Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

[Morrigu]

^ Yes K and there is wonderful collaboration with protocols being shared across the world. We await TGA/Government approval that will enable the Blood Service to collect convalescent plasma to enable trials in Australia.

[stui magpie]

Touch of humour (I think?) although the bloke on the couch really needs to get his hands off his face

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IJNbqA_JKI

[Wokko]

Boris Johnson 'Stable and in good spirits'.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52201048

[Pies4shaw]

All the better, no doubt, for refusing Trump’s absurd offer to have him treated with experimental drugs.

Seriously, though, I hope he’s OK - but the spokesman for Number 10 has to say that, not least because there seems to be some conflagration this morning in the UK within the Government about “chain of command”. They’d better get his illness sorted quickly or there will be people whining about why he’s taking up an intensive care bed if he doesn’t need intensive care.

[Jezza]

[Jezza]

Latest numbers

Confirmed (Deaths) - Recoveries

USA = 369,361 (11,032) - 20,003
Spain = 140,511 (13,897) - 43,208
Italy = 132,779 (16,578) - 22,837
Germany = 104,353 (1,851) - 36,294
France = 98,010 (8,911) - 17,250
China = 81,740 (3,331) - 77,184
Iran = 62,589 (3,872) - 27,039
UK = 51,608 (6,236) - 135
Turkey = 30,217 (649) - 1,326
Switzerland = 22,242 (815) - 8,056
...........................................................
Australia = 5,919 (48] - 2,547

1,364,581 confirmed cases
77,547 deaths
294,167 recoveries

Australia:
- Confirmed cases = 5,919
---- New South Wales = 2,686
---- Victoria = 1,191
---- Queensland = 934
---- Western Australia = 470
---- South Australia = 415
---- Tasmania = 98
---- ACT = 97
---- NT = 28
- Deaths = 48
- Recoveries = 2,547
- Case fatality rate = 0.81%

Active Cases = 992,867
- USA = 338,326
- Italy = 93,364
- Spain = 83,406
- France = 71,849
- Germany = 66,208
- UK = 45,237
- Iran = 31,678
- Turkey = 28,242
- Netherlands = 17,229
- Belgium = 16,002
............................................
- Australia = 3,324

[Jezza]

AUSTRALIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

31/03/2020 = 4,561 (311) = 7%
1/04/2020 = 4,864 (303) = 7%
2/04/2020 = 5,136 (272) = 6%
3/04/2020 = 5,362 (226) = 4%
4/04/2020 = 5,552 (190) = 4%
5/04/2020 = 5,693 (141) = 3%
6/04/2020 = 5,800 (107) = 2%
7/04/2020 = 5,919 (119) = 2%

2,547 recovered, 48 deaths.

Cases doubling every 11 days.

545 cases of community transmission nationwide.

VICTORIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

31/03/2020 = 917 (96) = 12%
1/04/2020 = 968 (51) = 6%
2/04/2020 = 1,036 (68] = 7%
3/04/2020 = 1,085 (49) = 5%
4/04/2020 = 1,115 (30) = 3%
5/04/2020 = 1,135 (20) = 2%
6/04/2020 = 1,158 (23) = 2%
7/04/2020 = 1,191 (33) = 3%

686 recovered, 11 deaths.

Cases doubling every 10 days in Victoria.

91 cases of community transmission in Victoria.

[K]

[K]

Here’s how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

https://theconversation.com/heres-how-scientists-are-tracking-the-genetic-evolution-of-covid-19-134201

"... I am among the many researchers now studying the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 because it can help researchers and public health officials track the spread of the virus over time.
...

RNA is a molecule similar to DNA, and it is essentially a temporary copy of a short segment of DNA. Specifically, in the central dogma of biology, DNA is transcribed into RNA. SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, meaning our DNA sequencing technologies cannot directly decode its sequence. However, scientists can first reverse transcribe the RNA of the virus into complementary DNA (or cDNA), which can then be sequenced.

Given a collection of viral genome sequences, we can use our models of sequence evolution to predict the virus’s history, and we can use this to answer questions like, “How fast do mutations occur?” or “Where in the genome do mutations occur?” Knowing which genes are mutating frequently can be useful in drug design.
...

Based on current data, it seems as though SARS-CoV-2 mutates much more slowly than the seasonal flu. Specifically, SARS-CoV-2 seems to have a mutation rate of less than 25 mutations per year, whereas the seasonal flu has a mutation rate of almost 50 mutations per year.

Given that the SARS-CoV-2 genome is almost twice as large as the seasonal flu genome, it seems as though the seasonal flu mutates roughly four times as fast as SARS-CoV-2. The fact that the seasonal flu mutates so quickly is precisely why it is able to evade our vaccines, so the significantly slower mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 gives us hope for the potential development of effective long-lasting vaccines against the virus."

[K]

Among many one-month-old articles:

Coronavirus researchers claim virus has split into two strains, but many experts disagree

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-03-06/coronavirus-two-strains-infection-study/12023822

Updated 10 March 2020 at 1:26 pm

"A joint study by researchers from multiple Chinese universities, which has been accepted by Chinese journal National Science Review, looked at 103 genomes of SARS-CoV-2 and found the virus had evolved into two separate strains, known as "S" and "L", with the "L" type being newer, more prevalent and more aggressive.
...

In contrast, other experts in the field say the two types the Chinese researchers claimed to have identified were a result of both normal viral mutation and errors in data that they were relying on.
...

"[The differences] are sequence errors which in fact were corrected [by the submitting scientist] very soon after they were originally uploaded to the GISAID database," Professor Mackay said.
...

"They're almost all identical. It's like us putting on different clothes from day to day," Professor Mackay said.

"I can't believe this has been peer reviewed. It's a weak paper and poor science."
...

"Two of the key claims made by this paper appear to have been reached by misunderstanding and over-interpretation of the SARS-CoV-2 data, with an additional analysis suffering from methodological limitations," Dr Maclean wrote.

On Twitter, Swiss biologist Richard Neher wrote of the paper that "just taking values at face values will result in wrong, misleading, or downright dangerous inferences"."

[K]

Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

5 March 2020

"Two strains of the new coronavirus are spreading around the world, according to an analysis of 103 cases. But the World Health Organization insists that “there is no evidence that the virus has been changing”. So how many strains are there, and why does it matter?

Viruses are always mutating, especially RNA viruses like this one, coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. When a person is infected with the coronavirus, it replicates in their respiratory tract. Every time it does, around half a dozen genetic mutations occur, says Ian Jones at the University of Reading, UK.
...

“There do appear to be two different strains,” says Ravinder Kanda at Oxford Brookes University in the UK. ...

“I think it’s a fact that there are two strains,” says Erik Volz at Imperial College London. “It’s normal for viruses to undergo evolution when they are transmitted to a new host.”
...

The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other.

“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.” The sentiment is echoed by the World Health Organization. The study by Tang and colleagues only suggests there is some genetic diversity of the virus – it doesn’t mean it is changing, a representative told New Scientist.
...

Jones says we can expect more strains to emerge. Epidemiologists generally agree that, once a person is infected with the coronavirus, they are unlikely to be infected again – unless the virus mutates to allow it to overcome the immune system’s defences.

This “selection pressure” could lead to the outbreak of a new strain, says Jones. This is the case with seasonal flu – new variants crop up every year that can infect people whether or not they’ve had flu in the past.

We could see the same pattern emerge for the new coronavirus in the coming years, says Jones. “I don’t see it going away any time soon.”"

[David]

Can't agree more with this piece on the draconian social distancing laws that the states have introduced:

https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/04/07/coronavirus-distancing-tests-law/

[Tannin]

WTF is a "booty call"?

[David]

A sexcapade, aka what the kids (used to?) call "Netflix and chill", or the enactment of a "u up?" message.

In all seriousness, I think Bradley is making a slightly exaggerated reference to the Victorian exemption for visiting romantic partners; I'm not actually sure whether one-night stands are covered by the policy. (Oh, and if you really want to know the origin of the phrase, here's an interesting article on it: https://www.esquire.com/lifestyle/sex/a46054/the-lost-history-of-the-booty-call/)

[Pies4shaw]

49: A Victorian woman in her 80s has died in hospital.

50:A 62-year-old woman has become the second person to die from coronavirus in South Australia. She is said to have caught the disease on the Ruby Princess cruise ship.