• 2012 = Obama (5.38%)
• 2008 = Obama (10.32%)
• 2004 = Kerry (2.50%)
• 2000 = Gore (4.17%)
• 1996 = Clinton (9.20%)

2016 Election Result:
• Clinton = 2,926,441 (47.46%)
• Trump = 2,970,733 (48.18%)
______________________________________________
Trump won by 44,292 votes (0.72%)

Total = 6,165,478
• Voted for major parties = 95.64%
• Voted for minor parties = 4.36%

Turnout
• 2016 = 70.68%
• 2012 = 67.63%
• 2008 = 68.70%
• 2004 = 68.96%
• 2000 = 63.13%

2016 Primaries:
• Clinton = 935,107 (55.61%) – Democratic = 1,681,427
• Trump = 902,593 (56.61%) – Republican = 1,594,475

2020 Primaries:
• Biden = 1,264,824 (79.26%) – Democratic = 1,595,508
• Trump = 1,043,311 (93.30%) – Republican = 1,132,213

2020 Predictions:
• Leaning or Likely Democrat by all pollsters, except two (Real Clear Politics and CNN), which have the state as a tossup.

Latest 2020 Polls:
Aggregate Polls:
• 270 to win = Biden 52.4 – 45.1 Trump = Biden (7.3)
• RCP = Biden 48.9 – 45.4 Trump = Biden (3.5)
• 538 = Biden 52.6 – 46.7 Trump = Biden (5.9)

Bellwether Counties:
• Luzerne = Bellwether county since 2008 (three misses since 1952).

Counties won by Obama (2012) that swung to Trump (2016):
• Erie
• Luzerne
• Northampton

Counties won by Romney (2012) that swung to Clinton (2016):
• Chester


Top 10 Tightest County Races in 2016:

• Monroe = Clinton 33,918 (48.6%) – 33,386 (47.9%) Trump
Clinton won by 532 votes (0.7%)

• Bucks = Clinton 167,060 (48.5%) – 164,361 (47.7%) Trump
Clinton won by 2,699 votes (0.8%]

• Erie = Clinton 58,112 (47.0%) – 60,069 (48.6%) Trump
Trump won by 1,957 votes (1.6%)
Trump flips the county

• Centre = Clinton 37,088 (48.7%) – 35,074 (46.3%) Trump
Clinton won by 2,014 votes (2.4%)

• Dauphin = Clinton 64,706 (49.4%) – 60,863 (46.5%) Trump
Clinton won by 3,843 votes (2.9%)

• Lackawanna = Clinton 51,983 (50.3%) – 48,384 (46.8%) Trump
Clinton won by 3,599 votes (3.5%)

• Northampton = Clinton 66,272 (46.2%) – 71,736 (50.0%) Trump
Trump won by 5,464 votes (3.8%)
Trump flips the county

• Lehigh = Clinton 81,324 (50.5%) – 73,690 (45.8%) Trump
Clinton won by 7,634 votes (4.7%)

• Chester = Clinton 141,682 (52.7%) – 116,114 (43.2%) Trump
Clinton won by 25,568 votes (9.5%)
Clinton flips the county

• Berks = Clinton 78,437 (42.9%) – 96,626 (52.8%) Trump
Trump won by 18,189 votes (9.9%)


Most Populated County (by results):

• Philadelphia = 707,631 votes
Clinton (584,025) – Trump (108,748) = Clinton won by 475,277 (67.1%)

• Allegheny = 650,114 votes
Clinton (367,617) – Trump (259,480) = Clinton won by 108,137 (16.7%)

• Montgomery = 434,687 votes
Clinton (256,082) – Trump (162,731) = Clinton won by 93,351 (21.5%)

• Bucks = 344,297 votes
Clinton (167,060) – Trump (164,361) = Clinton won by 2,699 (0.8%)

• Delaware = 297,634 votes
Clinton (177,402) – Trump (110,667) = Clinton won by 66,735 (22.4%)

• Chester = 268,800 votes
Clinton (141,682) – Trump (116,114) = Clinton won by 25,568 (9.5%)

• Lancaster = 241,112 votes
Clinton (91,093) – Trump (137,914) = Trump won by 46,821 (19.4%)

• York = 205,986 votes
Clinton (68,524) – Trump (128,528) = Trump won by 60,004 (29.1%)

• Berks = 183,065 votes
Clinton (78,437) – Trump (96,626) = Trump won by 18,189 (9.9%)

• Westmoreland = 182,051 votes
Clinton (59,669) – Trump (116,522) = Trump won by 56,853 (31.2%)


Counties to Watch:

Philadelphia
• Turnout in this county is key for Biden’s prospects of winning the state.
• Clinton gained 4,000 less votes than Obama did in 2012, while Trump gained 12,000 votes than Romney did in 2012.
• Biden needs to win by approximately 70%.

Lackawanna
• Scranton (Biden’s birthplace) is located within this county, so he will be hoping this benefits him with turnout.
• Like Philadelphia, Clinton gained nearly 10,000 fewer votes than Obama did, while Trump gained over 13,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012.
• It’s a county that the Democrats must win.
• One of the areas with many Obama-Trump voters.

Luzerne
• Former coal mining county, with a heavy blue-collar demographic.
• Bellwether County since 2008.
• Flipped to the Republicans in 2016 for the first time since 1988.
• Trump won the county by nearly 20%, which is the highest vote share the Republicans received in the county since 1972.

Northampton
• Another county Trump flipped in his favour in 2016.

Erie
• Located in Western Pennsylvania.
• First time the Republicans won the county since 1984.
• Trump held a rally here just last night.

[watt price tully]

Trafalgar polls who correctly tipped the 2016 election to Trump when the majority tipped Clinton has again tipped Trump to win.

Their view is that most of the other pollsters use outdated methodology.

They also claim that Trump voters are (much) less likely to express their opinion to pollsters. However the way they ask their questions seems to get the voting opinion.

At the same time, 538 polling says Trump has a 12 in 100 chance of winning the election.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/284136

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[David]

Thanks Jezza. Pennsylvania seems particularly interesting – nobody much seemed to predict it going Republican in 2016, but you’d think Biden surely won’t have much trouble with the state this time around.

Just on Philadelphia, do you mean Biden needs to win 70% of the vote, or 85–15 minimum? The latter sounds like an extraordinary challenge, even for an urban centre.

[Jezza]

[Jezza]

[What'sinaname]

fracking Pennsylvannia might be the key to the election

[watt price tully]

[watt price tully]

Top battleground states polling from Real Clear Politics:

Gives Biden a lead in each state

Florida 1.5%
Michigan 7.8%
Pennsylvania 4.6%
North Carolina 1.5%
Arizona 2.4%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
M