 |
|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
|
| Post subject: |  |
|
| David wrote: | Saw this today, from Twitter:
https://twitter.com/lochlanwatt/status/1317302087860932610
| Quote: | | On the same day Victoria recorded 723 cases back in July, the UK recorded 763. Today as Victoria records 1, the UK recorded 15,650. Don't ever let the people who called for the end of lockdown forget this. |
|
It’s always funny they never want to compare to any other state in Australia, why is that? |
|
|
|
 |
David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
... because they don't have out-of-control outbreaks, like the UK does? Since the first wave here, no other state has ever had figures that would warrant a lockdown response. Other countries have, and the numbers speak for themselves.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Yes Eddie. Well done. When comprehensively wrong, always change the subject. The tactic may or may not work, but it's much easier than changing your mind.
_________________
�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| David wrote: | | ... because they don't have out-of-control outbreaks, like the UK does? Since the first wave here, no other state has ever had figures that would warrant a lockdown response. Other countries have, and the numbers speak for themselves. |
I guess that's because the other states all had competent people running things so they didn't get outbreaks
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| Tannin wrote: | | Yes Eddie. Well done. When comprehensively wrong, always change the subject. The tactic may or may not work, but it's much easier than changing your mind. |
It’s not comprehensively wrong, the argument has always been there was no need for the draconian measures he applied.
No, every other state hasn’t had a massive outbreak, they’ve had competent governments, but no one has needed to go to the extremes Victoria did to stop it, the cases actually started going down before stage 4 even had a chance to take affect, yet that’s always ignored by those claiming it was the only choice.
But remember 11 weeks ago when we were told stage 3 was too slow and stage 4 would definitely do the trick in just 6 weeks? Yet here we are, 11 weeks later, still 2 more weeks to go...
Meanwhile Dans too busy attacking the Federal Government for decisions made by his own departments...There seems to be a lot of Victoria attending national meetings and not actually understanding what was discussed. |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| stui magpie wrote: | | David wrote: | | ... because they don't have out-of-control outbreaks, like the UK does? Since the first wave here, no other state has ever had figures that would warrant a lockdown response. Other countries have, and the numbers speak for themselves. |
I guess that's because the other states all had competent people running things so they didn't get outbreaks |
That's not the point of the Tweet I posted, though. It's about how the outbreaks were handled.
| eddiesmith wrote: | | Tannin wrote: | | Yes Eddie. Well done. When comprehensively wrong, always change the subject. The tactic may or may not work, but it's much easier than changing your mind. |
It’s not comprehensively wrong, the argument has always been there was no need for the draconian measures he applied.
No, every other state hasn’t had a massive outbreak, they’ve had competent governments, but no one has needed to go to the extremes Victoria did to stop it, the cases actually started going down before stage 4 even had a chance to take affect, yet that’s always ignored by those claiming it was the only choice. |
I guess it depends what you mean by "had a chance to take effect". Here's the timeline from the beginning of Stage 3:
-- STAGE 3 BEGINS
9/07: 156
10/07: 281
11/07: 181
12/07: 239
13/07: 168
14/07: 257
15/07: 224
16/07: 302
17/07: 415
18/07: 188
19/07: 343
20/07: 246
21/07: 347
22/07: 450
-- FACE MASKS BECOME MANDATORY IN MELBOURNE
23/07: 386
24/07: 280
25/07: 339
26/07: 437
27/07: 515
28/07: 353
29/07: 255
30/07: 694
31/07: 579
1/08: 354
2/08: 626
-- STAGE 4 BEGINS
3/08: 380
4/08: 398
5/08: 700
6/08: 434
7/08: 398
8/08: 416
9/08: 376
10/08: 298
11/08: 294
12/08: 395
13/08: 217
14/08: 371
15/08: 283
16/08: 247
When Stage 4 was announced on 2 August, the weekly average was 482. Three days later, on 5 August, it hit its highest point at 533, and six days later, on 8 August, it was still sitting on 479 (i.e. was basically holding steady). Only from 10 August do we see case numbers start to drop noticeably, and we're still getting numbers in the high 300s as late as 14 August. So while we can maybe look at the introduction of mandatory face masks on 22 July as a key factor in the (slight) early August decline, and then combining with the effects of Stage 4 restrictions thereafter, but I definitely don't think we have the data to demonstrate that case numbers would have dropped anyway if we'd stayed in Stage 3.
By contrast, we entered Stage 3 on a weekly average of 102 new cases per day, were on a weekly average of 327 two weeks later, and, as noted above, had hit 533 four weeks later – long after any reduction should have started to become apparent. So I think it was reasonable for the government to assess that cases would keep growing (or, at any rate, not go down nearly as quickly) if we had stayed at Stage 3.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
|
| Post subject: | |
|
The peak was 4 bad days well out of place with the others and finished 14 days after face masks became mandatory, in a virus with a 14 day cycle, numbers started to drop off again well before stage 4 had any affects at all.
But the whole argument from the Government was they wanted a quick fix, it was no longer about flattening the curve to ensure hospitals could cope, it was all about elimination and 6 weeks would do it, we are currently heading for a 13 week stage 4 lockdown, exactly what we were told was the reason we had to have stage 4 was so we weren’t in lockdown still in November... |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
^ But is it really plausible that we would be where we are now in terms of numbers if we'd just stayed at Stage 3? We can never know for sure, but I suspect we might still be looking at another month or more in lockdown if we had gone down that path.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
^
Look back, we had pretty much eliminated the virus in the community by end of May start of June (daily cases in single figures) without needing to go anywhere near this extreme lockdown.
On June 11 there was only 49 active cases in the state. It was only the incompetence in firstly the hotel quarantine process that let it out, then the contact tracing that let it explode.
Clearly once that had happened we needed to tighten up again, but most of what was done was utterly unjustifiable.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| David wrote: | | ^ But is it really plausible that we would be where we are now in terms of numbers if we'd just stayed at Stage 3? We can never know for sure, but I suspect we might still be looking at another month or more in lockdown if we had gone down that path. |
But a ‘lockdown’ where you can still go out to the shops, don’t have limits on exercise, no curfew or distance limits is very different and more liveable than that what we have endured.
Fact is they have chased an elimination strategy and yet flatly denied that’s been their goal. When it all began the national strategy was flatten the curve, get it to a stage where hospitals can cope with any demand. But that strategy never suited Dan and now we were alone in a second wave he could pursue his strategy if elimination.
Every other state is living it up and have for months whilst we are in the strictest lockdown seen in this country and have been for 15 weeks and yet people want us to say thank you Dan? The only argument anyone has is to compare us to other countries, because you compare us to other states it doesn’t look good for Dan.
Thank You Dan for starting this raging inferno then calling he fire brigade, such a hero to all Victorians |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
I don't care about whether Dan's a hero or not, though (in my books, he's just another politician with good and bad points). One of the most important qualities of a government is not just whether they're responsible for catastrophic stuff-ups (it happens), but, just as crucially, how they react to them when they occur. It's the same in football: do you want the player who just shanked a kick into the arms of the opposition to pound the turf and swear at themselves, or do you want them to run to the next contest and be accountable?
So the blame over the hotel quarantine program ("starting the fire") and the adequacy of the response to the outbreak that followed ("putting it out") have always been two distinct things in my mind, and it is the second that is being discussed here.
| stui magpie wrote: | ^
Look back, we had pretty much eliminated the virus in the community by end of May start of June (daily cases in single figures) without needing to go anywhere near this extreme lockdown.
On June 11 there was only 49 active cases in the state. It was only the incompetence in firstly the hotel quarantine process that let it out, then the contact tracing that let it explode.
Clearly once that had happened we needed to tighten up again, but most of what was done was utterly unjustifiable. |
No dispute about the incompetence that caused the second wave. But I think the first claim doesn't check out – we literally had six weeks of lockdown from mid March to the end of April. No, it wasn't quite as harsh as Stage 4 (although it wasn't all that much better), and no, it didn't last as long; but we also had far fewer total cases then (active cases were only ever in the hundreds at worst, compared to 8000 or so by mid August).
If there's one critique of Andrews we can levy in hindsight, it's that perhaps he should have just gone straight to Stage 4 the moment that things started to get out of hand again in late June. It would have been unpopular and seemed like an overreaction to many, but it's possible the second lockdown could have been over and done with in a few weeks again and we would have been out of the woods by sometime in August. Waiting definitely made this harder. But the irony is that this is the direct opposite of what many of his critics are suggesting, which is that we should have basically just let the virus keep spreading, implement some milder measures and keep our fingers crossed that we didn't end up like the UK.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:14 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| David wrote: | No dispute about the incompetence that caused the second wave. But I think the first claim doesn't check out – we literally had six weeks of lockdown from mid March to the end of April. No, it wasn't quite as harsh as Stage 4 (although it wasn't all that much better), and no, it didn't last as long; but we also had far fewer total cases then (active cases were only ever in the hundreds at worst, compared to 8000 or so by mid August).
If there's one critique of Andrews we can levy in hindsight, it's that perhaps he should have just gone straight to Stage 4 the moment that things started to get out of hand again in late June. It would have been unpopular and seemed like an overreaction to many, but it's possible the second lockdown could have been over and done with in a few weeks again and we would have been out of the woods by sometime in August. Waiting definitely made this harder. But the irony is that this is the direct opposite of what many of his critics are suggesting, which is that we should have basically just let the virus keep spreading, implement some milder measures and keep our fingers crossed that we didn't end up like the UK. |
The lockdown back in March/April was nothing by copmparison.
Retail was still open although hospitality was closed and I could still drive to NSW during that time, and did.
Active cases peaked at 530 on March 30 in the first wave and at 6776 on August 7th in the second wave.
The only justification for locking down as hard and for so long is that Andrews knew his contact tracing capability was shithouse and it's still way behind other states.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Well, I – like nearly everyone else on here – actually lived through this relatively recently, and I would hardly say it was "nothing by comparison". Still spent 95% of my time at home, still couldn't visit or see any friends, still couldn't go to the cinema or public events, still had to work from home (or, more accurately, had to try to work from home), still could only leave the house for limited reasons, still walked around in a daze during rare trips to the supermarket wondering what dystopian science fiction novel I'd found myself in. That was my experience of mid March to end of April: a radical change to life as I had known it up until then. Stage 4 at its peak was hardly a world away from that; if anything, it just felt like a return to more of the same with a few extra limitations on movement.
What was different in Stage 4 was the curfew (irrelevant), face masks (not actually a Stage 4 thing), the one-hour exercise limit (not massively different because there was pretty much nothing you could do outside before anyway apart from go for a long hike), not being able to go to a few more shops (the only ones I really missed this time around were the op shops; maybe this hit other people harder?) and the travel limit.
Otherwise, the border closures were, of course, not a Victorian government initiative this time around – you might want to take that one up with Gladys Berejiklian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kodc0H2neJE
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Different things I suppose.
I rarely eat out and don't go to movies so having them closed didn't bother me, nor did working from home, but pretty much every shop was open.
Masks are no issue, I was wearing a face covering well before they were mandatory anyway and I could still see my kids.
And don't worry, as soon as King Cnut removes the 25km limit I'll be into Gladys' office about getting into NSW or buying an inflatable dinghy.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
|
| Post subject: | |
|
There is no comparison between lockdown one and two. Hospitality was shut in both, umm, that’s it?
Working from home has been required the entire time whether in lockdown or not and will continue into next year
It was strange and daunting because it was different, but you still had some freedoms. Now you’ve had zero freedom for 11 weeks
The other rubbish was the locking down of regional Victoria when there was zero need for it to occur.
Also just to be accurate, it was mid May, I remember Dan would not even make a decision or announcement until after Mother’s Day because if he lifted any restrictions before then we’d all be responsible for murdering our mothers. Every other state had started lifting restrictions and you could go visit your mother, but not in Victoria, at least not legally...
No one listened and there was no increase in cases from it, what a shock! |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
|
The Rules
FAQ
Usergroups
Calendar
Search
Log in
Register
