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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| eddiesmith wrote: | | There is no comparison between lockdown one and two. Hospitality was shut in both, umm, that’s it? |
There was one other significant thing in common between lockdown one and two, but I'll let you guess what that was. 
| eddiesmith wrote: | | It was strange and daunting because it was different, but you still had some freedoms. Now you’ve had zero freedom for 11 weeks |
We've always had some freedoms. It's simply not true that we haven't had any for eleven weeks. Compare what most of us have experienced under Stage 4 to what happened to those people in the public housing towers at the beginning of July who couldn't go out to get fresh air, couldn't exercise, couldn't see any friends or family even if they lived down the hall, couldn't even buy their own food or choose what to eat. We've had considerably more freedoms, and we had a few more still under the first lockdown. It's all relative, and all, for me, on a spectrum that's a world away from pre-COVID life.
Look, I understand that different people's experiences varied (if I recall correctly, you were up in country Victoria for much of it?) and people found different aspects of the lockdowns more difficult. I'm not trying to say my experience of it was universal. But for me, in rough order, the biggest challenges I experienced went something like this:
1. Not being able to see friends or socialise (same for both lockdowns)
2. Working from home (same for both lockdowns)
3. Mandatory face masks (only brought in for the second one, though as part of a separate announcement and honestly should have been done from the beginning)
And then, somewhat less onerous:
4. Time limits in leaving home (second lockdown only)
5. Restrictions in being able to visit shops/cafes/cinemas/galleries etc. (same for both lockdowns, somewhat more restricted second time around)
6. Geographical limit (second lockdown only)
7. Arguing with K in this thread
You're right about the first restrictions being lifted in mid-May, not end of April – touché. Not sure I understand your claim at the end, though; maybe one of the reasons there wasn't an increase was precisely because a lot of people complied with the Mother's Day directive?
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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Unfortunately I was stuck in Melbourne for most of both lockdowns, escaped to the country in between and was up here before lockdown one but was forced home because of it.
Before lockdown two I was in the middle of planning my return then he locked down Regional Victoria as well. I’d even moved all my stuff back up and had to make a trip to bring it all back!
But you are right, everyone has different experiences, I’m a night owl so curfews and shops shutting early impact me more than others.
My last point was no one observed Dans warnings and still went and visited their mothers. No one I know didn’t, some went Saturday as expected heavy police presence on Sunday but I noticed on the Sunday lots of houses with extra cars at them. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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From The Age's blog (posted at 6.07 pm today):
| Quote: | There is likely more than 50 people in Melbourne with coronavirus that authorities do not know about, according to one epidemiologist who is backing the Victorian government's cautious approach to re-opening.
Professor Tony Blakely, a Professorial Fellow in Epidemiology at Melbourne University, said the delay in re-opening was a smart move considering there were still 15 'mystery cases' with no known source in the community - meaning dozens more are likely going to be infectious for at least two weeks.
"If you think about that 15, and you think about where we came from with the over 10 cases per day seven days... there's probably 50 plus people out there somewhere in metro Melbourne carrying the virus without knowing it," he told ABC Radio Melbourne host Raf Epstein this afternoon. |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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^ Let's stay locked down indefinitely then.
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Blakely's views should be of more than usual interest, since, a few days ago, they were being quoted at length on here by some as support for the restrictions being eased. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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And the restrictions have been eased haven't they?
A sound grab on radio is one thing.
| Quote: | We worry that mystery cases are somehow the tip of the iceberg and there may be at least twice as many cases out there. But even with mystery cases remaining at a steady level for now, our hospitalised cases continue to drop, with no deaths for four days all and plummeting case numbers.
We know from overseas studies that almost 70 per cent of cases never pass the virus on. This tells us the majority of mystery cases will peter out, whether detected or not. But if they do start a cluster and become visible, then the outbreak response strategies introduced over recent weeks will reduce the risk of wider spread through tailored containment of those at risk; cases, close contacts and their contacts. |
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/covid-success-will-only-come-when-premier-trusts-the-public-20201018-p5669c.html
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | From The Age's blog (posted at 6.07 pm today):
| Quote: | There is likely more than 50 people in Melbourne with coronavirus that authorities do not know about, according to one epidemiologist who is backing the Victorian government's cautious approach to re-opening.
Professor Tony Blakely, a Professorial Fellow in Epidemiology at Melbourne University, said the delay in re-opening was a smart move considering there were still 15 'mystery cases' with no known source in the community - meaning dozens more are likely going to be infectious for at least two weeks.
"If you think about that 15, and you think about where we came from with the over 10 cases per day seven days... there's probably 50 plus people out there somewhere in metro Melbourne carrying the virus without knowing it," he told ABC Radio Melbourne host Raf Epstein this afternoon. |
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Well that's better than some people's claims that there are thousands of active cases still out there
But until they can actually track people's movements over the previous 14 days then I take a lot of 'mystery' cases with a grain of salt.
We know people lie to the contact tracers and always will, no matter how much they try and reassure them there will be no penalties.
Although its hard for anyone to listen a politician demanding people tell the truth... |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | From The Age's blog (posted at 6.07 pm today):
| Quote: | There is likely more than 50 people in Melbourne with coronavirus that authorities do not know about, according to one epidemiologist who is backing the Victorian government's cautious approach to re-opening.
Professor Tony Blakely, a Professorial Fellow in Epidemiology at Melbourne University, said the delay in re-opening was a smart move considering there were still 15 'mystery cases' with no known source in the community - meaning dozens more are likely going to be infectious for at least two weeks.
"If you think about that 15, and you think about where we came from with the over 10 cases per day seven days... there's probably 50 plus people out there somewhere in metro Melbourne carrying the virus without knowing it," he told ABC Radio Melbourne host Raf Epstein this afternoon. |
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And here's Blakely's more expansive joint opinion:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach
| Quote: | There are genuinely informed and contested views as to how best to manage this pandemic. Consider Europe. They mostly use what we would call “loose suppression”, aiming for around five to 25 notified cases per million per day. Fair enough – this is one way to do it. In Victoria, that would be something like having 30 to 150 cases per day, in which case we should have opened a few weeks ago.
But large swathes of Europe and the UK are heading back into lockdown – keeping numbers under control with loose suppression is not easy.
In Australia and East Asia we do “tight suppression” or even “aggressive suppression”. What does this mean?
“Tight suppression” is keeping the daily case numbers between one and five per million – or about five to 30 cases per day in Victoria. Given the trick is to keep the reproductive rate at about 1 (that is, each new case infecting on average about one other person), the level of restrictions needed to do this will still end up being the same as “loose suppression” – it is just that you need to get the numbers down lower before you open up. And it is easier for contact tracing to keep these lower numbers in check.
“Aggressive suppression” is the official national policy adopted across Australia. Here one goes a bit harder, pushing for an elimination of community transmission. But you do not stay in lockdown to achieve it. Rather, you release restrictions at the same kind of level as tight suppression, and trust your contact tracing resources to perhaps win each local street-fight – but concede you are not going to win the war with the virus, which is almost certainly likely to pop up again.
Just like Voldemort, we seldom mention “elimination”. There is still a chance of eliminating community transmission from Victoria, and it’s higher if we hold on one more week. Wouldn’t it be great if we got lucky and had a Covid-free Christmas? Sure, the virus would pop up again from time to time, but achieving periods of elimination would have economic and quality of life advantages.
And if we are not so lucky as to eliminate for a while, fine, we will have a Covid-normal Christmas with (hopefully) fewer than 10 cases a day – with more restrictions on for group gatherings.
So, what is Victoria’s strategy? If you look carefully at the roadmap, it includes elimination of community transmission. The last two steps are clearly those on the way to elimination. But it also originally said we stay in step 2 until 26 October, till case numbers are fewer than five per day on average for two weeks, and mystery cases in the past two weeks are fewer than five. While many, including one of us, have commented that the rolling average of five per day was ambitious, it may still be achievable.
But the fact that we still have 15 mystery cases in the past two weeks is concerning.
Why? Because there are possibly 50 or more people out there in Victoria – mostly in metro Melbourne – infected with the virus right now that we do not know about. If we had opened up more on Monday, the chance of these infections taking hold and driving numbers up again was real.
People seem to be forgetting that just a week ago numbers were stubbornly above 10 per day. It is almost as if wishful thinking and business impatience has overtaken us.
Look again at what Andrews said on Sunday: “If through the course of this week we see further low numbers and a sense of certainty in the stories and circumstances that sit behind each of those case numbers, there is an opportunity that we could bring forward the things that are scheduled for the first of November.”
As long as numbers stay mostly in single digits this week, and there are no or only a handful of mystery cases, we predict we will fully open to step 3 next week.
For these reasons, we support the cautious approach taken by the Victorian premier and chief health officer. If in the next week the daily cases are regularly fewer than five per day, and we have few or no mystery cases, then we will be the first to protest if we do not open up fully to step 3 on Monday 26 October – the exact date that was in the original roadmap. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/19/china-becomes-first-major-economy-to-recover-from-covid-19-pandemic
| Quote: | The Chinese economy grew 4.9% between July and September, according to government data, as China becomes the first major economy to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The year-on-year expansion, while slightly lower than analyst expectations, represents a dramatic reversal from the first quarter of this year when the economy shrunk by 6.8%, China’s first contraction since 1992 when officials began keeping quarterly GDP data.
China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said on Sunday that officials predict annual growth of about 2%. “The Chinese economy remains resilient with great potential. Continued recovery is anticipated, which will benefit the global recovery,” he said. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| eddiesmith wrote: | | Pies4shaw wrote: | From The Age's blog (posted at 6.07 pm today):
| Quote: | There is likely more than 50 people in Melbourne with coronavirus that authorities do not know about, according to one epidemiologist who is backing the Victorian government's cautious approach to re-opening.
Professor Tony Blakely, a Professorial Fellow in Epidemiology at Melbourne University, said the delay in re-opening was a smart move considering there were still 15 'mystery cases' with no known source in the community - meaning dozens more are likely going to be infectious for at least two weeks.
"If you think about that 15, and you think about where we came from with the over 10 cases per day seven days... there's probably 50 plus people out there somewhere in metro Melbourne carrying the virus without knowing it," he told ABC Radio Melbourne host Raf Epstein this afternoon. |
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Well that's better than some people's claims that there are thousands of active cases still out there
But until they can actually track people's movements over the previous 14 days then I take a lot of 'mystery' cases with a grain of salt.
We know people lie to the contact tracers and always will, no matter how much they try and reassure them there will be no penalties.
Although its hard for anyone to listen a politician demanding people tell the truth... |
Which is the other reason why this government needs to support retail and hospitality in getting appropriate software to support tracing.
Up in Qld they're using a Salesforce platform with QR codes. To get entry into a premise you have to scan the code so you're now recorded as being present. No filling in false names and numbers on a paper sheet, factual information.
of course, this government is fiddling while we're locked down and the likely result will be another schemozzle with multiple disparate and manual systems making contact tracing a nightmare.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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1 new case (revised down from the 2 I originally reported - the other is a returning international traveller quarantining interstate) and no new deaths reported in Victoria.
The 7-day rolling average of cases was over 10 for the week ending 13 October and is about 2.1 for the week ending today.
As reported by DHHS this morning:
- 14 day rolling averages: Metro 6.4; Regional 0.5.
- Unknown source cases: Metro 13 ; Regional 0.
Last edited by Pies4shaw on Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:13 am; edited 2 times in total |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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^ Great news. There’s a light at the end of the tunnel.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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thats good news. i have no doubt there are a fair few cases that have not been reported, for starters some people dont have symptoms, and others just wont get tested, either they dont want to know, dont want to be locked down, dont want to stop work. but that would be in every community. Just have to hope if they infect people, those people dont feel that way.
as for how bad its been, its an interesting question. Icant imagine how the 2 weeks in the towers was for those people, and since my sister was on site for a lot of it, i do have some insight, and a lot of people handled it better than the news showed, but then good news doesnt equate with dollars sadly. She also commented how hard certain agencies and community groups worked to make life a bit better for them. One of the guys in a photography group lives in the towers, so his views were quite interesting too, although he didnt comment much, he seemed to spend a lot of time editing old shots. For me i cant even imagine living like that in the best of times, the closest ive got would be living in Wiltona Hostel for about 9 months when we moved to Australia, and i remember loving it there, it was like a big holiday camp, but it was only 2 storeys high!
I think it was hard on everyone for different reasons. And life is always what you make it to a point. P4S may well have a nice house, beach house, and a lambo, but losing your livelihood and not knowing what will happen is scary no matter where you are in life. He might have nice parks to walk around, but what if he had a sick relo he could not visit? It may be easier to cry in a lambo, but it doesnt make the stress any less real. There are 2 young widows in my immediate family, and the way they have handled it is completely different. And so is their current outlook. I did really well the first few weeks, but I admit the last 2 i had moments where i really didnt. Losing the little girl I was so close too probably didnt help, feeling so helpless, not being able to visit at the end. But too it was just about the isolation, even with a full house, the unknown. For some reason the 5 k thing killed me at the end, yet 2 days into 25 i havent left home! Tomorrow im taking my camera into the city, ill walk around with my sister while we eat lunch, it will be great to see her.
What really got to me was the constant barrage from some people on facebook or family group chats, for facebook i actually changed settings for some people so i dont see their posts. the anti Dan rants, OMG! And one friend carrying on about not seeing people her whole court is out nearly every night, they set up tables on the front lawn! She cracked it because i wouldnt visit one day, but wont get off her lazy arse to go for a walk! I have more thna one "friend" i have learnt about during this time!!
First lockdown when it was the whole country, you'd go for a walk and people were friendly, cyclists slowed down, people shusshed their dogs, this time around the us against them attitude seems to have permeated my walks. I walk everyday where the guy on the electric bike touched up a few women, and man I never realized how many dickheads around here have electric bikes! how are those things legal! the curfew didnt really bother me, it would have if it was summer im sure.
my point that everyone has been effected in some way, its been tough, the unknown, and how much we all get that depends on how we get things in normal times. There are plenty of unsympathetic people around, that never seem to have empathy for others.
I know im weird in that i always look for the Karma, the reason, the sign from what ever is up there, or mother nature, but gees, i dont think humanity has learnt much at all!
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Hear where you're coming from Jo. Everyone's different and copes differently.
I'm in a succession of meetings this morning to let people know if they have a job or not as a result of change processes. Fun and games when I'm unemployed after next week as well.
People have definitely been ground down by this but I haven't personally experienced much in public. I've had frequent positive comments on my Collingwood face masks and haven't had any grumpy experiences on my morning walk.
I've had both extremes on Facebook, the stand by dan evangalists and the give dan the boot shriekers, I generally ignore them both.
Personally, I've changed as a result of all this. I've enjoyed working from home and getting that commuting time back. I have zero desire to ever set foot on a train again, I just really want to be able to get back up to Toc and I want to be able to get my kids and grandson back over for a visit
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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