Coronavirus II : The Virus Strikes Back

[David]

Here's the latest full table of cases.

25/01/2020 = 1 (1)
26/01/2020 = 1 (0)
27/01/2020 = 1 (0)
28/01/2020 = 1 (0)
29/01/2020 = 2 (1)
30/01/2020 = 3 (1)
31/01/2020 = 3 (0)
1/02/2020 = 4 (1)
2/02/2020 = 4 (0)
3/02/2020 = 4 (0)
4/02/2020 = 4 (0)
5/02/2020 = 4 (0)
6/02/2020 = 4 (0)
7/02/2020 = 4 (0)
8/02/2020 = 4 (0)
9/02/2020 = 4 (0)
10/02/2020 = 4 (0)
11/02/2020 = 4 (0)
12/02/2020 = 4 (0)
13/02/2020 = 4 (0)
14/02/2020 = 4 (0)
15/02/2020 = 4 (0)
16/02/2020 = 4 (0)
17/02/2020 = 4 (0)
18/02/2020 = 4 (0)
19/02/2020 = 4 (0)
20/02/2020 = 4 (0)
21/02/2020 = 4 (0)
22/02/2020 = 4 (0)
23/02/2020 = 4 (0)
24/02/2020 = 4 (0)
25/02/2020 = 4 (0)
26/02/2020 = 4 (0)
27/02/2020 = 4 (0)
28/02/2020 = 7 (3)
-- FIRST NEW VICTORIAN CASE IN ALMOST FOUR WEEKS
29/02/2020 = 8 (1)
1/03/2020 = 9 (1)
2/03/2020 = 9 (0)
3/03/2020 = 9 (0)
4/03/2020 = 10 (1)
5/03/2020 = 10 (0)
6/03/2020 = 10 (0)
7/03/2020 = 11 (1)
8/03/2020 = 12 (1)
9/03/2020 = 15 (3)
10/03/2020 = 19 (4)
11/03/2020 = 22 (3)
12/03/2020 = 27 (5)
-- FIRST INSTANCE OF COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION IN VICTORIA
13/03/2020 = 36 (9)
14/03/2020 = 49 (13)
15/03/2020 = 57 (8)
16/03/2020 = 71 (14)
-- VICTORIAN STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED; FIRST SET OF STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS IMPLEMENTED
17/03/2020 = 94 (23)
18/03/2020 = 121 (27)
19/03/2020 = 150 (29)
20/03/2020 = 178 (28)
21/03/2020 = 229 (51)
22/03/2020 = 296 (67)
23/03/2020 = 355 (59)
24/03/2020 = 411 (56)
25/03/2020 = 466 (55)
26/03/2020 = 520 (54)
27/03/2020 = 574 (54)
28/03/2020 = 685 (111)
29/03/2020 = 769 (84)
30/03/2020 = 821 (52)
31/03/2020 = 917 (96)
1/04/2020 = 968 (51)
2/04/2020 = 1,036 (68)
-- HIGHEST SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE OF CASES REACHED (74); BEGINNING OF FIRST DECLINE
3/04/2020 = 1,085 (49)
4/04/2020 = 1,115 (30)
5/04/2020 = 1,135 (20)
6/04/2020 = 1,158 (23)
7/04/2020 = 1,191 (33)
8/04/2020 = 1,212 (21)
9/04/2020 = 1,228 (16)
10/04/2020 = 1,241 (13)
11/04/2020 = 1,265 (24)
12/04/2020 = 1,268 (3)
13/04/2020 = 1,281 (13)
14/04/2020 = 1,291 (10)
15/04/2020 = 1,299 (8)
16/04/2020 = 1,301 (2)
17/04/2020 = 1,302 (1)
18/04/2020 = 1,319 (17)
19/04/2020 = 1,328 (9)
20/04/2020 = 1,329 (1)
21/04/2020 = 1,334 (5)
22/04/2020 = 1,336 (2)
23/04/2020 = 1,337 (1)
24/04/2020 = 1,343 (6)
25/04/2020 = 1,346 (3)
26/04/2020 = 1,348 (2)
27/04/2020 = 1,349 (1)
28/04/2020 = 1,351 (2)
-- LOWEST SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE OF NEW CASES REACHED (2.4)
29/04/2020 = 1,354 (3)
30/04/2020 = 1,361 (7)
1/05/2020 = 1,364 (3)
2/05/2020 = 1,371 (7)
3/05/2020 = 1,384 (13)
4/05/2020 = 1,406 (22)
5/05/2020 = 1,423 (17)
6/05/2020 = 1,440 (17)
7/05/2020 = 1,455 (15)
8/05/2020 = 1,468 (13)
9/05/2020 = 1,479 (11)
10/05/2020 = 1,489 (10)
11/05/2020 = 1,496 (7)
12/05/2020 = 1,507 (11)
-- FIRST VICTORIAN STATE OF EMERGENCY ENDS; RETURNS TO STAGE 1 RESTRICTIONS (UP TO FIVE GUESTS AT HOME; GATHERINGS OF UP TO TEN PERMITTED IN PUBLIC)
13/05/2020 = 1,512 (5)
14/05/2020 = 1,520 (8)
15/05/2020 = 1,540 (20)
16/05/2020 = 1,551 (11)
17/05/2020 = 1,558 (7)
18/05/2020 = 1,567 (9)
19/05/2020 = 1,573 (6)
20/05/2020 = 1,580 (7)
21/05/2020 = 1,581 (1)
22/05/2020 = 1,593 (12)
23/05/2020 = 1,602 (9)
24/05/2020 = 1,603 (1)
25/05/2020 = 1,605 (2)
26/05/2020 = 1,610 (5)
27/05/2020 = 1,618 (8)
28/05/2020 = 1,628 (10)
29/05/2020 = 1,634 (6)
30/05/2020 = 1,645 (11)
31/05/2020 = 1,649 (4)
-- RESTRICTIONS EASED FURTHER (20 GUESTS AT HOME)
1/06/2020 = 1,653 (4)
2/06/2020 = 1,663 (10)
3/06/2020 = 1,670 (7)
4/06/2020 = 1,678 (8)
5/06/2020 = 1,681 (3)
6/06/2020 = 1,681 (0)
7/06/2020 = 1,685 (4)
8/06/2020 = 1,687 (2)
9/06/2020 = 1,687 (0)
10/06/2020 = 1,691 (4)
-- SECOND-LOWEST SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE OF DAILY NEW CASES REACHED (3); NEW RISE IN CASE NUMBERS BEGINS
11/06/2020 = 1,699 (8)
12/06/2020 = 1,703 (4)
13/06/2020 = 1,711 (8)
14/06/2020 = 1,720 (9)
15/06/2020 = 1,732 (12)
16/06/2020 = 1,741 (9)
17/06/2020 = 1,762 (21)
18/06/2020 = 1,780 (18)
19/06/2020 = 1,792 (12)
20/06/2020 = 1,817 (25)
-- FIRST REINTRODUCTION OF RESTRICTIONS (HOUSEHOLD GATHERINGS LIMITED TO 5 AGAIN)
21/06/2020 = 1,836 (19)
22/06/2020 = 1,847 (11)
23/06/2020 = 1,864 (17)
24/06/2020 = 1,884 (20)
25/06/2020 = 1,917 (33)
26/06/2020 = 1,947 (30)
27/06/2020 = 1,987 (40)
28/06/2020 = 2,028 (41)
29/06/2020 = 2,099 (71)
30/06/2020 = 2,159 (60)
-- TEN MELBOURNE POSTCODES GO INTO LOCKDOWN
1/07/2020 = 2,231 (72)
2/07/2020 = 2,303 (72)
3/07/2020 = 2,368 (65)
4/07/2020 = 2,469 (101)
-- TWO MORE POSTCODES + PUBLIC HOUSING TOWERS GO INTO LOCKDOWN
5/07/2020 = 2,536 (67)
6/07/2020 = 2,660 (124)
7/07/2020 = 2,824 (164)
8/07/2020 = 2,942 (118)
-- ALL OF METROPOLITAN MELBOURNE RETURNS TO STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS
9/07/2020 = 3,098 (156)
10/07/2020 = 3,379 (281)
11/07/2020 = 3,560 (181)
12/07/2020 = 3,799 (239)
13/07/2020 = 3,967 (168)
14/07/2020 = 4,224 (257)
15/07/2020 = 4,448 (224)
16/07/2020 = 4,750 (302)
17/07/2020 = 5,165 (415)
18/07/2020 = 5,353 (188)
19/07/2020 = 5,696 (343)
20/07/2020 = 5,942 (246)
21/07/2020 = 6,289 (347)
22/07/2020 = 6,739 (450)
-- FACE MASKS BECOME MANDATORY IN MELBOURNE
23/07/2020 = 7,125 (386)
24/07/2020 = 7,405 (280)
25/07/2020 = 7,744 (339)
26/07/2020 = 8,181 (437)
27/07/2020 = 8,696 (515)
28/07/2020 = 9,049 (353)
29/07/2020 = 9,304 (255)
30/07/2020 = 9,998 (694)
31/07/2020 = 10,577 (579)
1/08/2020 = 10,931 (354)
2/08/2020 = 11,557 (626)
-- STATE OF DISASTER COMES INTO EFFECT WITH STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS INCLUDING CURFEWS + FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ON LEAVING HOME
3/08/2020 = 11,937 (380)
4/08/2020 = 12,335 (398)
5/08/2020 = 13,035 (700)
-- HIGHEST SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE OF NEW CASES REACHED (533 per day); BEGINNING OF DECLINE
6/08/2020 = 13,469 (434)
7/08/2020 = 13,867 (398)
8/08/2020 = 14,283 (416)
9/08/2020 = 14,659 (376)
10/08/2020 = 14,957 (298)
11/08/2020 = 15,251 (294)
12/08/2020 = 15,646 (395)
13/08/2020 = 15,863 (217)
14/08/2020 = 16,234 (371)
15/08/2020 = 16,517 (283)
16/08/2020 = 16,764 (247)
17/08/2020 = 17,027 (263)
18/08/2020 = 17,238 (211)
19/08/2020 = 17,446 (208)
20/08/2020 = 17,683 (237)
21/08/2020 = 17,852 (169)
22/08/2020 = 18,029 (177)
23/08/2020 = 18,231 (202)
24/08/2020 = 18,330 (99)
25/08/2020 = 18,464 (134)
26/08/2020 = 18,608 (144)
27/08/2020 = 18,714 (106)
28/08/2020 = 18,822 (108)
29/08/2020 = 18,903 (81)
30/08/2020 = 19,015 (112)
31/08/2020 = 19,080 (65)
1/09/2020 = 19,138 (58)
2/09/2020 = 19,224 (86)
3/09/2020 = 19,336 (112)
4/09/2020 = 19,415 (81)
5/09/2020 = 19,479 (64)
6/09/2020 = 19,538 (59)
7/09/2020 = 19,574 (36)
8/09/2020 = 19,615 (41)
9/09/2020 = 19,688 (73)
10/09/2020 = 19,728 (40)
11/09/2020 = 19,767 (39)
12/09/2020 = 19,800 (33)
13/09/2020 = 19,835 (35)
-- STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE BUT WITH SOME RELAXATIONS (E.G. DAILY EXERCISE TIME DOUBLED; SINGLE DWELLERS CAN NOMINATE SOCIAL CONTACT)
14/09/2020 = 19,872 (37)
15/09/2020 = 19,911 (39)
16/09/2020 = 19,943 (32)
17/09/2020 = 19,970 (27)
18/09/2020 = 20,012 (42)
19/09/2020 = 20,034 (22)
20/09/2020 = 20,042 (8)
21/09/2020 = 20,051 (9)
22/09/2020 = 20,076 (25)
23/09/2020 = 20,100 (24)
24/09/2020 = 20,105 (5)
25/09/2020 = 20,118 (13)
26/09/2020 = 20,129 (11)
27/09/2020 = 20,145 (16)
-- FURTHER RELAXATIONS OF RESTRICTIONS (CURFEW REMOVED; PUBLIC GATHERINGS OF UP TO 5 PEOPLE PERMITTED; CHILDCARE REOPENED)
28/09/2020 = 20,149 (4)
29/09/2020 = 20,158 (9)
30/09/2020 = 20,169 (11)
1/10/2020 = 20,183 (14)
2/10/2020 = 20,189 (6)
3/10/2020 = 20,197 (8)
4/10/2020 = 20,209 (12)
5/10/2020 = 20,220 (11)
6/10/2020 = 20,233 (13)
7/10/2020 = 20,237 (4)
8/10/2020 = 20,247 (10)
9/10/2020 = 20,257 (10)
10/10/2020 = 20,269 (12)
11/10/2020 = 20,281 (12)
12/10/2020 = 20,295 (14)
13/10/2020 = 20,305 (10)
14/10/2020 = 20,311 (6)
15/10/2020 = 20,315 (4)
16/10/2020 = 20,317 (2)
17/10/2020 = 20,317 (0)
18/10/2020 = 20,315 (–2)
-- FURTHER RESTRICTIONS EASED (NO OUTDOOR TIME LIMITS; TRAVEL RADIUS EXPANDED TO 25KM; UP TO 10 PEOPLE PERMITTED TO GATHER OUTDOORS)
19/10/2020 = 20,319 (4)
20/10/2020 = 20,320 (1)
-- LOWEST SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE SINCE 11 MARCH (2.1)

That last bit (achieved yesterday) is important – it's basically the first time we've gotten to pre-first wave numbers. I haven't included today's figure as there may be reclassifications later on in the day, but the provisional number of 3 takes us to a weekly average of 1.7 and to a fortnightly average of 6.1. Based on that, a total of 15 or fewer new cases over the next three days gets us under the targeted fortnightly average of 5 on Saturday 23/10/2020. Hopefully we'll get another announcement not long after that.

[David]

Also, active cases are down to 103 today.

[Pies4shaw]

^ That’s the metro figure. Statewide, it’s 109.

[David]

Oops, thanks for the correction!

[stui magpie]

That'a the tale of 2020 isn't it.

Look at those dates in hindsight, all the poor decisions and missed opportunities

[watt price tully]

FFS, is ignorance still an excuse this far down the pandemic? Parents need to be fined. How utterly stupid do you have to be 🙄🙄🙄

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/preston-school-closes-after-student-tests-positive-for-covid-19-20201021-p567d0.html

[Tannin]

^ Bloody same religious nut minority. Again. (You figure out which one.)

(Edited for typo)

[Tannin]

For all those Andrews-knockers - and indeed the Morrison-knockers like me - yesterday the UK recorded roughly the same number of Covid cases in a single day as the whole of Australian has recorded ever.

OK, the UK has more than double our population, just the same, it is an incredible disgrace, particularly when you remember that it has all the same natural advantages of being an island, plus a much better health care system.

[Tannin]

By the way, it's not a case of the UK doing worse on the virus in order to do better on the economy. According to a Bank of England economist, not locking down costs more than keeping people alive.

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-22/20-european-countries-record-highest-daily-covid-infections/12800772

[Pies4shaw]

Covid Live is reporting 5 new cases. Nothing official yet.

5 new cases would mean that the 7-day rolling average of cases was 9.7 for the week ending 15 October and is about 1.9 for the week ending today.

[Pies4shaw]

And the official figures are now in. 5 new cases and no new deaths reported in Victoria.

The 7-day rolling average of cases was over 9.7 for the week ending 15 October and is about 1.9 for the week ending today.

As reported by DHHS this morning:

- 14 day rolling averages: Metro 6.1; Regional 0.4.

- Unknown source cases: Metro 10 ; Regional 0.

[roar]

[K]

WaPo:

Volunteer in Oxford coronavirus vaccine trial dies, reportedly did not receive experimental vaccine


And...

Ireland is first European country to reimpose a lockdown amid a coronavirus resurgence

"From 12:01 Thursday morning, Ireland will enter a six-week lockdown that will include a raft of new restrictions. Schools, however, will remain open."

[K]

WaPo:

Masks significantly reduce our ‘cough clouds,’ study shows

"Wearing a mask can reduce the cloud of contaminated air a sick person ejects from their mouth as they cough by seven times, according to a new study* that measures the flow of air from coughing...

The effects were even greater in N95 respirators, the filtering masks that have become the world’s most reliable defense against the virus, and that remain in short supply. The study showed cough clouds were 23 times larger when a person is not wearing an N95 than when a person is, according to the study.
...

The study comes just days after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended new guidelines that all passengers on planes, trains, buses and other forms of public transit wear masks to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus."


* https://aip.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/5.0029186