 |
|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
David 
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
|
| Post subject: |  |
|
| K wrote: | | Jezza wrote: | | think positive wrote: | 100 pages since this post on Jan 25th...
how many pages do you think we will get to?
... |
By the time this is over, I believe we will be pushing 1000 
...
I never thought it would blow up like this. |
Within two months it will become the longest one-topic thread on Nick's, with only two thousand-topic VPT threads ahead of it.
If it gets over 857(+) pages, it'll be in unknown territory. Hope it copes tech-wise. Some Nicksters are convinced merging of posts into threads is the cause of tech problems long threads can have... Unfortunately, this thread has already had (ill-advised) mergings. We'll see... |
I'm sure the mods will cope okay with this, K – but thanks for your concern. 
_________________
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
|
|
|
 |
stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Re the modelling
| Quote: | Speaking after today’s national cabinet meeting, Mr Morrison and Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy unveiled the modelling used by the government to decide on how to respond to the pandemic.
Mr Morrison said the daily growth rate of new coronavirus cases had fallen rapidly and sooner that the government had expected.
“We must hold the course, we must lock in these gains,” he said.
“It is providing us with much-needed time. We have so far avoided the horror scenarios that we have seen overseas.”
“We cannot be complacent ... This Easter weekend will be incredibly important. Stay at home.”
If people did not stay home, it would undo all the work that has been done in slowing the transmission of the virus, Mr Morrison said.
The modelling was completed for the national cabinet by the Doherty Institute in Melbourne.
Two papers, to be published this afternoon, detail a worst-case theoretical scenario and an analysis of the risk of people travelling into Australian from other countries.
Chief Medical Officer Professor Brendan Murphy said the modelling was “theoretical” and based on the international experience.
But he said it was clear Australia was now “flattening the curve” of the spread of the virus.
The worst-case scenario considered an uncontrolled pandemic where up to 90 per cent of the population contracted the virus.
Prof Murphy said the model then examined how quarantine, isolation and social distancing measures could mitigate that to prevent hospitals being overrun with patients needing intensive care. |
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/coronavirus-new-warning-on-community-transmission-cases/news-story/f0c9952128f163703942ecee8b7debe1
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Will the modelling tell us if we are getting the fight against COVID-19 right? Probably not
https://www.theage.com.au/national/will-the-modelling-tell-us-if-we-are-getting-the-fight-against-covid-19-right-probably-not-20200406-p54hhz.html
"If I’ve learnt one thing, it’s that disagreement among health experts is the rule rather than the exception. The disagreement may be stronger when the stakes are high and the facts of the disease are uncertain.
...
For the models of COVID-19 in Australia, they draw on information from outbreaks in Wuhan, Italy or on cruise ships, some of which may or may not be relevant to communities across Australia.
Minor variations in these numerical values can have major impacts on the numbers of cases or deaths predicted. Hence the adage “all models are wrong, some are useful”. They are at best, guesstimates to be used as guides to decision making.
...
What is the financial value of the loss of a life or of an episode of domestic violence? The estimate will vary widely depending on who makes those estimates. Our decisions about what value we are willing to attribute to other people and their lives tells us something very important about how we function as a society. Health experts should be working with ethicists, philosophers and social scientists in developing a range of models.
And there are likely to be disagreements. As a public health decision maker, I have always trusted experts who conveyed their uncertainties and surfaced their assumptions and value judgments.
...
I’m not concerned that the experts disagree. I am concerned that the decision makers represent such a narrow slice of Australia. A national response on this scale with an uncertain endpoint needs the co-opted advice of the community that is affected, and its representatives." |
|
|
|
|
Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| K wrote: | | Within two months it will become the longest one-topic thread on Nick's |
Naah. Not possible. Nothing could be longer than the Travis Cloke contract renegotiation thread. That one thread was longer than the whole of recorded human history.
... at least it seemed that way at the time ...
_________________
�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
|
|
|
|
K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
|
| Post subject: | |
|
You could summarize the Trav thread, which did not make it to 200 pages, in just two representative views....
ANNODAM: "I think he will stay!"
RudeBoy: "He should get f****d!" |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| ^ At least that one was about something. Cloke didn't stay after any of those contract re-negotiations. We might have won a flag in 2010 if he hadn't taken Essendon's offer and left. |
|
|
|
|
K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
|
| Post subject: | |
|
What would Trav have looked like if he'd gone to Essendon and taken their drugs? Very big and green with tight ripped purple pants?
....................................
Meanwhile, we still await the Doherty Institute report. There's not much time left in "this afternoon".
What the Doherty Institute is:
https://www.doherty.edu.au/about/overview
They do have their influenza "Report No. 1: Week ending 22 March 2020" up, though:
https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/2020_VicSPIN_report_1.pdf
Last edited by K on Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:49 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| 46: A Tasmanian man in his 80s, who was a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship, has died from coronavirus. |
|
|
|
|
think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| K wrote: | You could summarize the Trav thread, which did not make it to 200 pages, in just two representative views....
ANNODAM: "I think he will stay!"
RudeBoy: "He should get f****d!" |
heheheh! thats about right too!
_________________
You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
|
|
|
|
swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Are their different strains of COVID-19?
Can you physically contact or inhale a larger "dose" of the virus that will lead to worse health outcomes?
Now while I appreciate that most passengers on the Ruby Princess are elderly and in a high risk category it still seems like being in that environment of a cruise ship is leading to higher rates of serious illness or death than those elderly in the wider population.
Perhaps it's just the perception I have currently and it's a wrong one but this virus whether it be because of exposure levels or something deeper like ones physiological makeup the degrees to which it affects people is widely different and it's not just the elderly.
_________________
He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| Pies4shaw wrote: | | 46: A Tasmanian man in his 80s, who was a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship, has died from coronavirus. |
Scrolling down the page, at first I thought the bolded bit was your response to K's question about what Cloke would look like if he went to Essendon.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| swoop42 wrote: | Are their different strains of COVID-19?
Can you physically contact or inhale a larger "dose" of the virus that will lead to worse health outcomes?
Now while I appreciate that most passengers on the Ruby Princess are elderly and in a high risk category it still seems like being in that environment of a cruise ship is leading to higher rates of serious illness or death than those elderly in the wider population.
Perhaps it's just the perception I have currently and it's a wrong one but this virus whether it be because of exposure levels or something deeper like ones physiological makeup the degrees to which it affects people is widely different and it's not just the elderly. |
Interesting article on that topic, it can effect people differently and at the moment they don't know why
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| 47 and 48: A woman in her 70s has died in Royal Perth Hospital, and a man in his 70s has died at Joondalup Health Campus. |
|
|
|
|
Morrigu
Joined: 11 Aug 2001
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| Some really interesting work being undertaken by the world’s blood services including ours with regard to convalescent plasma from recovered COVID-19 patients. Trials are being planned obviously dependant on Government approval but could be very helpful * fingers crossed* |
|
|
|
|
K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
|
| Post subject: | |
|
Trials started in the Netherlands last week or the week before.
It's all over the Dutch news.
Okay..., they do have some in English:
https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/25/plasma-recovered-coronavirus-patients-help-new-covid-19-cases-blood-banks (25/3)
.................................................................................
And from the same newspaper:
ANTIVIRAL MEDS FOR CORONAVIRUS SHOULD HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED AFTER SARS: DUTCH VIROLOGIST
https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/07/antiviral-meds-coronavirus-developed-sars-dutch-virologist
'"We dropped the ball after the first SARS outbreak," Eric Snijder, professor of molecular virology at the Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC), said to WNL Op Saterdag. If lessons had be learnt from that coronavirus outbreak, antiviral meds could have been ready to help with the Covid-19 outbreak, he said.
According to Snijder, one of the scientists at LUMC currently working on a vaccine against the coronavirus, antivirals are the "only approach that you can have ready in advance". Such virus inhibitors can be developed to work against the entire group of coronaviruses, he explained.
"You could block it with the same type of molecule. You generally put that type of medicine on the shelf and use it when necessary. While you can only get started on a vaccine when the exact type of virus has turned up," Snijder said.'
[Yep, totally agree. The whole world dropped the ball. Six outbreaks in the last 26 years, according to Sci. Am. There are no excuses for the world doing nothing to prepare for one of them to turn into a pandemic.] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
|
The Rules
FAQ
Usergroups
Calendar
Search
Log in
Register
